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Regular-Season Records Predict NHL Playoff Upsets Almost Exactly

The team with the better record wins about five NHL playoff series in eight. That is almost exactly what its record says it should, once you knock off the luck every record carries. Across 934 series since 1918, a forecast built only on regular-season records expected 345 upsets. There were 342. What changed since the 1970s is the gap between teams, and with it the best team’s odds of winning four rounds in a row.

Verdict: Data story

By Edgehalla ResearchPublished 11 min read

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At 8:35 of overtime on April 30, 2023, Carter Verhaeghe’s wrist shot from the right circle slipped under the crossbar in Boston, and the Florida Panthers were through. The Bruins had won 65 games that season, an NHL record. Florida had won 42.

Sixteen days earlier, the analyst Neil Paine had asked why the league’s best regular-season teams so rarely win the Stanley Cup. His answer needed no curse: “The hockey playoffs are just random.”

He was right about the randomness. A century of playoff series says most of it was sitting in the regular-season standings before the first game of spring.

The better team wins five series in eight, as often as its record says it should

So when a 65-win team goes out in the first round, what failed? The playoffs, or the standings? Start with the record. Since the spring of 1918, NHL teams have met in 934 playoff series in which one of them had the better regular-season record. The better team won 592, about five in eight. Hockey’s favourites lose more than a third of the time.

Paine had checked the Cups won by Presidents’ Trophy winners (more on that below). We wanted to test every series in every round, back to the first one, and see whether the answer has changed. So we built the plainest forecast we could. It reads one thing: each team’s regular-season points percentage, the share of the standings points on offer that a team took. The 2022-23 Bruins took .823 of theirs. Florida took .561. A .600 team took 60%.

Then the forecast takes some of the luck out. Every record has bounces in it. A team that wins 10 of its first 12 games is probably good, just not quite that good, and a whole season works the same way, less strongly. So the forecast pulls each record part of the way back toward average. It pulls harder on a short season: Detroit had the league’s best record in 1994-95, but over 48 games, so the forecast trusts it less than it would trust 82.

From the two adjusted records, it works out each team’s chance of winning one game. From that, it works out the chance of winning a best-of-seven (or best-of-five, or best-of-three). That series chance, set before the first puck drops, is what we mean by “the forecast gave them” from here on. It never sees a playoff result.

It expected the better team to win about 63% of those 934 series. It expected 345 upsets. There were 342.

In every era, the better team won about as often as its record predicted

Share of NHL-vs-NHL playoff series won by the team with the higher regular-season points percentage, against the forecast from the two records alone

The better team won 75.3% of series in 1967-79 and 56.1% since 2013-14; the forecast, from records alone, expected 70.4% and 59.0%.

1926-42 (early NHL)
61%
59%
1942-67 (Original Six)
70.7%
67.5%
1967-79 (expansion)
75.3%
70.4%
1979-93 (16 of 21)
65%
66.6%
1993-2004 (conference era)
67.5%
62.8%
2005-13 (cap era)
56.5%
58.5%
2013-26 (today)
56.1%
59%
  • Better record won
  • Forecast
Series: 1926-42 77, 1942-67 75, 1967-79 97, 1979-93 206, 1993-2004 160, 2005-13 115, 2013-26 196. In every era the gap between result and forecast is small enough to be luck. Excluded: Stanley Cup series against teams from other leagues (1918-26), the 2020 round robin, series between teams level on points %, and the 8 NHL-only series of 1917-18 to 1925-26 (the better team won 2).

Read across the pairs of bars. No era misses by more than about five points, and the misses go both ways. Original Six favourites beat the forecast by a little. Cap-era favourites fell a little short. For a century, the playoffs have produced about as many upsets as the regular season said they would. How often the favourite won is another matter.

In the 1970s, the favourite won three times in four

In some decades the better team was close to a sure thing. In the six-team 1950s it won 25 of 30 series. In the 1970s, with the league stretched to as many as 21 teams, it won 68 of 92, about three in four.

