Regression board

Luck Meter: who is running hot, and who is due

Every NHL skater's goals, points and on-ice results compared with what his shots, ice time and history say to expect. A positive meter means the results are ahead of the process (sell high); a negative meter means they are behind it (buy low).

2025-26 regular season, 828 skaters · updated Oct 2, 2026 · model xG in 100% of player-games (the rest use shot volume × league shooting %) · talent baselines from 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25 plus 2025-26.

Sell high: running hottest

Anthony ManthaR · PIT+85Sell high
Shooting 21.7% vs 14.1% expected (+11.6 G) · Team shoots 13.4% with him on at 5v5 vs 9.5% expected
Kaapo KakkoR · SEA+85Sell high
40 points vs 23.6 expected (+16.4) · Team shoots 12.0% with him on at 5v5 vs 8.7% expected
Justin FaulkD · DET+78Sell high
Shooting 10.8% vs 5.7% expected (+7.6 G) · 40 points vs 27.9 expected (+12.1)
Pavel ZachaC · BOS+78Sell high
Shooting 22.9% vs 16.2% expected (+8.8 G) · Team shoots 13.0% with him on at 5v5 vs 9.7% expected
Macklin CelebriniC · SJS+77Sell high
Team shoots 12.7% with him on at 5v5 vs 10.0% expected · 115 points vs 94.9 expected (+20.1)

Buy low: running coldest

Brandon TanevL · UTA-87Buy low
Shooting 0.0% vs 9.2% expected (−3.9 G) · Team shoots 4.4% with him on at 5v5 vs 8.3% expected
Kent JohnsonC · CBJ-81Buy low
Shooting 6.1% vs 12.4% expected (−7.1 G) · 22 points vs 34.8 expected (−12.8)
Joseph VelenoC · MTL-80Buy low
Shooting 3.8% vs 10.8% expected (−3.6 G) · 5 points vs 13.5 expected (−8.5)
Phillip DanaultL · MTL-78Buy low
Shooting 6.6% vs 12.1% expected (−5.0 G) · Points on 39.5% of on-ice goals vs 61.6% expected
Ville KoivunenR · PIT-76Buy low
Team shoots 4.7% with him on at 5v5 vs 8.7% expected · Shooting 5.6% vs 12.6% expected (−2.5 G)

Anthony Mantha: points vs expected, game by game

64 points against 49.0 expected (+15.0). The band is ±1σ of the expectation.

