Betting research
NHL Puck Line Records 2024-25
Every NHL team against the puck line: covers as the favourite at −1.5 and as the underdog at +1.5, at home and on the road, with what the closing prices expected and the units a flat bettor would have made.
Anaheim Ducks leads NHL teams with a puck-line cover rate of 67.1% in 2024-25 (82 games with a line each), 7.3 points better than Columbus Blue Jackets and Vegas Golden Knights.
Best and worst puck-line cover rates, 2024-25
Anaheim Ducks67.1%55-27 · +12.7 vs mkt
Columbus Blue Jackets59.8%49-33 · +3.9 vs mkt
Vegas Golden Knights59.8%49-33 · +13.7 vs mkt
Detroit Red Wings58.5%48-34 · +4.4 vs mkt
Montreal Canadiens58.5%48-34 · +2.4 vs mkt
San Jose Sharks57.3%47-35 · +4.5 vs mkt
Edmonton Oilers35.4%29-53 · −10.0 vs mkt
New Jersey Devils39.0%32-50 · −4.8 vs mkt
Nashville Predators41.5%34-48 · −9.8 vs mkt
Ottawa Senators42.7%35-47 · −5.4 vs mkt
New York Rangers42.7%35-47 · −5.0 vs mkt
Colorado Avalanche42.7%35-47 · −1.6 vs mkt
Do puck line records repeat?
How far each team's puck-line record ran ahead of or behind the market barely repeats. Odd games against even games within a season: r = 0.00 (2024-25) and 0.08 (2025-26). One season to the next: r = −0.17 across 32 teams. The spread between teams (SD 5.3 pts and 6.1 pts) is about what chance alone produces (5.1 pts; 95th percentile 6.3 pts).
Betting every 2025-26 game of the 10 teams with the best 2024-25 puck-line records returned −8.7% (816 bets); the 10 worst returned −3.4% (816).
So a team at the top of this table has mostly been lucky against prices that were already right. The sample is 2,618 regular-season games with closing lines from 11 US sportsbooks (2024-25 and 2025-26).
Every team, 2024-25
| # | Team | Lines | Cover-fail | Cover % | Market | vs mkt | Units | Home | Away | Favourite | Underdog |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anaheim Ducks | 82 | 55-27 | 67.1% | 54.4% | +12.7 | +17.9u | 27-14 | 28-13 | 4-3 | 51-24 |
| 2 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 82 | 49-33 | 59.8% | 55.8% | +3.9 | +3.1u | 29-12 | 20-21 | 9-7 | 40-26 |
| 3 | Vegas Golden Knights | 82 | 49-33 | 59.8% | 46.0% | +13.7 | +20.0u | 26-15 | 23-18 | 34-31 | 15-2 |
| 4 | Detroit Red Wings | 82 | 48-34 | 58.5% | 54.1% | +4.4 | +3.1u | 25-16 | 23-18 | 8-13 | 40-21 |
| 5 | Montreal Canadiens | 82 | 48-34 | 58.5% | 56.1% | +2.4 | −0.7u | 24-17 | 24-17 | 5-10 | 43-24 |
| 6 | San Jose Sharks | 82 | 47-35 | 57.3% | 52.8% | +4.5 | +5.2u | 23-18 | 24-17 | 1-0 | 46-35 |
| 7 |  St. Louis Blues | 82 | 47-35 | 57.3% | 52.7% | +4.6 | +5.2u | 23-18 | 24-17 | 13-17 | 34-18 |
| 8 |  Washington Capitals | 82 | 47-35 | 57.3% | 50.9% | +6.4 | +7.2u | 23-18 | 24-17 | 21-25 | 26-10 |
| 9 |  Calgary Flames | 82 | 43-39 | 52.4% | 52.6% | −0.2 | −3.5u | 20-21 | 23-18 | 12-17 | 31-22 |
| 10 |  Chicago Blackhawks | 82 | 43-39 | 52.4% | 54.6% | −2.2 | −4.9u | 23-18 | 20-21 | 1-2 | 42-37 |
| 11 |  Pittsburgh Penguins | 82 | 43-39 | 52.4% | 55.2% | −2.8 | −4.6u | 21-20 | 22-19 | 8-12 | 35-27 |
| 12 |  Seattle Kraken | 82 | 43-39 | 52.4% | 53.4% | −1.0 | −3.4u | 21-20 | 22-19 | 10-15 | 33-24 |
| 13 |  Tampa Bay Lightning | 82 | 43-39 | 52.4% | 47.1% | +5.4 | +12.5u | 24-17 | 19-22 | 32-29 | 11-10 |
| 14 |  Buffalo Sabres | 82 | 42-40 | 51.2% | 53.8% | −2.6 | −7.9u | 23-18 | 19-22 | 7-18 | 35-22 |
| 15 |  New York Islanders | 82 | 40-42 | 48.8% | 50.1% | −1.3 | −8.9u | 19-22 | 21-20 | 12-28 | 28-14 |
| 16 |  Philadelphia Flyers | 82 | 40-42 | 48.8% | 53.3% | −4.6 | −8.5u | 16-25 | 24-17 | 8-16 | 32-26 |
| 17 |  Toronto Maple Leafs | 82 | 40-42 | 48.8% | 45.5% | +3.3 | +3.7u | 21-20 | 19-22 | 24-35 | 16-7 |
| 18 |  Vancouver Canucks | 82 | 40-42 | 48.8% | 53.0% | −4.2 | −13.6u | 17-24 | 23-18 | 11-25 | 29-17 |
| 19 |  Winnipeg Jets | 82 | 40-42 | 48.8% | 45.0% | +3.8 | +9.7u | 21-20 | 19-22 | 30-33 | 10-9 |
| 20 |  Los Angeles Kings | 82 | 39-43 | 47.6% | 48.1% | −0.5 | −2.0u | 21-20 | 18-23 | 23-30 | 16-13 |
| 21 |  Minnesota Wild | 82 | 39-43 | 47.6% | 49.2% | −1.7 | −4.6u | 15-26 | 24-17 | 17-26 | 22-17 |
