Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay LightningNov 22, 2026

Time TBDSunday, Nov 22, 2026

away

Buffalo SabresBUF

at

home

Tampa Bay LightningTBL

Preview

Probable goalies, start odds, schedule edge and each team's lines from its last game.

Schedule Edge

Edge: TBL +12.1 pts

BUFaway−12.0 pts

Back-to-back · 289 km travel

B2B vs rested TBL −9.3 pts
Backup likely (66%) −2.7 pts

TBLhome+12.1 pts

2 days rest

BUF on a B2B +9.3 pts
BUF backup likely (66%) +2.8 pts

TBL has the schedule edge (+12.1 pts net win probability): buf on a b2b, buf backup likely (66%), b2b vs rested tbl, backup likely (66%).

· Every game this week →

Buffalo Sabres

Goalie: Starter not announced
Start probability: Alex Lyon35%
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen34%
Colten Ellis31%
Schedule: Second of a back-to-back
Last game: L 3–6 at CBJ · Oct 1

L1Quinn – Ostlund – Benson
11:13
L2Thompson – Norris – Doan
10:19
L3McLeod – Krebs – Helenius
10:05
L4Carrick – Malenstyn – Kulich
6:00
D1Samuelsson – Dahlin
13:10
D2Crevier – Power
10:21
D3Grzelcyk – Metsa
8:13
PP1Thompson – Dahlin – Quinn – Doan – Benson
4:22

Projected BUF lines →·BUF goalies →·Goalie start planner →

Tampa Bay Lightning

Goalie: Starter not announced
Start probability: Andrei Vasilevskiy96%
Dennis Hildeby5%
Schedule: Rested
Last game: L 1–5 at NYR · Oct 1

L1Guentzel – Cirelli – Hagel
8:05
L2Kucherov – Point – Mikheyev
6:58
L3Harkins – Goncalves – Geekie
5:04
L4Girgensons – Viel – Holmberg
4:59
D1McDonagh – Cernak
11:26
D2Hedman – D'Astous
11:01
D3Carlson – Moser
9:29
PP1Carlson – Kucherov – Guentzel – Point – Hagel
7:18

Projected TBL lines →·TBL goalies →·Goalie start planner →

Game day: all games on Nov 22.

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Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.