Actual points
Expected
±1σ
Above expected
Below expected

The board

PositionTeamTagMin GPFantasy-relevant only (14:00+ TOI or 0.5+ P/GP)488 players

Show

Luck Meter: skaters sorted by meter. Positive meter means running hot.
Player	Team	GP	P	P − xP					Meter	L20	Rost %	Tag
Mattias SamuelssonD	BUF	78	41	+14.6	11.9% (7.0%)	12.0%	1036	39%	+88	2	78%▲8.5	Hold*
Anthony ManthaR	PIT	81	64	+15.0	21.7% (14.1%)	13.4%	1032	67%	+85	86	53%▲16	Sell high
Kaapo KakkoR	SEA	65	40	+16.4	16.7% (13.7%)	12.0%	1055	73%	+85	92	17%▲16	Sell high
Alex NewhookC	MTL	42	25	+7.8	21.3% (13.8%)	17.4%	1078	66%	+84	51	26%▲23	Hold*
William NylanderR	TOR	65	79	+21.6	19.2% (14.7%)	13.6%	1017	78%	+83	29	99%▼0.8	Hold*
Viktor ArvidssonL	BOS	69	54	+14.0	14.3% (13.0%)	14.0%	1065	71%	+82	84	32%▲23	Hold*
Justin FaulkD	DET	78	40	+12.1	10.8% (5.7%)	9.3%	996	50%	+78	59	55%▼22	Sell high
Pavel ZachaC	BOS	78	65	+12.3	22.9% (16.2%)	13.0%	1036	62%	+78	95	77%▲12	Sell high
Alex TuchR	BUF	79	66	+11.5	16.9% (12.7%)	12.5%	1044	67%	+77	59	94%▼5	Hold*
Zach WerenskiD	CBJ	75	81	+21.4	8.5% (6.8%)	10.0%	1006	64%	+77	-16	100%▲0.5	Hold*
Martin NecasC	COL	78	100	+14.3	18.4% (15.4%)	12.4%	1054	67%	+77	4	100%▲1.7	Hold*
Macklin CelebriniC	SJS	82	115	+20.1	15.7% (13.6%)	12.7%	1036	85%	+77	37	100%▲1	Sell high
Mark ScheifeleC	WPG	82	103	+22.4	20.6% (18.7%)	13.0%	1022	77%	+76	19	100%	Sell high
Ben HuttonD	VGK	55	15	+4.6	8.5% (3.4%)	11.7%	1000	39%	+76	-29	—	Hold*
Jakob ChychrunD	WSH	80	60	+6.6	11.8% (9.6%)	11.9%	1049	50%	+76	44	99%	Sell high
Ryker EvansD	SEA	67	17	+1.3	17.4% (5.3%)	11.7%	1033	29%	+74	21	14%▲13	Hold*
Josh MorrisseyD	WPG	77	55	+10.9	9.6% (6.2%)	11.5%	1026	47%	+73	3	99%▲3.2	Sell high
Marcus JohanssonL	MIN	75	49	+15.8	14.0% (13.4%)	11.2%	1035	65%	+71	23	0.8%	Hold*
Adrian KempeL	LAK	81	73	+15.2	15.9% (13.5%)	10.5%	1027	74%	+71	81	97%	Sell high
Darren RaddyshD	TBL	73	70	+11.2	10.4% (7.7%)	11.1%	1017	54%	+70	19	100%▲3.7	Hold*
Charlie McAvoyD	BOS	69	61	+16.3	9.9% (8.8%)	12.4%	1026	49%	+70	57	96%▲5.9	Sell high
Ryan McDonaghD	TBL	48	21	+4.8	15.4% (6.5%)	11.2%	1019	47%	+69	24	7.3%▲6.8	Hold*
Ryan SheaD	PIT	80	35	+9.2	8.3% (7.3%)	13.2%	1042	39%	+69	78	15%▲9.6	Hold*
Rasmus AnderssonD	VGK	81	47	+12.4	9.6% (6.7%)	9.5%	995	46%	+68	46	94%▼3.9	Hold*
Matt BoldyL	MIN	76	85	+11.1	16.5% (13.1%)	10.7%	1031	71%	+68	13	100%	Sell high
Oliver Ekman-LarssonD	TOR	78	39	+10.1	7.4% (5.3%)	11.9%	1018	39%	+67	-31	43%▲32	Hold*
John MarinoD	UTA	80	36	+8.1	7.3% (7.2%)	13.2%	1044	38%	+67	11	18%▲13	Sell high
Cole CaufieldR	MTL	81	88	+9.2	19.8% (16.7%)	12.6%	1042	69%	+67	52	100%▲1.3	Sell high
Evan BouchardD	EDM	82	95	+21.1	9.5% (8.6%)	10.9%	997	54%	+66	45	100%	Hold*
Sidney CrosbyC	PIT	68	74	+13.0	18.1% (14.0%)	12.1%	1016	71%	+65	11	100%▲2.4	Sell high
Mario FerraroD	SJS	82	23	+5.4	7.4% (4.0%)	9.7%	1007	34%	+65	68	15%▼2.1	Sell high
Rasmus DahlinD	BUF	77	74	+15.8	9.7% (9.1%)	10.7%	1020	56%	+65	69	100%▲0.8	Hold*
Alexandre CarrierD	MTL	73	22	+2.7	12.5% (5.5%)	11.8%	1010	36%	+64	62	12%▲10	Hold*
Jamie BennL	DAL	60	36	+8.8	20.8% (16.1%)	12.8%	1038	66%	+63	3	21%▲17	Sell high
Logan StanleyD	BUF	76	26	+6.2	9.4% (5.9%)	9.6%	1016	49%	+63	-9	6.6%▲5.9	Sell high
Vladislav GavrikovD	NYR	82	35	+7.5	11.8% (7.0%)	8.2%	997	44%	+62	31	41%▼6	Hold*
Egor ChinakhovR	PIT	72	42	+8.1	15.0% (12.7%)	11.2%	1017	74%	+61	76	48%▲39	Hold*
Shayne GostisbehereD	CAR	55	50	+13.0	11.2% (8.9%)	10.1%	984	61%	+60	55	95%▲16	Sell high
Henri JokiharjuD	BOS	41	15	+6.2	5.0% (4.0%)	11.9%	1014	40%	+60	81	0.1%	Hold*
Esa LindellD	DAL	82	32	+5.4	7.2% (6.5%)	12.4%	1038	36%	+59	43	37%▼31	Hold*
Alexander WennbergC	SJS	80	55	+12.8	19.4% (14.4%)	8.9%	980	60%	+57	68	25%▼1.5	Hold*
Robert ThomasC	STL	64	64	−0.2	24.5% (18.4%)	13.1%	1045	73%	+57	68	93%▲20	Hold*
Brock FaberD	MIN	80	51	+11.2	8.7% (6.4%)	9.8%	1001	44%	+57	6	95%▼3.6	Hold*
Brent BurnsD	COL	82	35	+1.4	7.0% (3.7%)	10.1%	1021	41%	+56	18	50%▼14	Sell high
Adam LarssonD	SEA	82	25	+6.9	6.6% (4.1%)	8.8%	999	38%	+56	29	23%▼19	Sell high
Miro HeiskanenD	DAL	77	63	+13.4	6.1% (5.5%)	10.5%	1017	48%	+56	26	99%▲4	Sell high
Nick JensenD	OTT	61	17	+2.7	11.1% (4.5%)	12.1%	991	32%	+55	76	0.0%	Sell high
Casey MittelstadtC	BOS	71	42	+5.5	18.8% (16.6%)	13.3%	1038	57%	+55	6	13%▲11	Hold*
Jake SandersonD	OTT	67	54	+11.9	9.5% (7.7%)	9.5%	997	48%	+55	-5	99%▲3.2	Hold*
Denton MateychukD	CBJ	75	31	+4.4	14.8% (8.5%)	9.7%	1006	46%	+55	38	42%▲40	Hold*

* Tag softened to Hold: his role or shot diet moved the same way as his results, so part of the streak may be real.

Goalies: save % luck and GSAx by shot class

Save percentage against a talent estimate shrunk toward league average, goals saved above average with a 90% interval, and goals saved above expected by shot class for the games our sequence engine has processed so far.

