Betting research

NHL First Goal Scorer Stats 2023-24

Who scores the first goal of NHL games: every player's first goals this season against what his goal total would predict, each team's rate of scoring first against the market, and last night's first goal scorers.

David Pastrnak (BOS) leads NHL skaters with 13 first goals in 2023-24, 3 more than Artemi Panarin (NYR), Sidney Crosby (PIT) and Adrian Kempe (LAK).

Updated Oct 20, 6:05 PM ET after EDM 1, FLA 2 (Jun 24)

Most first goals, 2023-24

David PastrnakBOS138.8 expected · 47 G
Artemi PanarinNYR108.1 expected · 49 G
Sidney CrosbyPIT107.8 expected · 42 G
Adrian KempeLAK105.2 expected · 28 G
Auston MatthewsTOR911.1 expected · 69 G
Connor McDavidEDM94.7 expected · 32 G
JJ PeterkaBUF94.1 expected · 28 G
Anthony ManthaVGK,WSH94.0 expected · 23 G
Jonathan MarchessaultVGK87.2 expected · 42 G
Leon DraisaitlEDM86.0 expected · 41 G
J.T. MillerVAN87.0 expected · 37 G
Sebastian AhoCAR86.0 expected · 36 G

Does first goal scoring repeat?

No, beyond plain goal scoring. Over 3,041 player seasons since 2017-18 (40+ games both seasons), a player's first goals above or below his expected share correlated 0.01 with the next season's. Last season's goal rate predicted next season's first goals at r = 0.56; last season's first goals did worse, at r = 0.39.

Teams are no different: a team's rate of scoring first against the market had a season-to-season correlation of −0.00 (32 teams, 2024-25 to 2025-26). In 2023-24 to 2025-26, 82.7% of first goals came in the first period, 57.7% in the first ten minutes and 19.9% on a power play (3,933 games).

First goal scorer leaders, 2023-24

Most first goals, NHL 2023-24: first goals, goals, expected first goals
#	Player	GP	Goals	First goals	Expected	Per 82 GP
1	David PastrnakBOS · R	82	47	13	8.8	13.0
2	Artemi PanarinNYR · L	82	49	10	8.1	10.0
3	Sidney CrosbyPIT · C	82	42	10	7.8	10.0
4	Adrian KempeLAK · R	77	28	10	5.2	10.6
5	Auston MatthewsTOR · C	81	69	9	11.1	9.1
6	Connor McDavidEDM · C	76	32	9	4.7	9.7
7	JJ PeterkaBUF · R	82	28	9	4.1	9.0
8	Anthony ManthaVGK,WSH · R	74	23	9	4.0	10.0
9	Jonathan MarchessaultVGK · R	82	42	8	7.2	8.0
10	Leon DraisaitlEDM · C	81	41	8	6.0	8.1
11	J.T. MillerVAN · C	81	37	8	7.0	8.1
12	Sebastian AhoCAR · C	78	36	8	6.0	8.4
13	Matt BoldyMIN · L	75	29	8	5.0	8.7
14	Filip ForsbergNSH · L	82	48	7	8.7	7.0
15	Brayden PointTBL · C	81	46	7	6.1	7.1
16	Kirill KaprizovMIN · L	75	46	7	8.0	7.7
17	William NylanderTOR · R	82	40	7	6.4	7.0
18	Travis KonecnyPHI · R	76	33	7	6.0	7.6
19	Clayton KellerARI · R	78	33	7	4.7	7.4
20	Jack EichelVGK · C	63	31	7	5.3	9.1
21	Kevin FialaLAK · L	82	29	7	5.4	7.0
22	Jake NeighboursSTL · L	77	27	7	4.5	7.5
23	Nick PaulTBL · L	82	24	7	3.2	7.0
24	Boone JennerCBJ · C	58	22	7	4.2	9.9
25	Connor BedardCHI · C	68	22	7	4.2	8.4

First goal of the game in regulation or overtime; shootouts have no goal scorer. Regular season. Players traded mid-season show every club.

More first goal scorers, 2023-24

Daniel Sprong DET7 (2.4 exp)
Sam Reinhart FLA6 (9.3 exp)
Nathan MacKinnon COL6 (7.6 exp)
Mikko Rantanen COL6 (6.3 exp)
Brock Boeser VAN6 (7.6 exp)
Brady Tkachuk OTT6 (5.5 exp)
Carter Verhaeghe FLA6 (5.5 exp)
Brad Marchand BOS6 (5.4 exp)
Vincent Trocheck NYR6 (4.1 exp)
Mark Scheifele WPG6 (4.0 exp)
Fabian Zetterlund SJS6 (4.5 exp)
Nils Hoglander VAN6 (4.6 exp)
Joel Farabee PHI6 (4.0 exp)
Conor Garland VAN6 (3.8 exp)
Ivan Barbashev VGK6 (3.3 exp)
Adam Fox NYR6 (2.8 exp)
Ross Colton COL6 (2.5 exp)
Quinn Hughes VAN6 (3.2 exp)
Colton Sissons NSH6 (2.7 exp)
Scott Laughton PHI6 (2.4 exp)
Pavel Dorofeyev VGK6 (2.2 exp)
Ryan McLeod EDM6 (1.8 exp)
Brock Nelson NYI5 (5.8 exp)
Kyle Connor WPG5 (5.4 exp)
Dylan Larkin DET5 (4.3 exp)

