Betting research
NHL Grand Salami Tonight
Every NHL game tonight with its prediction-market total and implied team totals, added up into the grand salami, plus how each night this season and last went against the sum of the lines.
Tonight's 2 NHL games (Oct 21) add up to 11.0 goals on the prediction-market totals, with 11.7 expected from the lines.
Tonight's grand salami
- Sum of game totals11.02 of 2 games priced
- Expected goals11.7from the lines
- Goals so far00 games started
Tonight's games
| Game | Start | Home win | Total | Over | Away implied | Home implied | Expected goals | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PHI@ BUF | 7:30 PM ET | 65% | 5.5 | 56% | 2.53 | 3.37 | 5.89 | – |
 FLA@ OTT | 7:30 PM ET | 50% | 5.5 | 53% | 2.90 | 2.87 | 5.77 | – |
| Grand salami (2 with a line) | 11.0 | 11.7 | – |
Lines: Polymarket, no-vig, the main total is the rung closest to a coin flip. Implied totals: the line adjusted for the chance of the over (fit on 2024-25, checked on 2025-26), split by the goal rates the moneyline implies. Totals count the shootout winner as one goal.
Recent nights
This season, nights with every game priced went 4-1-1 against the added-up totals (6 nights). Last season: 88-64-6 (158 nights).
| Night | Games (priced) | Sum of totals | Expected | Goals | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | 11 (11) | 67.5 | 68.7 | 73 | Over |
| Oct 19 | 4 (3) | 19.5 | 19.9 | 16 | Under |
| Oct 18 | 2 (2) | 13.0 | 12.9 | 8 | Under |
| Oct 17 | 14 (13) | 81.5 | 82.1 | 76 | Under |
| Oct 16 | 2 (2) | 13.0 | 13.4 | 13 | Push |
| Oct 15 | 11 (11) | 68.5 | 69.6 | 70 | Over |
| Oct 14 | 2 (2) | 13.0 | 13.0 | 14 | Over |
| Oct 13 | 16 (15) | 92.5 | 93.5 | 103 | Over |
| Oct 12 | 3 (3) | 16.5 | 17.5 | 19 | Over |
| Oct 11 | 3 (0) | – | – | 21 | – |
| Oct 10 | 14 (0) | – | – | 75 | – |
| Oct 9 | 4 (0) | – | – | 24 | – |
| Oct 8 | 10 (0) | – | – | 62 | – |
| Oct 7 | 3 (0) | – | – | 20 | – |
| Oct 6 | 9 (0) | – | – | 64 | – |
| Oct 5 | 4 (0) | – | – | 20 | – |
| Oct 4 | 5 (0) | – | – | 28 | – |
| Oct 3 | 13 (0) | – | – | 76 | – |
| Oct 2 | 5 (0) | – | – | 27 | – |
| Oct 1 | 8 (0) | – | – | 60 | – |
| Sep 30 | 3 (0) | – | – | 22 | – |
| Sep 29 | 5 (0) | – | – | 27 | – |
Does the salami lean over?
Against the sum of the game totals, yes, a little, and for a structural reason. With every game final and priced, 2024-25 nights went 89-72-8 (169 nights, 1,303 games) and 2025-26 nights 88-64-6 (158, 1,260 games). Goals ran 0.13 and 0.16 per game above the totals.
Against the expected goals the lines imply, the lean disappears: 0.00 goals per game in 2024-25 (where the adjustment was fitted) and 0.02 in 2025-26, the holdout. A total sits at the middle of a game's goals, and goals are skewed toward blowouts, so the average is higher than the line.
After the vig
Books know this and set grand salami lines above the sum of totals, with extra vig on a market fewer people bet. We do not store sportsbook salami lines or prices, so there is no after-vig record here; testing it needs each book's nightly salami line and price. Single-game totals, where we do have prices, lost money on both sides: see over/under records.
What the grand salami measures
The grand salami is the total goals scored across every NHL game on one night. Our number adds up each game's total from the prediction-market lines, and the expected goals the lines imply, which run a little above the totals because one high-scoring game moves the sum more than a quiet one takes away. Shootout winners count one goal, as books settle totals.
Nights swing widely: one night's total is the sum of eight or so noisy games. Over 2024-25 and 2025-26, nights went over the added-up totals 89-72 and 88-64, and goals ran 0.16 per game above the sum of the lines in 2025-26.
Adding up totals understates a night, because totals sit at the middle of each game, not its average. Books set their salami line off the average, so the sum of lines is not the bettable number; we do not store salami prices.
Frequently asked questions
What is the NHL grand salami tonight?
Tonight's 2 games add up to 11.0 goals on the prediction-market totals, with 11.7 expected from the lines.
How often does the NHL grand salami go over?
Against the added-up game totals, nights went over 89-72 in 2024-25 and 88-64 in 2025-26: the sum of totals understates a night by about 0.16 goals per game. Books set salami lines higher for that reason.