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NHL Schedule Edge: rest, back-to-backs and travel
Data updated:
Friday, Oct 2 · 5 games · 1 with an edge
NYR @ DET
Edge: DET +9.3 ptsBack-to-back · 774 km travel
- B2B vs rested DET −9.3 pts
First game
- NYR on a B2B +9.3 pts
DET has the schedule edge (+9.3 pts net win probability): nyr on a b2b, b2b vs rested det.
WSH @ CAR
No schedule edgeFirst game · 376 km travel
2 days rest
No meaningful schedule edge: WSH (first game) at CAR (2 days rest).
BOS @ WPG
No schedule edge2 days rest · 2,163 km travel · -1 h
First game
No meaningful schedule edge: BOS (2 days rest) at WPG (first game).
STL @ DAL
No schedule edgeFirst game · 881 km travel
First game
No meaningful schedule edge: STL (first game) at DAL (first game).
ANA @ VGK
No schedule edgeFirst game · 354 km travel
2 days rest
No meaningful schedule edge: ANA (first game) at VGK (2 days rest).
Saturday, Oct 3 · 13 games · 5 with an edge
STL @ COL
Edge: COL +11.1 ptsBack-to-back · 1,066 km travel · -1 h
- B2B vs rested COL −9.3 pts
- B2B after 1,066 km −3.5 pts
2 days rest
- STL on a B2B +9.3 pts
COL has the schedule edge (+11.1 pts net win probability): stl on a b2b, b2b vs rested col, b2b after 1,066 km.
WSH @ TBL
Edge: TBL +9.3 ptsBack-to-back · 942 km travel
- B2B vs rested TBL −9.3 pts
1 day rest · 1,620 km travel
- WSH on a B2B +9.3 pts
TBL has the schedule edge (+9.3 pts net win probability): wsh on a b2b, b2b vs rested tbl.
CAR @ PHI
Edge: PHI +9.3 ptsBack-to-back · 552 km travel
- B2B vs rested PHI −9.3 pts
1 day rest · 126 km travel
- CAR on a B2B +9.3 pts
PHI has the schedule edge (+9.3 pts net win probability): car on a b2b, b2b vs rested phi.
DAL @ NSH
Edge: NSH +9.3 ptsBack-to-back · 992 km travel
- B2B vs rested NSH −9.3 pts
1 day rest
- DAL on a B2B +9.3 pts
NSH has the schedule edge (+9.3 pts net win probability): dal on a b2b, b2b vs rested nsh.
BOS @ MIN
Edge: MIN +9.3 ptsBack-to-back · 628 km travel
- B2B vs rested MIN −9.3 pts
1 day rest · 1,113 km travel
- BOS on a B2B +9.3 pts
MIN has the schedule edge (+9.3 pts net win probability): bos on a b2b, b2b vs rested min.
CHI @ BUF
No schedule edge1 day rest · 2,729 km travel · +2 h
- 2 h time-zone change −1.0 pts
1 day rest · 472 km travel
No meaningful schedule edge: CHI (1 day rest) at BUF (1 day rest).
UTA @ CBJ
No schedule edge1 day rest · 2,438 km travel · +2 h
- 2 h time-zone change −1.0 pts
1 day rest
No meaningful schedule edge: UTA (1 day rest) at CBJ (1 day rest).
OTT @ TOR
No schedule edgeFirst game · 330 km travel
2 days rest
No meaningful schedule edge: OTT (first game) at TOR (2 days rest).
MTL @ PIT
No schedule edge3 days rest · 360 km travel
- 3 days rest vs 2 days rest
2 days rest · 414 km travel
- 2 days rest vs 3 days rest
No meaningful schedule edge: MTL (3 days rest) at PIT (2 days rest).
SEA @ EDM
No schedule edge1 day rest · 282 km travel
1 day rest · 817 km travel · +1 h
No meaningful schedule edge: SEA (1 day rest) at EDM (1 day rest).
NJD @ NYI
No schedule edge1 day rest · 38 km travel
- 1 day rest vs 2 days rest
2 days rest · 568 km travel
- 2 days rest vs 1 day rest
No meaningful schedule edge: NJD (1 day rest) at NYI (2 days rest).
CGY @ VAN
No schedule edge1 day rest · 674 km travel · -1 h
1 day rest
No meaningful schedule edge: CGY (1 day rest) at VAN (1 day rest).
LAK @ SJS
No schedule edge2 days rest · 1,491 km travel · -1 h
- 2 days rest vs 1 day rest
1 day rest
- 1 day rest vs 2 days rest
No meaningful schedule edge: LAK (2 days rest) at SJS (1 day rest).
Sunday, Oct 4 · 5 games · 2 with an edge
UTA @ NYR
Edge: NYR +9.3 ptsBack-to-back · 768 km travel
- B2B vs rested NYR −9.3 pts
1 day rest · 774 km travel
- UTA on a B2B +9.3 pts
NYR has the schedule edge (+9.3 pts net win probability): uta on a b2b, b2b vs rested nyr.