Teams scoring first, 2023-24

NHL teams scoring first 2023-24: rate and the market's expectation
Team	Scored first	Allowed first	Rate	Market	Actual (same games)
Vancouver Canucks	53	29	64.6%	–	–
Boston Bruins	49	33	59.8%	–	–
Nashville Predators	48	34	58.5%	–	–
Toronto Maple Leafs	48	34	58.5%	–	–
Los Angeles Kings	47	35	57.3%	–	–
Pittsburgh Penguins	47	35	57.3%	–	–
Carolina Hurricanes	46	36	56.1%	–	–
New York Rangers	46	36	56.1%	–	–
Columbus Blue Jackets	45	37	54.9%	–	–
Colorado Avalanche	45	37	54.9%	–	–
Vegas Golden Knights	45	37	54.9%	–	–
Edmonton Oilers	43	39	52.4%	–	–
Florida Panthers	43	39	52.4%	–	–
Minnesota Wild	43	39	52.4%	–	–
New York Islanders	42	39	51.9%	–	–
Philadelphia Flyers	42	39	51.9%	–	–
Montreal Canadiens	42	40	51.2%	–	–
Winnipeg Jets	41	41	50.0%	–	–
Dallas Stars	40	42	48.8%	–	–
St. Louis Blues	39	43	47.6%	–	–
Seattle Kraken	38	44	46.3%	–	–
Tampa Bay Lightning	38	44	46.3%	–	–
Washington Capitals	38	44	46.3%	–	–
Ottawa Senators	37	45	45.1%	–	–
Arizona Coyotes	36	46	43.9%	–	–
Buffalo Sabres	36	46	43.9%	–	–
Detroit Red Wings	36	46	43.9%	–	–
Calgary Flames	35	47	42.7%	–	–
Chicago Blackhawks	34	48	41.5%	–	–
San Jose Sharks	34	48	41.5%	–	–
Anaheim Ducks	30	52	36.6%	–	–
New Jersey Devils	25	57	30.5%	–	–

First goal scorers, Apr 18

SEA @ MINKirill KaprizovMIN · P1 4:04 · 5v4
VAN @ WPGConor GarlandVAN · P1 5:22
SJS @ CGYAdam KlapkaCGY · P1 12:13
EDM @ COLValeri NichushkinCOL · P1 1:19
ANA @ VGKFrank VatranoANA · P2 4:25 · 5v4
CHI @ LAKLukas ReichelCHI · P1 15:39

Against the market

The closing lines barely know who will score first, and neither does anyone else: over 2,616 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26, the market's implied chance of each team scoring first scored 0.2491 (Brier), against 0.2500 for a coin flip. Big favourites score first less often than their goal rates suggest.

We do not store first goal scorer prices, so this page makes no after-vig claim for that market. Testing it would need the books' first-goal-scorer odds for each game (the Odds API “player_goal_scorer_first” market, roughly one extra historical call per game). For anytime goals, where we do log every price, the books have beaten our model so far: see model vs market.

Tonight's chances for every skater are on the first goal scorer projections.

What first goal scorer counts measure

The first goal of a game, regulation or overtime (shootouts have no goal scorer), and who scored it. "Expected" is the player's goals times his team's share of goals that opened the scoring, about 16% league-wide: what an average scorer on that team would have. In 2023-24 to 2025-26, 83% of first goals came in the first period and 58% in the first ten minutes.

First goals are goals with a timestamp. Over 3,041 player seasons, the gap between first goals and that expectation had a season-to-season correlation of 0.01: there is no repeatable "first goal skill". Last season's goal rate predicts next season's first goals better (r = 0.56) than last season's first goals do (r = 0.39).

Price a first goal scorer bet from the player's goal share and his team's chance to score first, not from a first-goal count.

Frequently asked questions

Who has the most first goals in the NHL in 2023-24?

David Pastrnak has scored the first goal of 13 games this season through Jun 24, against 8.8 expected from his goals and his team's share of first goals.

Is scoring the first goal a skill?

Not one that repeats. Over 3,041 player seasons, first goals above or below a player's expected share correlated 0.01 from one season to the next. Goal scoring repeats; the timing does not.

How often does the team that scores first win in the NHL?

Teams that scored first won 67.3% of games in 2025-26, and between 65.7% and 68.1% in every season since 2017-18.

Does the market predict which team scores first?

Barely, and nothing does much better. Over 2,616 games, the closing lines' chance of each team scoring first (from the goal rates they imply) had a Brier score of 0.2491, against 0.2500 for a coin flip.