That is what made the spring of 1971 a shock. The Boston Bruins, NHL.com recalls, had “rampaged to the NHL’s best regular-season record (57-14-7) and scored a League-record 399 goals.” Montreal had 24 fewer points and a goalie, Ken Dryden, “who had entered the postseason with just six career NHL appearances.” The Canadiens won in seven, and went on to win the Cup.

The favourite’s edge fell after the 1970s, and the forecast saw it coming

Share of playoff series won by the team with the better regular-season record, and the forecast from the records alone

Show data
The better team won 73.9% of series in the 1970s and 53.6% in the 2010s; the forecast expected 72.1% and 58.0%.
YearBetter record wonForecast
192054%60%
193056%58%
194074%67%
195083%70%
196066%64%
197074%72%
198069%66%
199063%64%
200062%60%
201054%58%
202059%61%
Each point is a decade, plotted at its first season (1970 = 1970-71 to 1979-80). Series per decade: 1920s 26, 1930s 48, 1940s 34, 1950s 30, 1960s 41, 1970s 92, 1980s 147, 1990s 147, 2000s 129, 2010s 153, 2020s 86. The 1920s and 1930s rest on few series; the 1950s high (30 series) is the biggest gap between results and forecast, and a small sample.

The solid line is what happened. The dashed line is the forecast. Both fall after the 1970s. In the 2010s the better team won 82 of 153 series, 54%, not far above a coin flip. It has recovered a little this decade (59% of 86). The forecast never sees a playoff game, and it drew the same slide: 72% in the 1970s, 58% in the 2010s. Whatever made the favourites weaker was already in the standings.

Since then, the gap between playoff teams has shrunk by more than half

The standings showed a league closing ranks. In the 1970s, the two teams in a playoff series were on average about 14 points apart in points percentage: think of a .600 team against a .462 team. In the 2010s the average gap was about 6 points, a .600 team against a .540 team.

Some of any gap in the standings is luck, so we took the luck out. Each season, we measured how spread out the records were and removed the spread that luck alone would produce over that many games. What is left is roughly the standings you would get if the season never ended. In 1975-76, in an 18-team league, a typical team’s real strength sat about 14 points from the league average. By 2010-11 it was about 6 points. Last season it was about 8. The good teams and the bad teams are much closer together than they were.

NHL teams got closer together, and so did playoff opponents

How far a typical team’s real strength sat from the league average once luck is removed (five-season average), and the average gap in points percentage between playoff opponents, every season since 1926-27

Show data
A typical team sat 14.1 points from average in 1975-76 and 7.6 in 2025-26; the average gap between playoff opponents fell from 13.8 points in the 1970s to 5.9 in the 2010s.
SeasonTypical team’s distance from average, luck removedAverage gap between playoff opponents
1926-2712 points12 points
1927-2812 points5 points
1928-2913 points4 points
1929-3012 points16 points
1930-3111 points4 points
1931-3211 points4 points
1932-339 points8 points
1933-346 points3 points
1934-356 points6 points
1935-368 points7 points
1936-379 points7 points
1937-3810 points14 points
1938-3911 points11 points
1939-4011 points8 points
1940-4111 points8 points
1941-4212 points9 points
1942-4313 points6 points
1943-4412 points25 points
1944-4513 points25 points
1945-4612 points6 points
1946-4710 points11 points
1947-487 points11 points
1948-499 points10 points
1949-5010 points11 points
1950-5110 points24 points
1951-5211 points14 points
1952-5312 points8 points
1953-5411 points6 points
1954-5510 points13 points
1955-5611 points15 points
1956-579 points6 points
1957-588 points15 points
1958-599 points13 points
1959-6010 points11 points
1960-6110 points12 points
1961-6210 points13 points
1962-6310 points3 points
1963-6410 points6 points
1964-659 points6 points
1965-669 points8 points
1966-679 points6 points
1967-6810 points6 points
1968-6910 points11 points
1969-7011 points9 points
1970-7113 points13 points
1971-7213 points15 points
1972-7314 points13 points
1973-7414 points11 points
1974-7514 points13 points
1975-7614 points12 points
1976-7714 points16 points
1977-7813 points16 points
1978-7912 points12 points
1979-8012 points15 points
1980-8111 points15 points
1981-8211 points13 points
1982-8311 points11 points
1983-8411 points12 points
1984-8510 points11 points
1985-869 points12 points
1986-879 points9 points
1987-888 points9 points
1988-897 points12 points
1989-908 points6 points
1990-919 points12 points
1991-929 points8 points
1992-9310 points9 points
1993-9410 points8 points
1994-9510 points14 points
1995-968 points11 points
1996-978 points9 points
1997-988 points8 points
1998-998 points8 points
1999-008 points7 points
2000-018 points9 points
2001-028 points6 points
2002-038 points8 points
2003-048 points5 points
2004-05––
2005-067 points6 points
2006-077 points5 points
2007-087 points6 points
2008-096 points8 points
2009-105 points7 points
2010-116 points6 points
2011-126 points5 points
2012-137 points11 points
2013-147 points7 points
2014-157 points5 points
2015-167 points5 points
2016-177 points5 points
2017-187 points5 points
2018-198 points5 points
2019-208 points6 points
2020-219 points9 points
2021-229 points6 points
2022-2310 points8 points
2023-249 points5 points
2024-258 points5 points
2025-268 points7 points
  • 1967-68: Expansion to 12 teams
  • 1979-80: 16 of 21 make it
  • 2005-06: Salary cap
Real-strength spread = one standard deviation of team points percentage minus the spread that luck alone gives over each season’s schedule (from the league’s share of wins, losses and half-point results), averaged over five seasons because early seasons had four to ten teams. Points percentage counts ties and overtime losses as half a win. The playoff gap is the season’s average across its series and jumps with the bracket. 2004-05 was cancelled. Short seasons: 1994-95 and 2012-13 (48 games), 2019-20 (about 70) and 2020-21 (56).

