NHL Shots Allowed Per Game 2026-27

Yes, more than most team numbers. Odd games against even games correlated 0.78 on average from 2017-18 to 2025-26, and one season's shots allowed predicted the next at r = 0.55.

We tested defense vs position on 3,231 shots-on-goal props from 196 games in 2025-26 (closing lines, several US books). The opponent's shots allowed to the player's position, before the game, correlated 0.03 with the result against the line. Against the softest matchups overs hit 51.0% with the market at 50.7% (478 props); against the toughest, 46.8% against 50.2% (530). That is within noise of the prices, and smaller than the vig.

Saves props: books set the line from the same shot volume. We have stored saves prices only since October 2026, too few to grade yet. Our shots model against the books, live: model vs market.

Shots on goal the opponent took per game (shots against), the shots a team puts on the opposing goalie (which are the saves he can make, plus goals), and the saves opposing goalies made. These come from NHL boxscores, regular season only, with home, away and last-10 splits.

Shots allowed are one of the steadier team numbers in hockey: odd and even games correlate at about 0.78, and one season predicts the next at 0.55. Ten-game windows are much noisier than the season line.

For goalie saves props, the opponent's shots per game is the base rate, and teams that take lots of shots give goalies more chances at an over. Books already set saves lines from shot volume, so a high shots-allowed number is a reason to look, not a bet on its own. We do not yet have enough stored saves prices to test it after the vig.