Betting research
NHL Puck Line Records 2026-27
Every NHL team against the puck line: covers as the favourite at −1.5 and as the underdog at +1.5, at home and on the road, with what the closing prices expected and the units a flat bettor would have made.
No NHL team has 10 games with a line yet in 2026-27 (the most is 5), so no leader is named: every rate below is mostly noise.
Early season: no team has 20 games with a line yet, so every rate here is mostly noise. Last season's full table is one tab over.
Best and worst puck-line cover rates, 2026-27
Boston Bruins100.0%4-0
Buffalo Sabres100.0%4-0
Utah Mammoth100.0%1-0
New York Rangers75.0%3-1
Philadelphia Flyers75.0%3-1
Seattle Kraken75.0%3-1
Pittsburgh Penguins0.0%0-3
Detroit Red Wings0.0%0-4
Washington Capitals25.0%1-3
Ottawa Senators25.0%1-3
Montreal Canadiens25.0%1-3
Columbus Blue Jackets25.0%1-3
Do puck line records repeat?
How far each team's puck-line record ran ahead of or behind the market barely repeats. Odd games against even games within a season: r = 0.00 (2024-25) and 0.08 (2025-26). One season to the next: r = −0.17 across 32 teams. The spread between teams (SD 5.3 pts and 6.1 pts) is about what chance alone produces (5.1 pts; 95th percentile 6.3 pts).
Betting every 2025-26 game of the 10 teams with the best 2024-25 puck-line records returned −8.7% (816 bets); the 10 worst returned −3.4% (816).
So a team at the top of this table has mostly been lucky against prices that were already right. The sample is 2,618 regular-season games with closing lines from 11 US sportsbooks (2024-25 and 2025-26).
Every team, 2026-27
| # | Team | Lines | Cover-fail | Cover % | Market | vs mkt | Units | Home | Away | Favourite | Underdog |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boston Bruins | 4 | 4-0 | 100.0% | – | – | – | – | 4-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| 2 | Buffalo Sabres | 4 | 4-0 | 100.0% | – | – | – | 1-0 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 3-0 |
| 3 | Utah Mammoth | 1 | 1-0 | 100.0% | – | – | – | – | 1-0 | 1-0 | – |
| 4 | New York Rangers | 4 | 3-1 | 75.0% | – | – | – | 2-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| 5 | Philadelphia Flyers | 4 | 3-1 | 75.0% | – | – | – | 2-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 3-0 |
| 6 | Seattle Kraken | 4 | 3-1 | 75.0% | – | – | – | 1-0 | 2-1 | – | 3-1 |
| 7 |  Winnipeg Jets | 4 | 3-1 | 75.0% | – | – | – | 2-0 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 3-0 |
| 8 |  Calgary Flames | 3 | 2-1 | 66.7% | – | – | – | 1-0 | 1-1 | – | 2-1 |
| 9 |  Chicago Blackhawks | 3 | 2-1 | 66.7% | – | – | – | 2-1 | – | – | 2-1 |
| 10 |  Colorado Avalanche | 5 | 3-2 | 60.0% | – | – | – | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| 11 |  San Jose Sharks | 5 | 3-2 | 60.0% | – | – | – | 0-1 | 3-1 | – | 3-2 |
| 12 |  Vegas Golden Knights | 5 | 3-2 | 60.0% | – | – | – | 2-1 | 1-1 | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| 13 |  Carolina Hurricanes | 4 | 2-2 | 50.0% | – | – | – | 1-0 | 1-2 | 2-2 | – |
| 14 |  Dallas Stars | 4 | 2-2 | 50.0% | – | – | – | 0-2 | 2-0 | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| 15 |  Florida Panthers | 4 | 2-2 | 50.0% | – | – | – | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| 16 |  New York Islanders | 4 | 2-2 | 50.0% | – | – | – | 0-2 | 2-0 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| 17 |  St. Louis Blues | 4 | 2-2 | 50.0% | – | – | – | 0-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| 18 |  Tampa Bay Lightning | 4 | 2-2 | 50.0% | – | – | – | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-2 | – |
| 19 |  Toronto Maple Leafs | 4 | 2-2 | 50.0% | – | – | – | 1-2 | 1-0 | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| 20 |  Vancouver Canucks | 4 | 2-2 | 50.0% | – | – | – | 0-1 | 2-1 | – | 2-2 |
| 21 |  Minnesota Wild | 5 | 2-3 | 40.0% | – | – | – | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-3 | 2-0 |