On the chart, the two lines fall together: the league tightened, and so did the playoff matchups. A favourite with a given edge still wins as often as it always did. Across all 934 series, a team ten points better in the standings won about 66% of the time. A team twenty points better won about 78%. On that score we can’t tell the cap era from the 1970s and 1980s. Favourites lose more often now because they are less often much better.

A record is two parts talent to one part luck

That leaves Paine’s randomness. Most of it lives in the standings. A full regular-season record today is roughly two parts talent to one part luck. Across the 18 full 82-game seasons since 2005-06, about two-thirds (67%) of what separates teams in the standings is real. From season to season that has run from about half (53%) to about three-quarters (77%). In 1975-76, with the teams so far apart, it was nearer nine-tenths (88%). So a team that finishes 20 points above average today is, on the best evidence, about 13 points better.

That is why the standings flatter the teams at the top. Take every record at face value and you would expect the better team to win about two series in three (67%). Take the luck out, as the forecast does, and the expectation falls to about five in eight. That is what happened.

Allowing for luck in the standings gets the upset count right

The better team won 63.4% of 934 series; the forecast that allows for luck expected 63.1% and records at face value 67.2%.

Better record won63.4%
592 of 934 series
Forecast, allowing for luck63.1%
Never sees a playoff result
Records taken at face value67.2%
Too confident in the favourite
Upsets, actual vs expected342 vs 345
Expected 344.5

The first tile is what happened. The second is the forecast with the luck taken out. The third takes every record at face value and backs the favourite too hard. The last shows the forecast that allows for luck missing the upset count by about three.

Spring hockey adds no extra luck we can find

Is there something extra in the playoffs, a randomness of tight checking and hot goalies that the regular season doesn’t have? We checked game by game. First we used each team’s first-half record to forecast its second-half regular-season games, all 28,525 of them, shootouts left out. There the forecast was slightly too cautious: the better team won a little more often than it said. Then we ran it on 4,866 playoff games. It was about right.

So a playoff game between teams a given distance apart is no measurably closer to a coin flip than a regular-season game. The playoffs simply hand a real but modest edge to a short series.

The biggest upsets: a 48-point gap, a .875 team and a rookie in goal

Of those 342 upsets, the biggest by the gap in the standings is the 1982 Los Angeles Kings, 63 points and a .394 points percentage, against an Edmonton team with Wayne Gretzky, 111 points and .694. The Kings won the best-of-five 3-2. In Game 3 they came back from 5-0 down. The forecast gave them about a 12% chance, the second-lowest of any series winner.