| 22 |  Utah Mammoth | 82 | 39-43 | 47.6% | 50.4% | −2.9 | −6.1u | 16-25 | 23-18 | 15-26 | 24-17 |
| 23 |  Dallas Stars | 82 | 38-44 | 46.3% | 44.9% | +1.4 | +1.0u | 21-20 | 17-24 | 31-40 | 7-4 |
| 24 |  Boston Bruins | 82 | 37-45 | 45.1% | 50.8% | −5.6 | −13.6u | 21-20 | 16-25 | 11-23 | 26-22 |
| 25 |  Carolina Hurricanes | 82 | 37-45 | 45.1% | 45.1% | +0.0 | +0.2u | 24-17 | 13-28 | 34-40 | 3-5 |
| 26 |  Florida Panthers | 82 | 36-46 | 43.9% | 44.5% | −0.6 | −4.8u | 18-23 | 18-23 | 26-41 | 10-5 |
| 27 | Colorado Avalanche | 82 | 35-47 | 42.7% | 44.3% | −1.6 | −4.7u | 18-23 | 17-24 | 29-41 | 6-6 |
| 28 | New York Rangers | 82 | 35-47 | 42.7% | 47.7% | −5.0 | −6.9u | 15-26 | 20-21 | 19-32 | 16-15 |
| 29 | Ottawa Senators | 82 | 35-47 | 42.7% | 48.1% | −5.4 | −12.9u | 17-24 | 18-23 | 14-34 | 21-13 |
| 30 | Nashville Predators | 82 | 34-48 | 41.5% | 51.2% | −9.8 | −19.8u | 19-22 | 15-26 | 11-28 | 23-20 |
| 31 | New Jersey Devils | 82 | 32-50 | 39.0% | 43.8% | −4.8 | −8.8u | 16-25 | 16-25 | 25-42 | 7-8 |
| 32 | Edmonton Oilers | 82 | 29-53 | 35.4% | 45.4% | −10.0 | −21.3u | 12-29 | 17-24 | 20-48 | 9-5 |
Lines: median closing price across 11 US sportsbooks, about an hour before puck drop. Own side: −1.5 as the favourite, +1.5 as the underdog. Regular season only.
After the vig
Flat 1-unit bets at the median closing price across 11 US books. A blanket bet loses about the vig, and the sign flips between seasons:
| Bet every game on | 2024-25 ROI (bets) | 2025-26 ROI (bets) |
|---|---|---|
| Favourite −1.5 | −1.0% (1,313) | −16.0% (1,306) |
| Underdog +1.5 | −4.5% (1,311) | +2.1% (1,306) |
Our earlier puck-line study found the market overprices favourite −1.5 by about 2 points, roughly the size of the vig, and none of 15 pre-registered angles beat the closing price. Two angles stay on a watch list (underdog +1.5 when our margin model is 3+ points above the price; favourite on the second night of a back-to-back), unproven: live tests.
Current-season units use prediction-market lines where no book prices are stored, so they show as –.
What a puck-line record measures
The puck line is hockey's point spread, fixed at 1.5 goals: the favourite has to win by two or more, the underdog covers by losing by one or winning. A record here is covers and failures on each team's own side, favourite or underdog, graded on the final score. Overtime and shootout games are always one-goal margins, so the underdog covers every one of them. In 2024-25, 40.0% of favourites covered −1.5.
A team's cover rate is mostly its win rate plus noise. Against what the closing price expected, the gap is close to random: the odd-game and even-game halves of a season correlate at about 0.08, and one season predicts the next at −0.17.
Read the record as a description of what happened, not a forecast. Compare the "vs market" column, the cover rate minus what the closing prices implied, before reading anything into a hot team. Our earlier research found no puck-line angle that beat the vig.
Frequently asked questions
Which NHL team has the best puck line record in 2024-25?
ANA leads at 55-27 (67.1%) against the puck line through Jun 17. Records count every game with a closing line, on the team's own side (−1.5 as the favourite, +1.5 as the underdog).
Do NHL puck line records predict future covers?
No. Across 2024-25 and 2025-26 a team's puck-line results against the closing price had a season-to-season correlation of −0.17, and betting last season's 10 best puck-line teams lost −8.7%.
How often does the NHL favourite cover −1.5?
Over 2024-25 and 2025-26, favourites won by two or more about 36.0% of the time, while the closing prices implied about 37.9%. Betting every favourite −1.5 returned −1.0% in 2024-25 (1,313 bets) and −16.0% in 2025-26 (1,306); every underdog +1.5 returned −4.5% in 2024-25 (1,311 bets) and +2.1% in 2025-26 (1,306).
Why does an overtime loss always cover +1.5?
Overtime and shootout games end with a one-goal margin, so the underdog +1.5 wins every one of them and the favourite −1.5 never does. In 2024-25 0.0% of games went past regulation.