Goalie luck: save percentage vs talent estimate, goals saved above average and above expected by shot class, with 90% intervals.
Goalie	GP	Shots		Talent SV%	Luck (pts)	GSAA ± 90%		Tag
Scott WedgewoodCOL	45	1093	.921	.904	+17.7	+28.2 ± 16.6	+22.4 ± 16.4 (45 GP) Rebound: +6.5 ± 6.0 on 165 attempts Transition: +0.0 ± 4.7 on 179 attempts Cycle: +12.0 ± 10.4 on 668 attempts Off the draw: −2.9 ± 2.8 on 92 attempts Other: +6.8 ± 9.8 on 585 attempts	Sell high
Dennis HildebyTOR	20	548	.912	.897	+15.4	+9.3 ± 11.8	+9.9 ± 12.0 (20 GP) Rebound: +2.9 ± 4.8 on 99 attempts Transition: −0.2 ± 3.1 on 66 attempts Cycle: +3.2 ± 7.1 on 325 attempts Off the draw: +1.2 ± 1.7 on 42 attempts Other: +2.9 ± 7.6 on 321 attempts	Sell high
Jesper WallstedtMIN	35	1020	.915	.900	+15.1	+19.6 ± 16.1	+13.0 ± 15.8 (35 GP) Rebound: +0.3 ± 5.7 on 135 attempts Transition: +3.3 ± 4.0 on 132 attempts Cycle: +5.8 ± 10.0 on 627 attempts Off the draw: −2.0 ± 2.8 on 105 attempts Other: +5.6 ± 9.6 on 528 attempts	Sell high
Devin CooleyCGY	31	847	.909	.897	+11.9	+11.5 ± 14.6	+16.4 ± 15.2 (31 GP) Rebound: +2.4 ± 6.0 on 160 attempts Transition: −0.5 ± 4.3 on 116 attempts Cycle: +2.8 ± 9.1 on 473 attempts Off the draw: +2.0 ± 2.3 on 59 attempts Other: +9.7 ± 9.4 on 478 attempts	Sell high
Jacob FowlerMTL	17	448	.908	.897	+11.3	+5.8 ± 10.7	+10.0 ± 11.1 (17 GP) Rebound: +1.9 ± 4.1 on 81 attempts Transition: −0.8 ± 3.2 on 61 attempts Cycle: +5.7 ± 6.8 on 258 attempts Off the draw: −0.1 ± 1.5 on 20 attempts Other: +3.4 ± 7.0 on 255 attempts	Sell high
Ukko-Pekka LuukkonenBUF	35	930	.909	.898	+10.3	+12.2 ± 15.3	+9.9 ± 15.4 (35 GP) Rebound: +3.1 ± 6.0 on 151 attempts Transition: −0.4 ± 3.8 on 124 attempts Cycle: +0.4 ± 9.2 on 536 attempts Off the draw: +2.5 ± 2.9 on 99 attempts Other: +4.4 ± 9.6 on 509 attempts	Sell high
Justus AnnunenNSH	28	711	.906	.897	+8.9	+7.3 ± 13.4	+11.9 ± 13.9 (28 GP) Rebound: +0.1 ± 5.2 on 99 attempts Transition: +0.2 ± 3.3 on 86 attempts Cycle: +2.1 ± 8.9 on 434 attempts Off the draw: +1.8 ± 2.1 on 74 attempts Other: +7.6 ± 8.5 on 419 attempts	Sell high
Dan VladarPHI	52	1283	.906	.897	+8.8	+13.0 ± 18.0	+8.5 ± 18.0 (52 GP) Rebound: +4.5 ± 6.6 on 200 attempts Transition: −2.3 ± 4.7 on 162 attempts Cycle: +8.0 ± 11.6 on 810 attempts Off the draw: −1.8 ± 2.4 on 94 attempts Other: +0.1 ± 10.9 on 747 attempts	Sell high
Joel HoferSTL	46	1250	.909	.902	+7.0	+16.6 ± 17.8	+17.2 ± 18.0 (46 GP) Rebound: +0.3 ± 7.1 on 172 attempts Transition: +2.0 ± 4.5 on 152 attempts Cycle: +10.7 ± 11.0 on 750 attempts Off the draw: +2.5 ± 3.0 on 126 attempts Other: +1.7 ± 11.2 on 750 attempts	Hold
Colten EllisBUF	16	455	.903	.896	+6.8	+3.5 ± 10.7	+1.0 ± 10.5 (16 GP) Rebound: −1.0 ± 4.5 on 74 attempts Transition: +0.3 ± 2.9 on 59 attempts Cycle: +1.7 ± 6.3 on 235 attempts Off the draw: +0.7 ± 1.3 on 40 attempts Other: −0.7 ± 6.4 on 257 attempts	Hold
Alex LyonBUF	36	979	.906	.900	+6.3	+10.3 ± 15.7	+10.3 ± 15.9 (36 GP) Rebound: +0.7 ± 6.4 on 166 attempts Transition: −0.5 ± 4.1 on 137 attempts Cycle: +3.9 ± 9.9 on 582 attempts Off the draw: +2.5 ± 2.6 on 84 attempts Other: +3.6 ± 9.6 on 537 attempts	Hold
Anton ForsbergLAK	36	952	.909	.903	+6.0	+12.5 ± 15.5	+6.6 ± 15.3 (36 GP) Rebound: +2.4 ± 5.9 on 161 attempts Transition: −0.7 ± 4.0 on 117 attempts Cycle: +0.8 ± 9.6 on 584 attempts Off the draw: −2.6 ± 2.5 on 83 attempts Other: +6.8 ± 9.2 on 518 attempts	Hold
Philipp GrubauerSEA	32	866	.909	.903	+5.9	+11.5 ± 14.8	+9.1 ± 14.8 (32 GP) Rebound: +0.5 ± 5.6 on 144 attempts Transition: +2.5 ± 4.3 on 111 attempts Cycle: +6.3 ± 9.2 on 536 attempts Off the draw: +1.6 ± 2.1 on 56 attempts Other: −1.8 ± 9.0 on 481 attempts	Hold
Logan ThompsonWSH	58	1587	.912	.906	+5.7	+25.8 ± 20.0	+33.2 ± 20.7 (58 GP) Rebound: +3.1 ± 8.0 on 281 attempts Transition: +2.9 ± 6.1 on 241 attempts Cycle: +17.4 ± 13.2 on 1003 attempts Off the draw: +2.6 ± 3.0 on 109 attempts Other: +7.2 ± 12.1 on 827 attempts	Hold