Second by the gap is the best regular season in NHL history. In 1929-30 the Bruins went 38-5-1, a points percentage “still the best in NHL history,” NHL.com notes, and “did not lose back-to-back games all season until being swept by the Canadiens in the best-of-3 Stanley Cup Final.” Montreal was a .580 team. A best-of-three is short enough that the forecast gave the Canadiens about a 17% chance.

The longest shot of all, by the forecast, came in 1945. Montreal had gone 38-8-4 (.800); Toronto was a .520 team with a rookie in goal, Frank McCool, standing in for Turk Broda, “who was away for military service.” The Leafs won the semifinal in six, a 10% shot, then beat Detroit for the Cup. McCool shut out the Red Wings in the first three games of the Final, and NHL.com says he “remains the only goaltender in NHL history with three consecutive shutouts in the Final.”

Toronto’s 1945 win over Montreal was the longest shot of all

The twelve least likely series wins: the forecast’s chance for the winner before the series, from the two regular-season records alone

The least likely series win was Toronto over Montreal in 1944-45 (10.0%); the 1982 Kings were 12.1% and the 2023 Panthers 12.2%.

Toronto Maple Leafs over Montreal Canadiens, 1944-45.520 vs .800, round 1, 4-2
10.0%
Los Angeles Kings over Edmonton Oilers, 1981-82.394 vs .694, round 1, 3-2
12.1%
Florida Panthers over Boston Bruins, 2022-23.561 vs .823, round 1, 4-3
12.2%
Montreal Canadiens over Detroit Red Wings, 1950-51.464 vs .721, round 1, 4-2
13.5%
Minnesota North Stars over Chicago Blackhawks, 1990-91.425 vs .662, round 1, 4-2
16.0%
Minnesota North Stars over St. Louis Blues, 1990-91.425 vs .656, round 2, 4-2
16.6%
Montreal Canadiens over Boston Bruins, 1929-30.580 vs .875, Final, 2-0
16.9%
New York Rangers over St. Louis Blues, 1980-81.463 vs .669, round 2, 4-2
17.2%
New York Islanders over Pittsburgh Penguins, 1992-93.518 vs .708, round 2, 4-3
20.2%
Calgary Flames over Edmonton Oilers, 1985-86.556 vs .744, round 2, 4-3
20.4%
Montreal Canadiens over Boston Bruins, 1970-71.622 vs .776, round 1, 4-3
20.7%
New York Rangers over New York Islanders, 1978-79.569 vs .725, round 3, 4-2
21.9%
Each label gives the winner, the season and the round; the note gives the two points percentages. Best-of-three and best-of-five series give the underdog more of a chance than a best-of-seven at the same gap. Out of 342 series won by the team with the worse record since 1918.

Every bar is a series winner the forecast gave less than one chance in four. Six of the twelve came in a first round.

Florida in 2023 was a bigger shock than Columbus in 2019

Back to Boston. Florida’s win in 2023 is the biggest upset of the salary-cap era: .561 against .823, the fourth-largest gap ever and the third-least-likely result by the forecast. Boston, as NBC Sports noted, “had not lost three in a row all season.” Florida’s coach, Paul Maurice, said afterwards: “I don’t think you can find a harder team to play against than the Boston Bruins. They will test you.”

Some famous upsets rank lower than memory suggests. Columbus’s sweep of the 62-win Tampa Bay Lightning in 2019 made the Lightning, as CBS Sports put it, “the first team in NHL history to win the Presidents’ Trophy and get swept in the first round.” By the standings it is only the 17th-biggest upset. Dryden’s Canadiens of 1971 go the other way: 36th by the gap, but 11th by the forecast, because in a league as spread out as the 1970s a record was easier to trust.

The Presidents’ Trophy curse is arithmetic

Upsets like these are why the best team so often goes home early, and why people talk of a curse. Since the Presidents’ Trophy was first awarded, for 1985-86, eight of its 40 winners have gone on to win the Cup, 20%. Since 2005-06 it is two of 21. Between expansion and 1985 the best team won 11 of 18.