VGK @ VAN
Edge: VGK +9.3 pts1 day rest · 1,600 km travel
- VAN on a B2B +9.3 pts
Back-to-back
- B2B vs rested VGK −9.3 pts
VGK has the schedule edge (+9.3 pts net win probability): van on a b2b, b2b vs rested vgk.
WPG @ DET
No schedule edge1 day rest · 1,369 km travel · +1 h
1 day rest
No meaningful schedule edge: WPG (1 day rest) at DET (1 day rest).
FLA @ ANA
No schedule edge2 days rest · 535 km travel
- 2 days rest vs 1 day rest
1 day rest · 354 km travel
- 1 day rest vs 2 days rest
No meaningful schedule edge: FLA (2 days rest) at ANA (1 day rest).
CGY @ SEA
No schedule edgeBack-to-back · 192 km travel
Back-to-back · 907 km travel · -1 h
No meaningful schedule edge: CGY (back-to-back) at SEA (back-to-back).
Monday, Oct 5 · 4 games · 1 with an edge
WPG @ PIT
Edge: PIT +9.3 ptsBack-to-back · 332 km travel
- B2B vs rested PIT −9.3 pts
1 day rest
- WPG on a B2B +9.3 pts
PIT has the schedule edge (+9.3 pts net win probability): wpg on a b2b, b2b vs rested pit.
SJS @ DAL
No schedule edge1 day rest · 2,331 km travel · +2 h
- 2 h time-zone change −1.0 pts
1 day rest · 992 km travel
No meaningful schedule edge: SJS (1 day rest) at DAL (1 day rest).
PHI @ TBL
No schedule edge1 day rest · 1,488 km travel
1 day rest
No meaningful schedule edge: PHI (1 day rest) at TBL (1 day rest).
OTT @ BOS
No schedule edge1 day rest · 691 km travel
1 day rest · 1,790 km travel · +1 h
No meaningful schedule edge: OTT (1 day rest) at BOS (1 day rest).
Tuesday, Oct 6 · 9 games · 1 with an edge
OTT @ DET
Edge: DET +9.3 ptsBack-to-back · 985 km travel
- B2B vs rested DET −9.3 pts
1 day rest
- OTT on a B2B +9.3 pts
DET has the schedule edge (+9.3 pts net win probability): ott on a b2b, b2b vs rested det.
NSH @ TOR
No schedule edge2 days rest · 1,044 km travel · +1 h
2 days rest
No meaningful schedule edge: NSH (2 days rest) at TOR (2 days rest).
CAR @ MTL
No schedule edge2 days rest · 636 km travel
2 days rest · 767 km travel
No meaningful schedule edge: CAR (2 days rest) at MTL (2 days rest).
UTA @ NJD
No schedule edge1 day rest · 15 km travel
- 1 day rest vs 2 days rest
2 days rest · 38 km travel
- 2 days rest vs 1 day rest
No meaningful schedule edge: UTA (1 day rest) at NJD (2 days rest).
NYI @ NYR
No schedule edge2 days rest · 23 km travel
- 2 days rest vs 1 day rest
1 day rest
- 1 day rest vs 2 days rest
No meaningful schedule edge: NYI (2 days rest) at NYR (1 day rest).
MIN @ BUF
No schedule edge2 days rest · 1,161 km travel · +1 h
2 days rest
No meaningful schedule edge: MIN (2 days rest) at BUF (2 days rest).
STL @ CHI
No schedule edge2 days rest · 1,475 km travel · +1 h
2 days rest · 731 km travel · -1 h
No meaningful schedule edge: STL (2 days rest) at CHI (2 days rest).
VGK @ SEA
No schedule edge1 day rest · 192 km travel
1 day rest
No meaningful schedule edge: VGK (1 day rest) at SEA (1 day rest).
FLA @ LAK
No schedule edge1 day rest · 45 km travel
- 1 day rest vs 2 days rest
2 days rest · 491 km travel
- 2 days rest vs 1 day rest
No meaningful schedule edge: FLA (1 day rest) at LAK (2 days rest).
Wednesday, Oct 7 · 3 games · 0 with an edge
PIT @ WSH
No schedule edge1 day rest · 306 km travel
- 1 day rest vs 3 days rest
3 days rest · 1,318 km travel
- 3 days rest vs 1 day rest
No meaningful schedule edge: PIT (1 day rest) at WSH (3 days rest).
COL @ WPG
No schedule edge3 days rest · 1,286 km travel · +1 h
- 3 days rest vs 1 day rest
1 day rest · 1,700 km travel · -1 h
- 1 day rest vs 3 days rest
No meaningful schedule edge: COL (3 days rest) at WPG (1 day rest).
EDM @ ANA
No schedule edge3 days rest · 2,222 km travel · -1 h
- 3 days rest vs 2 days rest
2 days rest
- 2 days rest vs 3 days rest
No meaningful schedule edge: EDM (3 days rest) at ANA (2 days rest).