Jet GreavesCBJ	55	1539	.908	.903	+4.7	+18.8 ± 19.7	+16.3 ± 19.9 (55 GP) Rebound: +9.5 ± 7.4 on 230 attempts Transition: +1.5 ± 5.3 on 180 attempts Cycle: +2.8 ± 12.4 on 940 attempts Off the draw: −1.5 ± 3.4 on 164 attempts Other: +4.2 ± 12.1 on 866 attempts	Hold
Jakub DobesMTL	43	1187	.901	.898	+3.1	+7.0 ± 17.3	+12.3 ± 17.9 (43 GP) Rebound: +3.9 ± 7.3 on 234 attempts Transition: +1.4 ± 4.8 on 143 attempts Cycle: +6.6 ± 10.9 on 690 attempts Off the draw: +0.9 ± 2.2 on 70 attempts Other: −0.5 ± 10.9 on 680 attempts	Hold
Spencer KnightCHI	55	1583	.902	.900	+2.1	+10.4 ± 20.0	+13.8 ± 20.5 (55 GP) Rebound: +6.3 ± 8.3 on 282 attempts Transition: +2.1 ± 5.0 on 190 attempts Cycle: +5.6 ± 12.7 on 943 attempts Off the draw: +2.3 ± 2.9 on 126 attempts Other: −2.4 ± 12.4 on 882 attempts	Hold
Jeremy SwaymanBOS	55	1571	.907	.905	+1.8	+18.1 ± 19.9	+24.7 ± 20.6 (55 GP) Rebound: +1.5 ± 8.3 on 286 attempts Transition: +5.6 ± 5.1 on 191 attempts Cycle: +8.2 ± 12.7 on 930 attempts Off the draw: −2.3 ± 3.1 on 140 attempts Other: +11.6 ± 12.5 on 881 attempts	Hold
Casey DeSmithDAL	30	760	.907	.905	+1.6	+8.4 ± 13.9	+6.0 ± 13.8 (30 GP) Rebound: −4.5 ± 5.1 on 120 attempts Transition: +1.2 ± 3.9 on 100 attempts Cycle: +4.2 ± 8.7 on 465 attempts Off the draw: +1.7 ± 2.1 on 60 attempts Other: +3.5 ± 8.3 on 421 attempts	Hold
Jake AllenNJD	37	1031	.903	.902	+1.3	+7.7 ± 16.2	+10.8 ± 16.6 (37 GP) Rebound: −0.4 ± 6.9 on 199 attempts Transition: +0.7 ± 4.6 on 116 attempts Cycle: −2.2 ± 10.3 on 632 attempts Off the draw: +0.9 ± 2.2 on 76 attempts Other: +11.9 ± 9.8 on 549 attempts	Hold
Mackenzie BlackwoodCOL	39	933	.903	.903	+0.8	+7.5 ± 15.4	+6.1 ± 15.4 (38 GP) Rebound: +3.7 ± 6.4 on 176 attempts Transition: −8.6 ± 4.8 on 140 attempts Cycle: +2.3 ± 9.6 on 583 attempts Off the draw: +1.1 ± 2.3 on 75 attempts Other: +7.5 ± 8.8 on 467 attempts	Hold
Connor IngramEDM	32	763	.899	.899	+0.4	+2.7 ± 13.9	+3.9 ± 14.1 (32 GP) Rebound: −2.2 ± 5.3 on 122 attempts Transition: +1.7 ± 3.8 on 100 attempts Cycle: +4.8 ± 9.3 on 482 attempts Off the draw: −1.8 ± 1.8 on 52 attempts Other: +1.4 ± 8.2 on 417 attempts	Hold
Igor ShesterkinNYR	51	1425	.912	.911	+0.1	+22.9 ± 19.0	+20.6 ± 19.1 (51 GP) Rebound: −0.1 ± 7.5 on 239 attempts Transition: +2.5 ± 5.3 on 187 attempts Cycle: +15.0 ± 11.9 on 824 attempts Off the draw: −2.3 ± 2.7 on 101 attempts Other: +5.5 ± 11.4 on 797 attempts	Hold
Pyotr KochetkovCAR	9	189	.899	.900	−0.5	+0.7 ± 6.9	−0.5 ± 6.8 (8 GP) Rebound: −0.9 ± 2.7 on 28 attempts Transition: −0.0 ± 1.6 on 30 attempts Cycle: −2.6 ± 4.6 on 113 attempts Off the draw: +0.2 ± 0.7 on 14 attempts Other: +2.8 ± 3.8 on 93 attempts	Hold
Dustin WolfCGY	57	1558	.899	.900	−1.0	+4.8 ± 19.9	+0.2 ± 19.8 (57 GP) Rebound: +2.9 ± 7.5 on 231 attempts Transition: −1.5 ± 5.3 on 185 attempts Cycle: +2.5 ± 12.3 on 923 attempts Off the draw: −0.0 ± 2.8 on 126 attempts Other: −3.7 ± 12.1 on 851 attempts	Hold
Daniil TarasovFLA	33	925	.895	.896	−1.1	−0.4 ± 15.3	−1.9 ± 15.4 (33 GP) Rebound: +1.4 ± 6.2 on 155 attempts Transition: +2.0 ± 3.9 on 110 attempts Cycle: −4.5 ± 9.6 on 554 attempts Off the draw: −2.5 ± 2.5 on 81 attempts Other: +1.8 ± 9.2 on 488 attempts	Hold
Brandon BussiCAR	39	912	.894	.895	−1.4	−1.7 ± 15.2	+0.4 ± 15.5 (39 GP) Rebound: +0.9 ± 6.0 on 150 attempts Transition: −3.2 ± 4.7 on 138 attempts Cycle: +1.8 ± 9.7 on 528 attempts Off the draw: +0.7 ± 2.1 on 74 attempts Other: +0.1 ± 9.1 on 457 attempts	Hold
Karel VejmelkaUTA	64	1626	.896	.898	−1.7	+0.9 ± 20.3	+7.5 ± 20.9 (64 GP) Rebound: −11.4 ± 8.6 on 282 attempts Transition: +0.5 ± 5.1 on 201 attempts Cycle: +6.4 ± 12.8 on 971 attempts Off the draw: +1.0 ± 2.8 on 128 attempts Other: +11.1 ± 12.8 on 933 attempts	Hold
Andrei VasilevskiyTBL	58	1483	.911	.913	−2.3	+22.9 ± 19.4	+20.6 ± 19.5 (58 GP) Rebound: +1.3 ± 7.2 on 241 attempts Transition: −4.4 ± 5.1 on 201 attempts Cycle: +17.1 ± 12.8 on 928 attempts Off the draw: +1.5 ± 3.0 on 122 attempts Other: +5.2 ± 11.3 on 735 attempts	Hold
