Betting research
NHL First Goal Scorer Stats 2026-27
Who scores the first goal of NHL games: every player's first goals this season against what his goal total would predict, each team's rate of scoring first against the market, and last night's first goal scorers.
Mason Marchment (SJS) leads NHL skaters with 3 first goals in 2026-27, 1 more than the next 18.
Most first goals, 2026-27
Mason MarchmentSJS30.5 expected · 3 G
Alexis LafrenièreNYR21.7 expected · 7 G
Matvei MichkovPHI21.1 expected · 6 G
Matt BoldyMIN21.0 expected · 5 G
Tim StützleOTT21.4 expected · 5 G
Cole PerfettiWPG20.8 expected · 5 G
Mason McTavishSTL21.2 expected · 5 G
Beckett SenneckeANA21.1 expected · 5 G
Victor OlofssonVGK20.5 expected · 4 G
Paul CotterVAN20.6 expected · 4 G
Kent JohnsonCBJ21.1 expected · 4 G
Fraser MintenBOS20.7 expected · 4 G
Does first goal scoring repeat?
No, beyond plain goal scoring. Over 3,041 player seasons since 2017-18 (40+ games both seasons), a player's first goals above or below his expected share correlated 0.01 with the next season's. Last season's goal rate predicted next season's first goals at r = 0.56; last season's first goals did worse, at r = 0.39.
Teams are no different: a team's rate of scoring first against the market had a season-to-season correlation of −0.00 (32 teams, 2024-25 to 2025-26). In 2023-24 to 2025-26, 82.7% of first goals came in the first period, 57.7% in the first ten minutes and 19.9% on a power play (3,933 games).
First goal scorer leaders, 2026-27
| # | Player | GP | Goals | First goals | Expected | Per 82 GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason MarchmentSJS · L | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0.5 | 27.3 |
| 2 | Alexis LafrenièreNYR · L | 11 | 7 | 2 | 1.7 | 14.9 |
| 3 | Matvei MichkovPHI · R | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1.1 | 14.9 |
| 4 | Matt BoldyMIN · L | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 18.2 |
| 5 | Tim StützleOTT · C | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1.4 | 18.2 |
| 6 | Cole PerfettiWPG · C | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 20.5 |
| 7 | Mason McTavishSTL · C | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1.2 | 20.5 |
| 8 | Beckett SenneckeANA · R | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1.1 | 20.5 |
| 9 | Victor OlofssonVGK · L | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 41.0 |
| 10 | Paul CotterVAN · L | 10 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 16.4 |
| 11 | Kent JohnsonCBJ · C | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1.1 | 23.4 |
| 12 | Fraser MintenBOS · C | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 18.2 |
| 13 |  Danila YurovMIN · R | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 18.2 |
| 14 |  Jason RobertsonDAL · L | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 20.5 |
| 15 |  Miro HeiskanenDAL · D | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 20.5 |
| 16 |  Evan RodriguesNJD · C | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0.3 | 20.5 |
| 17 |  Sean DurziNYR · D | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 14.9 |
| 18 |  Linus KarlssonVAN · C | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0.3 | 16.4 |
| 19 |  Alex LaferriereLAK · R | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0.3 | 27.3 |
| 20 |  Auston MatthewsTOR · C | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0.9 | 8.2 |
| 21 |  Vasily PodkolzinEDM · R | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0.8 | 10.3 |
| 22 |  Mark JankowskiCAR · L | 9 | 6 | 1 | 1.0 | 9.1 |
| 23 |  Artturi LehkonenCOL · L | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0.9 | 9.1 |
| 24 |  Leon DraisaitlEDM · C | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0.7 | 10.3 |
| 25 |  Connor McDavidEDM · C | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0.7 | 10.3 |
First goal of the game in regulation or overtime; shootouts have no goal scorer. Regular season. Players traded mid-season show every club.
More first goal scorers, 2026-27
- Sebastian Aho CAR1 (1.0 exp)
- Brandon Hagel TBL1 (1.0 exp)
- Andrei Svechnikov CAR1 (1.0 exp)
- Evgeni Malkin PIT1 (0.8 exp)
- Bo Horvat NYI1 (1.1 exp)
- William Nylander TOR1 (0.7 exp)
- Alex Tuch WSH1 (0.7 exp)
- Tage Thompson BUF1 (0.9 exp)
- Cole Caufield MTL1 (0.5 exp)
- Steven Stamkos NSH1 (0.5 exp)
- Ryan O'Reilly NSH1 (0.5 exp)
- Boone Jenner WSH1 (0.5 exp)
- Josh Anderson MTL1 (0.4 exp)
- Jake Guentzel TBL1 (0.7 exp)
- Oliver Bjorkstrand NYR1 (1.0 exp)
- Clayton Keller UTA1 (0.5 exp)
- Brett Howden VGK1 (0.5 exp)
- Nick Suzuki MTL1 (0.4 exp)
- Drake Batherson OTT1 (1.1 exp)
- Nick Robertson PIT1 (0.6 exp)
- Dylan Guenther UTA1 (0.5 exp)
- Logan Stankoven CAR1 (0.7 exp)
- Jimmy Snuggerud STL1 (1.0 exp)
- Trevor Connelly VGK1 (0.5 exp)
- Jordan Eberle SEA1 (0.5 exp)
