Anytime Goal Scorer Projections: Track Record
Every game day we publish each skater's chance to score before puck drop. This page keeps the last pre-game number for every player and grades it against who actually scored, so you can check the projections instead of trusting them. Projections, not picks.
Today's anytime goal scorer projections →·First goal scorer projections →
Projected chance vs who scored
1,254 skater-games graded over 6 game days (Oct 6 to Oct 11): average projected chance 17.5%, share who scored 17.0%. Brier score 0.1357 (lower is better).
| Projected chance | Skater-games | Avg projected | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 548 | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| 10–20% | 362 | 18.1% | 18.2% |
| 20–30% | 222 | 25.9% | 25.2% |
| 30–40% | 112 | 35.0% | 33.0% |
| 40–100% | 10 | 46.1% | 20.0% |
Small samples swing: a bucket with a few hundred skater-games can miss by several points by chance alone.
Day by day
- Sunday, October 11, 202689 skaters14.9 expected scorers, 17 scored
- Saturday, October 10, 2026447 skaters71.8 expected scorers, 59 scored
- Friday, October 9, 2026125 skaters19.8 expected scorers, 18 scored
- Thursday, October 8, 2026316 skaters51.9 expected scorers, 49 scored
- Wednesday, October 7, 2026103 skaters15.3 expected scorers, 17 scored
- Tuesday, October 6, 2026275 skaters45.4 expected scorers, 53 scored
How it is graded
- The chance shown is the last projection stored before the player's game started: 1 − e−xG from his projected goals.
- A skater counts once his game is final and he played. Scratches are left out (shown as DNP).
- Shootout goals do not count, the same as an anytime goal scorer market.
- Expected scorers for a day is the sum of every graded skater's chance; it should land near the number who scored over many days.