Filip GustavssonMIN	50	1377	.903	.906	−2.4	+10.9 ± 18.7	+3.5 ± 18.4 (50 GP) Rebound: +0.2 ± 7.5 on 215 attempts Transition: −1.1 ± 4.5 on 175 attempts Cycle: +7.7 ± 11.9 on 896 attempts Off the draw: −4.2 ± 3.1 on 126 attempts Other: +1.0 ± 10.7 on 718 attempts	Hold
Joonas KorpisaloBOS	31	851	.894	.897	−2.6	−1.1 ± 14.7	−5.7 ± 14.5 (31 GP) Rebound: +1.3 ± 5.3 on 148 attempts Transition: −0.6 ± 3.7 on 103 attempts Cycle: −2.0 ± 9.2 on 490 attempts Off the draw: −1.2 ± 2.1 on 56 attempts Other: −3.3 ± 8.9 on 453 attempts	Hold
Joseph WollTOR	39	1220	.898	.901	−2.9	+3.5 ± 17.6	+0.2 ± 17.5 (39 GP) Rebound: +3.7 ± 6.6 on 174 attempts Transition: −3.6 ± 4.3 on 147 attempts Cycle: −4.7 ± 11.3 on 765 attempts Off the draw: −1.3 ± 2.6 on 94 attempts Other: +6.1 ± 10.5 on 660 attempts	Hold
John GibsonDET	57	1461	.901	.904	−3.0	+8.6 ± 19.2	+15.0 ± 19.8 (57 GP) Rebound: +5.8 ± 7.5 on 228 attempts Transition: −2.3 ± 4.7 on 170 attempts Cycle: +2.6 ± 12.7 on 916 attempts Off the draw: +1.0 ± 3.2 on 135 attempts Other: +8.0 ± 11.8 on 829 attempts	Hold
Alex NedeljkovicSJS	40	1049	.896	.900	−3.6	+0.6 ± 16.3	+1.5 ± 16.5 (40 GP) Rebound: −1.7 ± 6.1 on 146 attempts Transition: +2.4 ± 4.3 on 131 attempts Cycle: −3.8 ± 10.5 on 609 attempts Off the draw: −0.6 ± 2.5 on 109 attempts Other: +5.2 ± 10.0 on 567 attempts	Hold
Ilya SorokinNYI	55	1530	.906	.910	−3.8	+15.9 ± 19.7	+25.6 ± 20.5 (55 GP) Rebound: +9.3 ± 8.8 on 302 attempts Transition: +3.6 ± 5.3 on 177 attempts Cycle: +5.2 ± 12.7 on 934 attempts Off the draw: +0.5 ± 3.0 on 107 attempts Other: +6.9 ± 11.9 on 804 attempts	Hold
Akira SchmidVGK	34	791	.892	.897	−4.1	−2.4 ± 14.2	−6.7 ± 14.0 (34 GP) Rebound: −1.3 ± 5.5 on 151 attempts Transition: +2.4 ± 3.7 on 112 attempts Cycle: +0.7 ± 8.8 on 533 attempts Off the draw: −0.9 ± 2.3 on 61 attempts Other: −7.6 ± 8.3 on 427 attempts	Hold
Joey DaccordSEA	47	1307	.896	.900	−4.4	+0.6 ± 18.2	−1.8 ± 18.3 (47 GP) Rebound: +4.3 ± 7.4 on 224 attempts Transition: −1.9 ± 4.5 on 164 attempts Cycle: −3.9 ± 11.7 on 820 attempts Off the draw: +1.2 ± 2.9 on 119 attempts Other: −1.4 ± 10.7 on 728 attempts	Hold
Arturs SilovsPIT	39	1020	.887	.892	−4.7	−8.4 ± 16.1	−5.4 ± 16.4 (39 GP) Rebound: −4.1 ± 6.0 on 139 attempts Transition: +1.3 ± 4.5 on 140 attempts Cycle: +3.7 ± 10.5 on 656 attempts Off the draw: +0.6 ± 2.6 on 92 attempts Other: −6.9 ± 9.8 on 544 attempts	Hold
Eric ComrieWPG	25	654	.890	.896	−6.1	−3.7 ± 12.9	−4.7 ± 12.9 (25 GP) Rebound: −2.0 ± 5.3 on 116 attempts Transition: −2.7 ± 3.3 on 77 attempts Cycle: +6.4 ± 8.0 on 413 attempts Off the draw: −0.8 ± 1.8 on 50 attempts Other: −5.7 ± 7.8 on 363 attempts	Hold
David RittichNYI	30	720	.894	.901	−6.1	−0.8 ± 13.5	+6.4 ± 14.3 (30 GP) Rebound: +4.2 ± 5.6 on 128 attempts Transition: −0.1 ± 3.5 on 89 attempts Cycle: +1.8 ± 9.2 on 472 attempts Off the draw: +1.9 ± 2.2 on 59 attempts Other: −1.4 ± 8.5 on 418 attempts	Hold
Jake OettingerDAL	54	1372	.899	.906	−6.6	+5.3 ± 18.6	+4.4 ± 18.8 (54 GP) Rebound: −0.9 ± 6.8 on 209 attempts Transition: +2.8 ± 4.9 on 164 attempts Cycle: −3.1 ± 12.0 on 830 attempts Off the draw: −0.4 ± 3.1 on 125 attempts Other: +6.0 ± 11.3 on 751 attempts	Hold
Jonas JohanssonTBL	25	670	.884	.892	−8.5	−8.0 ± 13.0	−10.7 ± 12.9 (25 GP) Rebound: +2.9 ± 4.8 on 96 attempts Transition: −2.8 ± 3.9 on 104 attempts Cycle: −7.7 ± 7.7 on 366 attempts Off the draw: +0.3 ± 2.5 on 80 attempts Other: −3.5 ± 8.0 on 353 attempts	Buy low
Lukas DostalANA	56	1513	.888	.897	−8.9	−10.9 ± 19.6	−1.3 ± 20.4 (56 GP) Rebound: +7.7 ± 7.3 on 249 attempts Transition: +0.4 ± 5.5 on 200 attempts Cycle: −7.1 ± 13.1 on 963 attempts Off the draw: −0.8 ± 3.3 on 136 attempts Other: −1.4 ± 12.2 on 812 attempts	Buy low
Jonathan QuickNYR	25	671	.891	.900	−9.2	−2.9 ± 13.0	−0.5 ± 13.4 (25 GP) Rebound: −2.8 ± 5.5 on 106 attempts Transition: −0.5 ± 3.6 on 78 attempts Cycle: −3.1 ± 8.7 on 456 attempts Off the draw: +1.3 ± 1.8 on 42 attempts Other: +4.5 ± 7.5 on 369 attempts	Buy low