Thursday, Oct 8 · 10 games · 1 with an edge
COL @ CGY
Edge: CGY +11.1 ptsBack-to-back · 1,201 km travel · -1 h
- B2B vs rested CGY −9.3 pts
- B2B after 1,201 km −3.5 pts
3 days rest · 711 km travel · +1 h
- COL on a B2B +9.3 pts
CGY has the schedule edge (+11.1 pts net win probability): col on a b2b, b2b vs rested cgy, b2b after 1,201 km.
TOR @ VGK
No schedule edge1 day rest · 3,141 km travel · -3 h
- 3 h time-zone change −1.0 pts
1 day rest · 1,410 km travel
No meaningful schedule edge: TOR (1 day rest) at VGK (1 day rest).
UTA @ BOS
No schedule edge1 day rest · 316 km travel
- 1 day rest vs 2 days rest
2 days rest
- 2 days rest vs 1 day rest
No meaningful schedule edge: UTA (1 day rest) at BOS (2 days rest).
DAL @ BUF
No schedule edge2 days rest · 1,927 km travel · +1 h
- 2 days rest vs 1 day rest
1 day rest
- 1 day rest vs 2 days rest
No meaningful schedule edge: DAL (2 days rest) at BUF (1 day rest).
NSH @ MTL
No schedule edge1 day rest · 504 km travel
1 day rest
No meaningful schedule edge: NSH (1 day rest) at MTL (1 day rest).
PHI @ OTT
No schedule edge2 days rest · 2,014 km travel
- 2 days rest vs 1 day rest
1 day rest · 659 km travel
- 1 day rest vs 2 days rest
No meaningful schedule edge: PHI (2 days rest) at OTT (1 day rest).
MIN @ TBL
No schedule edge1 day rest · 1,691 km travel
- 1 day rest vs 2 days rest
2 days rest
- 2 days rest vs 1 day rest
No meaningful schedule edge: MIN (1 day rest) at TBL (2 days rest).
VAN @ CAR
No schedule edge3 days rest · 3,866 km travel · +3 h
- 3 days rest vs 1 day rest
1 day rest · 1,162 km travel
- 1 day rest vs 3 days rest
No meaningful schedule edge: VAN (3 days rest) at CAR (1 day rest).
CHI @ NYI
No schedule edge1 day rest · 1,171 km travel · +1 h
1 day rest · 23 km travel
No meaningful schedule edge: CHI (1 day rest) at NYI (1 day rest).
SJS @ STL
No schedule edge2 days rest · 881 km travel
- 2 days rest vs 1 day rest
1 day rest · 421 km travel
- 1 day rest vs 2 days rest
No meaningful schedule edge: SJS (2 days rest) at STL (1 day rest).
Back-to-back win rates by season
| Season | B2B vs rested | Rested vs B2B | B2B after 1,000+ km |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | 38.1% | 61.9% | 27.5% (n 51) |
| 2023-24 | 43.0% | 57.0% | 41.4% |
| 2024-25 | 37.9% | 62.1% | 39.3% |
| 2025-26 | 43.7% | 56.3% | 40.5% |
2025-26, back-to-back teams against rested opponents: 286 games, 42.2% wins with the backup in net (n 185), 46.5% with the starter (n 101).
How it works
- For every game we know each team's days of rest, whether it is the second night of a back-to-back, the kilometres travelled since its last game and the time-zone change (the same context our game pages use).
- Back-to-back against a rested team: -9.3 points of win probability; rested against a back-to-back team: +9.3; a back-to-back after more than 1,000 km: -3.5 more. These come from our four-season study.
- The backup goalie is separate. When our start model gives the backup at least a 50% chance, we add the backup effect we measured in 2025-26 (-4.1 points) weighted by that chance.
- The edge shown for a game is the home team's expected change; the other side is the mirror image. Extra rest beyond a day and travel on normal rest are shown for context only, because we could not measure a reliable effect.
Methodology: Gas Tank and Schedule Edge · Goalie start model
Frequently asked questions
How much does a back-to-back hurt an NHL team?
Against a rested opponent, teams on the second night of a back-to-back won 38.1% (2021-22), 43.0% (2023-24), 37.9% (2024-25) and 43.7% (2025-26) of games. We use 9.3 points of win probability as the edge.
Is the back-to-back effect just the backup goalie?
Partly. In 2025-26 the backup started 63% of second nights. Back-to-back teams won 42% with the backup in net and 47% with the starter, so tired skaters matter too. We show the two effects as separate chips.
Does travel matter?
On a back-to-back, yes: travelling more than 1,000 km since the last game costs about 3.5 more points. On normal rest we found no reliable travel effect, so we show the distance for context only.
How do I use this for fantasy hockey?
Lean toward skaters and goalies on the rested side of a back-to-back mismatch, and check whether the tired team is starting its backup. The Streamer Finder and Goalie Start Planner use these same numbers.