Neil Paine found the Cup count close to fair. A running team-strength rating (an Elo rating) said Presidents’ Trophy winners should have won 8.2 Cups since 1986. They had won eight, “a minor shortfall at most.”

The series tell the same story, one round at a time, and the curse goes away. Presidents’ Trophy winners have played 102 series and won 70; the forecast expected about 71. On average they went into each series with about a 69% chance. Win four of those in a row and you have a Cup about 23% of the time, close to the one year in five they manage. The early best teams won more Cups because they had fewer rounds to survive: six teams a year made the playoffs from 1926-27 to 1941-42 and only four from 1942-43 to 1966-67, and the best team won 19 of 41 Cups.

The same arithmetic crowns long shots

The same arithmetic makes room for unlikely champions. Since 1985-86 the Cup winner’s median rank in the regular-season standings has been 4th, and 16 of the 40 were fifth or worse. The 2012 Los Angeles Kings were 13th of 30 and, NHL.com notes, “the first No. 8 seed to win the Cup.” “You dream of winning the Cup, and you know what, I’m glad I was the first King to ever lift it,” said their captain, Dustin Brown.

To rank the long-shot champions, we multiply the forecast’s chances for every series a champion won. A team with an even chance in each of four rounds has one chance in 16 of winning all four. That product is the chance, from records alone, that a champion would get through its exact path. The Kings’ path was a 3.1% shot, the fourth-least-likely of 99 Cup runs since 1926-27. Two were longer still, at 1.4% each: the 1979-80 New York Islanders, 5th in the standings, who won the first of four straight Cups, and the 1994-95 New Jersey Devils, 9th in a 48-game season, who swept a Detroit team with the best record in the league. Toronto in 1945 was next (2.6%).

The 1980 Islanders and 1995 Devils were the longest-shot champions

The chance, from regular-season records alone, that the champion would win every series on its path (the forecast’s series chances multiplied together)

The 1979-80 Islanders and 1994-95 Devils each had a 1.4% path; the 2011-12 Kings 3.1%.

New York Islanders, 1979-805th of 21 in the standings; 4 series
1.4%
New Jersey Devils, 1994-959th of 26 in the standings; 4 series
1.4%
Toronto Maple Leafs, 1944-453rd of 6 in the standings; 2 series
2.6%
Los Angeles Kings, 2011-1213th of 30 in the standings; 4 series
3.1%
Pittsburgh Penguins, 1991-926th of 22 in the standings; 4 series
3.2%
Chicago Blackhawks, 1937-386th of 8 in the standings; 3 series
3.4%
Los Angeles Kings, 2013-149th of 30 in the standings; 4 series
3.5%
Florida Panthers, 2024-2511th of 32 in the standings; 4 series
4.3%
Pittsburgh Penguins, 2008-098th of 30 in the standings; 4 series
4.4%
New York Islanders, 1982-836th of 21 in the standings; 4 series
4.6%
Out of 99 Cup winners since 1926-27, when the Cup became the NHL’s alone. The note gives the champion’s regular-season rank. A path’s probability uses only the series the champion actually played; earlier formats had two or three rounds, so their paths are shorter and less unlikely by construction.

Eight of the ten longest shots on the chart had to win four rounds. The Kings, the Penguins and the Islanders each appear twice.

It keeps happening. Last spring Colorado won the Presidents’ Trophy at .738; in the conference final a Vegas team at .579 swept them.

A playoff series is a fair test for its length

  • The regular season still matters, about as much as 82 games of evidence can. A better record is a real edge, and roughly a third of it (33%) is luck.
  • The playoffs are no measurably more random than the regular season. Favourites lose more now because the league is more even. Playoff games themselves are no closer to a coin flip than they were.
  • A Presidents’ Trophy winner that falls short has usually lost a series it was expected to win about seven times in ten. Call it a bad week.

Home ice is one thing the forecast leaves out, and it is real: the better team won 62% of its playoff games at home and 51% on the road. Why that edge has shrunk is a story of its own.