Yaroslav AskarovSJS	47	1341	.883	.892	−9.4	−16.9 ± 18.4	−18.0 ± 18.6 (47 GP) Rebound: +0.6 ± 8.0 on 230 attempts Transition: +0.5 ± 4.6 on 144 attempts Cycle: −7.0 ± 11.1 on 766 attempts Off the draw: −0.0 ± 2.8 on 100 attempts Other: −12.1 ± 11.3 on 747 attempts	Buy low
Thatcher DemkoVAN	20	514	.895	.905	−10.5	−0.3 ± 11.4	+4.3 ± 12.0 (20 GP) Rebound: −0.8 ± 4.5 on 76 attempts Transition: −0.2 ± 2.6 on 53 attempts Cycle: +5.9 ± 7.6 on 325 attempts Off the draw: −0.7 ± 1.8 on 48 attempts Other: +0.2 ± 7.4 on 304 attempts	Buy low
Carter HartVGK	18	422	.891	.902	−11.1	−1.9 ± 10.3	−2.0 ± 10.5 (18 GP) Rebound: −0.1 ± 3.7 on 64 attempts Transition: −0.8 ± 2.8 on 57 attempts Cycle: −0.5 ± 7.0 on 285 attempts Off the draw: +0.6 ± 1.3 on 31 attempts Other: −1.3 ± 6.1 on 207 attempts	Buy low
Arvid SoderblomCHI	26	774	.880	.891	−11.1	−12.1 ± 14.0	−7.9 ± 14.5 (26 GP) Rebound: −0.0 ± 5.6 on 138 attempts Transition: −0.6 ± 3.7 on 84 attempts Cycle: −1.1 ± 8.9 on 435 attempts Off the draw: +0.8 ± 2.7 on 69 attempts Other: −7.1 ± 8.9 on 433 attempts	Buy low
Nikita TolopiloVAN	21	582	.881	.893	−11.7	−8.2 ± 12.1	−1.9 ± 12.9 (21 GP) Rebound: +5.3 ± 4.9 on 90 attempts Transition: −0.1 ± 3.5 on 75 attempts Cycle: −2.1 ± 7.7 on 334 attempts Off the draw: +0.1 ± 1.7 on 44 attempts Other: −5.1 ± 8.2 on 349 attempts	Buy low
Stuart SkinnerPIT	50	1267	.888	.900	−11.9	−9.6 ± 17.9	+6.6 ± 19.1 (50 GP) Rebound: −0.8 ± 7.8 on 228 attempts Transition: −2.9 ± 5.5 on 192 attempts Cycle: +8.9 ± 11.8 on 795 attempts Off the draw: +0.1 ± 2.8 on 113 attempts Other: +1.2 ± 11.3 on 727 attempts	Buy low
Anthony StolarzTOR	26	708	.893	.906	−13.2	−2.0 ± 13.4	−0.7 ± 13.7 (26 GP) Rebound: +1.7 ± 4.8 on 93 attempts Transition: −1.6 ± 4.0 on 93 attempts Cycle: +5.2 ± 8.6 on 434 attempts Off the draw: +0.6 ± 2.0 on 56 attempts Other: −6.6 ± 8.4 on 383 attempts	Buy low
Ville HussoANA	20	534	.884	.898	−14.0	−6.2 ± 11.6	−3.3 ± 12.1 (20 GP) Rebound: −2.8 ± 4.7 on 88 attempts Transition: +1.0 ± 3.8 on 81 attempts Cycle: −0.2 ± 7.7 on 340 attempts Off the draw: −1.0 ± 1.6 on 42 attempts Other: −0.3 ± 6.8 on 263 attempts	Buy low
Juuse SarosNSH	59	1700	.893	.908	−14.7	−3.4 ± 20.7	−1.7 ± 21.0 (59 GP) Rebound: −5.2 ± 8.4 on 239 attempts Transition: +3.8 ± 5.8 on 227 attempts Cycle: +0.3 ± 12.9 on 959 attempts Off the draw: −1.5 ± 3.0 on 126 attempts Other: +0.9 ± 12.7 on 931 attempts	Buy low
Vitek VanecekUTA	22	506	.883	.899	−15.3	−6.1 ± 11.3	−5.4 ± 11.5 (22 GP) Rebound: +0.8 ± 4.8 on 98 attempts Transition: +0.7 ± 3.4 on 78 attempts Cycle: −1.6 ± 7.0 on 268 attempts Off the draw: +0.7 ± 1.4 on 35 attempts Other: −6.0 ± 6.9 on 276 attempts	Buy low
James ReimerOTT	14	289	.886	.901	−15.6	−2.8 ± 8.6	−0.5 ± 9.0 (14 GP) Rebound: +1.5 ± 3.3 on 47 attempts Transition: +0.5 ± 1.9 on 36 attempts Cycle: +5.0 ± 5.7 on 222 attempts Off the draw: +0.3 ± 0.9 on 20 attempts Other: −7.7 ± 5.8 on 183 attempts	Hold
Elvis MerzlikinsCBJ	30	812	.883	.899	−15.6	−10.2 ± 14.3	−7.2 ± 14.7 (30 GP) Rebound: +4.9 ± 6.2 on 138 attempts Transition: +0.3 ± 3.3 on 80 attempts Cycle: −12.3 ± 9.3 on 517 attempts Off the draw: −1.2 ± 2.2 on 65 attempts Other: +1.1 ± 8.7 on 446 attempts	Buy low
Connor HellebuyckWPG	57	1547	.895	.913	−18.0	−0.4 ± 19.8	+1.8 ± 20.1 (57 GP) Rebound: −0.3 ± 7.8 on 282 attempts Transition: +2.8 ± 5.2 on 168 attempts Cycle: −2.2 ± 13.0 on 983 attempts Off the draw: −0.5 ± 3.0 on 115 attempts Other: +2.0 ± 11.9 on 815 attempts	Buy low
Darcy KuemperLAK	50	1234	.891	.909	−18.1	−5.1 ± 17.7	−7.7 ± 17.7 (50 GP) Rebound: +5.6 ± 6.9 on 185 attempts Transition: +1.4 ± 4.9 on 184 attempts Cycle: −1.8 ± 11.1 on 717 attempts Off the draw: +0.2 ± 2.9 on 108 attempts Other: −13.1 ± 10.5 on 685 attempts	Buy low
Linus UllmarkOTT	49	1198	.891	.909	−18.7	−5.8 ± 17.4	−7.7 ± 17.4 (49 GP) Rebound: −1.0 ± 6.8 on 184 attempts Transition: −0.1 ± 4.7 on 153 attempts Cycle: −7.5 ± 10.9 on 721 attempts Off the draw: +0.7 ± 2.6 on 87 attempts Other: +0.2 ± 10.4 on 659 attempts	Buy low