| 22 |  New Jersey Devils | 5 | 2-3 | 40.0% | – | – | – | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| 23 |  Edmonton Oilers | 3 | 1-2 | 33.3% | – | – | – | 0-2 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| 24 |  Los Angeles Kings | 3 | 1-2 | 33.3% | – | – | – | 0-2 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| 25 |  Nashville Predators | 3 | 1-2 | 33.3% | – | – | – | 1-2 | – | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| 26 |  Anaheim Ducks | 4 | 1-3 | 25.0% | – | – | – | 0-2 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| 27 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 4 | 1-3 | 25.0% | – | – | – | 0-3 | 1-0 | 0-3 | 1-0 |
| 28 | Montreal Canadiens | 4 | 1-3 | 25.0% | – | – | – | 0-3 | 1-0 | 0-3 | 1-0 |
| 29 | Ottawa Senators | 4 | 1-3 | 25.0% | – | – | – | 0-2 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| 30 | Washington Capitals | 4 | 1-3 | 25.0% | – | – | – | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| 31 | Detroit Red Wings | 4 | 0-4 | 0.0% | – | – | – | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-4 | – |
| 32 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 3 | 0-3 | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
Lines: Polymarket closing prices (no-vig), so units are not shown. Own side: −1.5 as the favourite, +1.5 as the underdog. Regular season only.
After the vig
Flat 1-unit bets at the median closing price across 11 US books. A blanket bet loses about the vig, and the sign flips between seasons:
| Bet every game on | 2024-25 ROI (bets) | 2025-26 ROI (bets) |
|---|---|---|
| Favourite −1.5 | −1.0% (1,313) | −16.0% (1,306) |
| Underdog +1.5 | −4.5% (1,311) | +2.1% (1,306) |
Our earlier puck-line study found the market overprices favourite −1.5 by about 2 points, roughly the size of the vig, and none of 15 pre-registered angles beat the closing price. Two angles stay on a watch list (underdog +1.5 when our margin model is 3+ points above the price; favourite on the second night of a back-to-back), unproven: live tests.
Current-season units use prediction-market lines where no book prices are stored, so they show as –.
What a puck-line record measures
The puck line is hockey's point spread, fixed at 1.5 goals: the favourite has to win by two or more, the underdog covers by losing by one or winning. A record here is covers and failures on each team's own side, favourite or underdog, graded on the final score. Overtime and shootout games are always one-goal margins, so the underdog covers every one of them. In 2026-27, 32.3% of favourites covered −1.5.
A team's cover rate is mostly its win rate plus noise. Against what the closing price expected, the gap is close to random: the odd-game and even-game halves of a season correlate at about 0.08, and one season predicts the next at −0.17.
Read the record as a description of what happened, not a forecast. Compare the "vs market" column, the cover rate minus what the closing prices implied, before reading anything into a hot team. Our earlier research found no puck-line angle that beat the vig.
Frequently asked questions
Which NHL team has the best puck line record in 2026-27?
BOS leads at 4-0 (100.0%) against the puck line through Oct 20. Records count every game with a closing line, on the team's own side (−1.5 as the favourite, +1.5 as the underdog).
Do NHL puck line records predict future covers?
No. Across 2024-25 and 2025-26 a team's puck-line results against the closing price had a season-to-season correlation of −0.17, and betting last season's 10 best puck-line teams lost −8.7%.
How often does the NHL favourite cover −1.5?
Over 2024-25 and 2025-26, favourites won by two or more about 36.0% of the time, while the closing prices implied about 37.9%. Betting every favourite −1.5 returned −1.0% in 2024-25 (1,313 bets) and −16.0% in 2025-26 (1,306); every underdog +1.5 returned −4.5% in 2024-25 (1,311 bets) and +2.1% in 2025-26 (1,306).
Why does an overtime loss always cover +1.5?
Overtime and shootout games end with a one-goal margin, so the underdog +1.5 wins every one of them and the favourite −1.5 never does. In 2026-27 0.0% of games went past regulation.