Nobody booked the Kings a plane

In 1982 the Oilers had finished “48 points ahead of the Kings in the Smythe Division standings,” as the Kings’ own website tells it, and “It was expected to be a quick series.” When Edmonton won Game 4 to tie it, the Kings could neither charter a plane nor book a commercial flight to Edmonton for the deciding game, and “ended up sharing an aircraft with the Oilers.”

“That was hilarious. They never dreamed we’d be going back. They never got a plane for us,” Bernie Nicholls said. Daryl Evans, who had scored the overtime winner in Game 3, remembered: “That might have been the quietest flight I’ve ever been on.” The Kings won Game 5, 7-4.

The forecast would have given those Kings about one chance in eight. Forty-one years later it gave the Florida Panthers in Boston almost exactly the same.

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Tests written down
Not in advance (exploratory)
Results computed

Every playoff game since 1917-18 from the NHL’s game lists, grouped into series by the round and series digits of the game id and checked against the NHL’s records site (977 series both ways; win counts match in 977). Excluded: 11 Stanley Cup series against teams from other leagues (1918-26), the 2020 round robin, and 32 series between teams level on points %, leaving 934. The 1927 Final (Ottawa 2-0-2) ended after four games with two ties. The model: each season, true-talent variance in points % = observed variance minus the variance luck gives over each team’s games (from the league’s shares of wins, half-point results and losses), averaged over five seasons; each record is shrunk toward the league mean by talent ÷ (talent + luck), centred on .500 so overtime-loss points do not count, turned into one game’s win chance by the log5 formula and into a series chance by best-of-N maths (a two-game total-goals series as a normal margin over two games). No home ice, nothing fitted to playoff results. The Presidents’ Trophy tie in 2006-07 and 2020-21 goes to the official winner (Buffalo, Colorado).

Every test we graded (About a dozen comparisons, no formal correction. The headline test (all series against the model) was set before any era split; era, round and format splits are reported as checks, and the one low round and one low decade are called noise.)
TestResultVerdict
Playoff upsets happen more often than regular-season luck explainsBetter record won 63.4% vs 63.1% expected; 342 upsets vs 344.5 (z -0.17), n 934No: matches the model

More tests below

Rows 2–4 of 13
TestResultVerdict
How much of a full-season record is talent (the share each record is kept, not pulled back to average)1975-76 88%; 18 full 82-game seasons since 2005-06: 53% to 77%, median 67%; real-strength spread (one standard deviation, luck removed) 14.1 points in 1975-76, 6.1 in 2010-11, 7.6 in 2025-26; average playoff-opponent gap 13.8 points (1970s) and 5.9 (2010s)About two parts talent to one part luck today
Records taken at face value predict the series67.2% expected vs 63.4% actualToo confident; regression to the mean is needed
Holdout: tune the model on even seasons, test on oddBest scale on even seasons 0.89, which scores worse on odd seasons than the untuned model (log-likelihood -0.83)Untuned model holds out of sample

Continues below

Rows 5–7 of 13
TestResultVerdict
The model fits each era1926-42 61.0 vs 59.0 (n 77); 1942-67 70.7 vs 67.5 (n 75); 1967-79 75.3 vs 70.4 (n 97); 1979-93 65.0 vs 66.6 (n 206); 1993-2004 67.5 vs 62.8 (n 160); 2005-13 56.5 vs 58.5 (n 115); 2013-26 56.1 vs 59.0 (n 196)Every 90% range covers the model
Without the 2020 bubble and 2020-21 division seasons63.9% vs 63.2%, n 898Same
Placebo: first-half records forecasting second-half regular-season gamesScale on the model’s odds 1.21 (90% 1.16-1.26), 28,525 games, shootouts left out; playoff games 1.10 (0.96-1.24), 4,866 games (1 = exactly calibrated, below 1 = flatter)Playoff games no flatter than the regular season