Samuel ErssonPHI	33	744	.870	.889	−19.9	−19.3 ± 13.7	−13.1 ± 14.4 (33 GP) Rebound: −0.3 ± 5.0 on 113 attempts Transition: −5.2 ± 3.8 on 99 attempts Cycle: −4.2 ± 8.9 on 453 attempts Off the draw: −1.4 ± 2.0 on 61 attempts Other: −2.0 ± 9.2 on 493 attempts	Buy low
Cam TalbotDET	34	797	.883	.903	−20.0	−9.7 ± 14.2	−7.4 ± 14.6 (34 GP) Rebound: −1.9 ± 5.0 on 93 attempts Transition: −1.2 ± 4.1 on 103 attempts Cycle: +3.1 ± 9.1 on 495 attempts Off the draw: +0.9 ± 2.2 on 60 attempts Other: −8.3 ± 9.1 on 472 attempts	Buy low
Charlie LindgrenWSH	21	602	.879	.899	−20.2	−10.1 ± 12.3	−3.8 ± 13.0 (21 GP) Rebound: −6.4 ± 4.5 on 75 attempts Transition: +0.5 ± 3.3 on 78 attempts Cycle: −2.9 ± 7.9 on 359 attempts Off the draw: −0.5 ± 2.0 on 43 attempts Other: +5.5 ± 8.5 on 364 attempts	Buy low
Carl LindbomVGK	8	189	.873	.894	−21.2	−4.3 ± 6.9	−2.4 ± 7.3 (8 GP) Rebound: −1.0 ± 3.0 on 32 attempts Transition: −0.6 ± 2.5 on 33 attempts Cycle: +1.7 ± 4.7 on 124 attempts Off the draw: +0.5 ± 1.1 on 19 attempts Other: −3.0 ± 3.9 on 97 attempts	Hold
Calvin PickardEDM	16	410	.871	.892	−21.3	−10.2 ± 10.2	−3.9 ± 10.9 (16 GP) Rebound: −5.2 ± 4.3 on 60 attempts Transition: −0.3 ± 3.1 on 57 attempts Cycle: +1.1 ± 6.9 on 251 attempts Off the draw: −0.3 ± 1.4 on 25 attempts Other: +0.7 ± 6.4 on 219 attempts	Buy low
Jacob MarkstromNJD	44	1113	.883	.905	−21.5	−13.7 ± 16.8	−13.1 ± 17.0 (44 GP) Rebound: −3.0 ± 6.4 on 161 attempts Transition: −9.7 ± 4.8 on 158 attempts Cycle: +2.0 ± 10.6 on 654 attempts Off the draw: +3.7 ± 3.0 on 96 attempts Other: −6.1 ± 10.1 on 620 attempts	Buy low
Kevin LankinenVAN	47	1285	.875	.897	−21.7	−25.7 ± 18.0	−17.1 ± 18.8 (47 GP) Rebound: −6.6 ± 7.4 on 214 attempts Transition: +3.6 ± 4.6 on 139 attempts Cycle: +2.0 ± 11.8 on 773 attempts Off the draw: −2.6 ± 3.0 on 101 attempts Other: −13.4 ± 11.3 on 709 attempts	Buy low
Tristan JarryEDM	33	832	.882	.904	−21.9	−11.1 ± 14.5	−3.8 ± 15.3 (33 GP) Rebound: +1.2 ± 6.0 on 145 attempts Transition: +3.3 ± 4.5 on 118 attempts Cycle: +1.7 ± 9.3 on 521 attempts Off the draw: −0.0 ± 2.3 on 68 attempts Other: −9.9 ± 9.2 on 457 attempts	Buy low
Samuel MontembeaultMTL	25	635	.872	.896	−23.6	−14.7 ± 12.7	−2.9 ± 13.8 (25 GP) Rebound: +2.8 ± 5.6 on 114 attempts Transition: +0.6 ± 3.4 on 75 attempts Cycle: +0.3 ± 8.8 on 385 attempts Off the draw: −3.5 ± 1.9 on 47 attempts Other: −3.1 ± 8.2 on 346 attempts	Buy low
Sergei BobrovskyFLA	52	1250	.877	.905	−28.0	−23.4 ± 17.8	−18.8 ± 18.3 (52 GP) Rebound: −6.7 ± 7.5 on 205 attempts Transition: +1.8 ± 5.2 on 179 attempts Cycle: −8.9 ± 11.5 on 777 attempts Off the draw: −0.1 ± 2.8 on 118 attempts Other: −5.0 ± 10.5 on 669 attempts	Buy low
Jordan BinningtonSTL	41	1010	.873	.902	−28.5	−22.5 ± 16.0	−26.7 ± 15.8 (41 GP) Rebound: −5.3 ± 6.8 on 176 attempts Transition: −1.8 ± 3.9 on 117 attempts Cycle: −5.7 ± 9.7 on 557 attempts Off the draw: −2.2 ± 2.7 on 93 attempts Other: −11.7 ± 9.4 on 545 attempts	Buy low
Adin HillVGK	27	587	.871	.901	−31.0	−14.7 ± 12.2	−14.4 ± 12.4 (27 GP) Rebound: −2.9 ± 4.3 on 76 attempts Transition: −0.6 ± 3.7 on 87 attempts Cycle: −9.4 ± 8.0 on 395 attempts Off the draw: −0.9 ± 1.7 on 44 attempts Other: −0.7 ± 7.3 on 329 attempts	Buy low
Frederik AndersenCAR	35	849	.874	.907	−33.2	−18.3 ± 14.7	−0.9 ± 16.1 (35 GP) Rebound: +3.3 ± 6.5 on 164 attempts Transition: −4.9 ± 4.7 on 122 attempts Cycle: −5.2 ± 10.2 on 530 attempts Off the draw: +1.0 ± 2.3 on 61 attempts Other: +4.9 ± 9.3 on 425 attempts	Buy low
Leevi MeriläinenOTT	20	457	.860	.893	−33.4	−16.3 ± 10.8	−19.4 ± 10.5 (20 GP) Rebound: −2.5 ± 4.7 on 82 attempts Transition: −1.0 ± 2.8 on 62 attempts Cycle: −7.7 ± 6.6 on 275 attempts Off the draw: −1.4 ± 1.2 on 23 attempts Other: −6.8 ± 6.0 on 224 attempts	Buy low
Petr MrazekANA	10	247	.858	.900	−41.3	−9.2 ± 7.9	−8.2 ± 8.1 (10 GP) Rebound: +0.1 ± 2.7 on 30 attempts Transition: +1.1 ± 1.6 on 24 attempts Cycle: +0.9 ± 5.2 on 148 attempts Off the draw: +0.5 ± 1.1 on 17 attempts Other: −10.7 ± 5.3 on 146 attempts	Hold