Teams scoring first, 2026-27
| Team | Scored first | Allowed first | Rate | Market | Actual (same games) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 St. Louis Blues | 7 | 2 | 77.8% | 50.4% | 100.0% |
 New York Rangers | 8 | 3 | 72.7% | 48.7% | 50.0% |
 Anaheim Ducks | 6 | 3 | 66.7% | 49.0% | 25.0% |
 New York Islanders | 6 | 3 | 66.7% | 51.4% | 100.0% |
 Ottawa Senators | 6 | 3 | 66.7% | 51.9% | 50.0% |
 Carolina Hurricanes | 7 | 4 | 63.6% | 57.7% | 50.0% |
 Columbus Blue Jackets | 5 | 3 | 62.5% | 50.7% | 75.0% |
 Boston Bruins | 6 | 4 | 60.0% | 48.5% | 50.0% |
 Colorado Avalanche | 6 | 4 | 60.0% | 54.2% | 40.0% |
 Minnesota Wild | 6 | 4 | 60.0% | 51.6% | 60.0% |
 Seattle Kraken | 6 | 4 | 60.0% | 45.2% | 75.0% |
 Buffalo Sabres | 5 | 4 | 55.6% | 48.1% | 75.0% |
 Edmonton Oilers | 5 | 4 | 55.6% | 50.9% | 33.3% |
 Tampa Bay Lightning | 5 | 4 | 55.6% | 57.3% | 25.0% |
 Pittsburgh Penguins | 5 | 5 | 50.0% | 46.5% | 33.3% |
 Utah Mammoth | 5 | 5 | 50.0% | 50.7% | 100.0% |
 Toronto Maple Leafs | 5 | 6 | 45.5% | 50.2% | 25.0% |
 Vancouver Canucks | 5 | 6 | 45.5% | 39.1% | 50.0% |
 Vegas Golden Knights | 5 | 6 | 45.5% | 54.2% | 40.0% |
 Dallas Stars | 4 | 5 | 44.4% | 52.1% | 25.0% |
 New Jersey Devils | 4 | 5 | 44.4% | 50.5% | 80.0% |
 Winnipeg Jets | 4 | 5 | 44.4% | 48.0% | 50.0% |
 Washington Capitals | 4 | 5 | 44.4% | 50.5% | 50.0% |
 Los Angeles Kings | 3 | 4 | 42.9% | 49.0% | 33.3% |
 San Jose Sharks | 4 | 6 | 40.0% | 46.3% | 60.0% |
 Montreal Canadiens | 3 | 5 | 37.5% | 53.5% | 25.0% |
 Nashville Predators | 3 | 5 | 37.5% | 49.8% | 33.3% |
 Chicago Blackhawks | 3 | 6 | 33.3% | 45.2% | 66.7% |
 Philadelphia Flyers | 3 | 8 | 27.3% | 45.6% | 50.0% |
 Calgary Flames | 2 | 6 | 25.0% | 41.9% | 33.3% |
 Detroit Red Wings | 2 | 6 | 25.0% | 52.2% | 25.0% |
 Florida Panthers | 2 | 7 | 22.2% | 53.9% | 25.0% |
First goal scorers, Oct 20
- SJS @ MTLMacklin CelebriniSJS · P1 13:49
- COL @ NJDLuke EvangelistaNJD · P1 6:40
- ANA @ NYIOndrej PalatNYI · P1 13:39
- LAK @ WSHRyan LeonardWSH · P1 9:25
- TOR @ CBJJake ChristiansenCBJ · P1 2:38
- WPG @ STLJimmy SnuggerudSTL · P1 12:30
- BOS @ DALMatthew PoitrasBOS · P1 2:09
- MIN @ EDMJoel Eriksson EkMIN · P1 3:32
- DET @ SEAMackie SamoskevichSEA · P1 6:45
- CAR @ VANLogan StankovenCAR · P1 4:44
- TBL @ VGKBrandon HagelTBL · P1 4:11 · 5v4
Against the market
The closing lines barely know who will score first, and neither does anyone else: over 2,616 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26, the market's implied chance of each team scoring first scored 0.2491 (Brier), against 0.2500 for a coin flip. Big favourites score first less often than their goal rates suggest.
We do not store first goal scorer prices, so this page makes no after-vig claim for that market. Testing it would need the books' first-goal-scorer odds for each game (the Odds API “player_goal_scorer_first” market, roughly one extra historical call per game). For anytime goals, where we do log every price, the books have beaten our model so far: see model vs market.
Tonight's chances for every skater are on the first goal scorer projections.
What first goal scorer counts measure
The first goal of a game, regulation or overtime (shootouts have no goal scorer), and who scored it. "Expected" is the player's goals times his team's share of goals that opened the scoring, about 16% league-wide: what an average scorer on that team would have. In 2023-24 to 2025-26, 83% of first goals came in the first period and 58% in the first ten minutes.
First goals are goals with a timestamp. Over 3,041 player seasons, the gap between first goals and that expectation had a season-to-season correlation of 0.01: there is no repeatable "first goal skill". Last season's goal rate predicts next season's first goals better (r = 0.56) than last season's first goals do (r = 0.39).
Price a first goal scorer bet from the player's goal share and his team's chance to score first, not from a first-goal count.
Frequently asked questions
Who has the most first goals in the NHL in 2026-27?
Mason Marchment has scored the first goal of 3 games this season through Oct 20, against 0.5 expected from his goals and his team's share of first goals.
Is scoring the first goal a skill?
Not one that repeats. Over 3,041 player seasons, first goals above or below a player's expected share correlated 0.01 from one season to the next. Goal scoring repeats; the timing does not.
How often does the team that scores first win in the NHL?
Teams that scored first won 67.3% of games in 2025-26, and between 65.7% and 68.1% in every season since 2017-18.
Does the market predict which team scores first?
Barely, and nothing does much better. Over 2,616 games, the closing lines' chance of each team scoring first (from the goal rates they imply) had a Brier score of 0.2491, against 0.2500 for a coin flip.