Continues below

Rows 8–10 of 13
TestResultVerdict
Modern playoff games are flatter than modern regular-season games2005-26: playoff 0.93 (0.64-1.34, 1,780 games) vs regular season 1.21 (1.10-1.32)Noise: ranges overlap, one era
The win-probability curve by standings gap flattenedLogistic slope per point of gap: 1917-42 0.0287 (90% -0.0211 to 0.0782, n 85); 1942-67 0.0632 (90% 0.0339 to 0.1109, n 75); 1967-93 0.0721 (90% 0.056 to 0.0926, n 303); 1993-2005 0.0717 (90% 0.0501 to 0.096, n 160); 2005-26 0.0556 (90% 0.0336 to 0.08, n 311); five slopes vs one, likelihood-ratio 3.39 on 4 df; even/odd seasons 0.0595 / 0.0692No detectable change
Conference finals are especially upset-prone (since 1979-80)Round 1 65.0% (n 357, model 62.6); round 2 57.2 (180, 61.6); round 3 53.4 (88, 61.5); Final 68.9 (45, 62.4)Noise: four rounds, one low

Continues below

Rows 11–13 of 13
TestResultVerdict
Shorter series produce more upsetstotal goals (2 games) 57.1% (n 35, model 55.2); best of 3 70.0% (n 40, model 61.7); best of 5 63.0% (n 81, model 65.3); best of 7 63.4% (n 778, model 63.3)No, once gaps are accounted for
Presidents’ Trophy winners underperform in series70 of 102 won vs 70.8 expected (1985-86 on); cap era 27 of 46 vs 30.4No; cap-era shortfall about one SD (noise)
Home teams win game 7s61.8% in 1967-93 (n 55); 51.7% in 2005-26 (n 87)Small samples; see the home-ice story

Frequently asked questions

How often does the team with the better record win an NHL playoff series?

About 63% of the time: 592 of 934 series between NHL teams from 1917-18 to 2025-26. It was about 74% in the 1970s and 54% in the 2010s. Since 1979-80, first-round favourites won 65% (357 series).

How many Presidents’ Trophy winners have won the Stanley Cup?

Eight of 40, from 1985-86 to 2025-26, and two of 21 since 2005-06. They have won 70 of 102 playoff series, close to the 70.8 their records predicted.

What is the biggest upset in NHL playoff history?

By the gap in the standings, the 1982 Los Angeles Kings (.394) over the Edmonton Oilers (.694) in the first round, 48 points apart. By the chance the two records gave the winner, the 1945 Toronto Maple Leafs over the Montreal Canadiens (10.0%), with the 1982 Kings second and the 2023 Florida Panthers over the 65-win Boston Bruins third.

Are the NHL playoffs more random than the regular season?

Not by our test. A forecast built only from regular-season records, allowing for luck, predicted the better team would win 63.1% of series and it won 63.4%. Game by game, the same forecast fits playoff games about as well as regular-season games. Favourites lose more often than in the 1970s because the gap between teams has shrunk.

Do shorter playoff series produce more upsets?

Not once the gap between teams is accounted for. The better team won 70% of best-of-three series (40), 63% of best-of-fives (81) and 63% of best-of-sevens (778), each close to what its matchups predicted.

More in Standings and results

All How Hockey Changed research

Sources and method

  1. NHL stats (NHL.com), every season since 1917-18
  2. NHL stats API: playoff and regular-season game lists, and team season summaries (points %)
  3. NHL Records: playoff series (formats, rounds and series results)
  4. Neil Paine, “The Boston Bruins Are Cursed! (Maybe.)” (April 14, 2023)
  5. LA Kings (NHL.com): Leaving on a Jet Plane... with the Edmonton Oilers (April 11, 2019)
  6. NBC Sports, Keenan Slusher: Panthers oust record-setting Bruins 4-3 in OT in Game 7 (May 1, 2023)
  7. NHL.com: Stanley Cup champions 1930-1939 (the 1929-30 Bruins)
  8. NHL.com: Stanley Cup champions 1940-1949 (Frank McCool, 1945)
  9. NHL.com: Stanley Cup champions 1970-1979 (the 1971 Canadiens)
  10. CBS Sports, Pete Blackburn: Lightning swept by Blue Jackets in historic first-round upset (April 16, 2019)
  11. NHL.com: June 11, Kings win Stanley Cup for first time
  12. NHL API reference (community documentation of the stats endpoints)

Research and analysis, not betting advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns; bet only what you can afford to lose.