How the Luck Meter works

Each component compares what happened with a talent-adjusted expectation. Talent is a Bayesian estimate: the league (or position) rate acts as the prior and every loaded season of the player's own data updates it, so a rookie regresses to league average and a veteran to his own history. Small samples barely move the meter.

: Expected goals are the player's own ixG (our xG model, calibrated to league scoring) or, for games not yet run through the xG model, shots on goal times the league shooting percentage for his position. We multiply by his finishing talent: (career goals + 25) / (career xG + 25), so a proven sniper is expected to beat xG and a new player regresses to league average.
: How often his team scores on its shots with him on the ice, against his own history shrunk toward the league rate with 1500 pseudo-shots. On-ice SH% is one of the least repeatable numbers in hockey, so it takes a large sample to move the expectation.
: Skaters barely control their goalie's save percentage, so the expectation is close to league average (4000 pseudo-shots). It matters most for plus-minus and least for points, so it carries the smallest weight.
: Individual points percentage is the share of on-ice goals he scored or assisted on. The baseline is his history shrunk toward the forward or defense average with 40 pseudo-goals. A defenseman with a forward-like IPP is usually due to come down.
: Expected points = expected goals + expected assists, where expected assists are his assist-involvement rate times the expected goals his teammates generate with him on the ice (on-ice xGF adjusted for his on-ice finishing talent, minus his own).

Each component becomes a z-score (luck divided by its sampling standard deviation), weighted shooting 0.3, onIceSh 0.25, pax 0.2, ipp 0.15, onIceSv 0.1. The meter is 100 × tanh(Σ weight × z / 1.5), so it runs from −100 (ice cold) to +100 (red hot). |meter| ≥ 50 with at least 10 games earns Sell high or Buy low.

Sustainability check. Over his last 10 games we look for a role change (TOI up 1:30+, PP share up 10+ points, or PP1 / line promotions from our deployment tracker) and a shot-diet shift (xG per unblocked attempt up or down 20%+). A sell signal with a better role or shot diet is softened to Hold, and so is a buy signal with a worse one.

xG comes from our trained expected-goals model (methodology), and the board recomputes nightly.

FAQ

What does the Luck Meter measure?

It measures how far a player's results are running ahead of (positive) or behind (negative) what his shot volume, shot quality, ice time and history say to expect. It combines five components: shooting luck, on-ice shooting %, on-ice save % (PDO), IPP and points vs expected points.

Should I trade every Sell high player?

No. Sell high means the results are ahead of the process, so the price is probably at its peak. Elite finishers and playmakers do sustain some of it, and the meter only knows the seasons we have loaded. We soften the tag to Hold when his role (TOI, PP share, promotions) or shot diet improved at the same time, because some of that heat is real.

Why is a star player flagged as lucky?

Talent is estimated from every season we have loaded, shrunk toward league average. A player with a short history is pulled part of the way toward league average even if he is an elite shooter. The sample note on the page shows which seasons fed the baseline.

Do older seasons count as much as recent ones?

No. Players change with age and role, and the league changes around them, so the career baseline is weighted toward recent seasons, Marcel-style. This season counts in full, last season 80%, the season before 60%, and each older season half as much as the one after it (30%, 15%, and so on). An old hot streak still nudges the baseline, but it no longer outweighs what he has done lately.

How is PDO used?

PDO is on-ice shooting % plus on-ice save % at 5v5. We split it into its two halves because they regress at different speeds and matter differently for fantasy: on-ice shooting drives points, on-ice save % mostly drives plus-minus.

How are goalies rated?

Goalies get goals saved above average (GSAA) with a 90% interval, a talent estimate (save % shrunk toward league with 3,000 pseudo-shots) and, for games the sequence engine has processed, goals saved above expected by shot class (rebounds, transition, cycle, off the draw) with intervals.

How often does the board update?

Nightly, after the previous night's games are ingested. xG coverage grows as games are reprocessed with the full engine; the page shows what share of games used model xG.