Betting research
NHL First Goal Scorer Stats 2017-18
Who scores the first goal of NHL games: every player's first goals this season against what his goal total would predict, each team's rate of scoring first against the market, and last night's first goal scorers.
Patrik Laine (WPG) leads NHL skaters with 11 first goals in 2017-18, 1 more than Brendan Gallagher (MTL) and Craig Smith (NSH).
Most first goals, 2017-18
Patrik LaineWPG117.6 expected · 44 G
Brendan GallagherMTL105.5 expected · 31 G
Craig SmithNSH104.9 expected · 25 G
Vladimir TarasenkoSTL96.7 expected · 33 G
Kevin HayesNYR93.8 expected · 25 G
Connor McDavidEDM86.6 expected · 41 G
Tyler SeguinDAL87.6 expected · 40 G
Claude GirouxPHI84.8 expected · 34 G
Jason ZuckerMIN85.3 expected · 33 G
Patrick KaneCHI85.5 expected · 27 G
Alex TuchVGK82.3 expected · 15 G
Anders LeeNYI75.8 expected · 40 G
Does first goal scoring repeat?
No, beyond plain goal scoring. Over 3,041 player seasons since 2017-18 (40+ games both seasons), a player's first goals above or below his expected share correlated 0.01 with the next season's. Last season's goal rate predicted next season's first goals at r = 0.56; last season's first goals did worse, at r = 0.39.
Teams are no different: a team's rate of scoring first against the market had a season-to-season correlation of −0.00 (32 teams, 2024-25 to 2025-26). In 2023-24 to 2025-26, 82.7% of first goals came in the first period, 57.7% in the first ten minutes and 19.9% on a power play (3,933 games).
First goal scorer leaders, 2017-18
| # | Player | GP | Goals | First goals | Expected | Per 82 GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrik LaineWPG · L | 82 | 44 | 11 | 7.6 | 11.0 |
| 2 | Brendan GallagherMTL · R | 82 | 31 | 10 | 5.5 | 10.0 |
| 3 | Craig SmithNSH · C | 79 | 25 | 10 | 4.9 | 10.4 |
| 4 | Vladimir TarasenkoSTL · R | 80 | 33 | 9 | 6.7 | 9.2 |
| 5 | Kevin HayesNYR · R | 76 | 25 | 9 | 3.8 | 9.7 |
| 6 | Connor McDavidEDM · C | 82 | 41 | 8 | 6.6 | 8.0 |
| 7 | Tyler SeguinDAL · C | 82 | 40 | 8 | 7.6 | 8.0 |
| 8 | Claude GirouxPHI · R | 82 | 34 | 8 | 4.8 | 8.0 |
| 9 | Jason ZuckerMIN · L | 82 | 33 | 8 | 5.3 | 8.0 |
| 10 | Patrick KaneCHI · R | 82 | 27 | 8 | 5.5 | 8.0 |
| 11 | Alex TuchVGK · R | 78 | 15 | 8 | 2.3 | 8.4 |
| 12 | Anders LeeNYI · L | 82 | 40 | 7 | 5.8 | 7.0 |
| 13 |  James van RiemsdykTOR · L | 81 | 36 | 7 | 6.7 | 7.1 |
| 14 |  Brad MarchandBOS · L | 68 | 34 | 7 | 4.7 | 8.4 |
| 15 |  Logan CoutureSJS · C | 78 | 34 | 7 | 5.5 | 7.4 |
| 16 |  Nazem KadriTOR · C | 80 | 32 | 7 | 5.9 | 7.2 |
| 17 |  Brayden PointTBL · C | 82 | 32 | 7 | 4.7 | 7.0 |
| 18 |  Adam HenriqueANA,NJD · C | 81 | 24 | 7 | 4.2 | 7.1 |
| 19 |  Ryan O'ReillyBUF · C | 81 | 24 | 7 | 4.5 | 7.1 |
| 20 |  Clayton KellerARI · R | 82 | 23 | 7 | 5.1 | 7.0 |
| 21 |  Alex OvechkinWSH · L | 82 | 49 | 6 | 7.1 | 6.0 |
| 22 |  William KarlssonVGK · C | 82 | 43 | 6 | 6.6 | 6.0 |
| 23 |  Eric StaalMIN · C | 82 | 42 | 6 | 6.7 | 6.0 |
| 24 |  Evgeni MalkinPIT · C | 78 | 42 | 6 | 7.3 | 6.3 |
| 25 |  Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C | 74 | 39 | 6 | 7.2 | 6.6 |
First goal of the game in regulation or overtime; shootouts have no goal scorer. Regular season. Players traded mid-season show every club.
More first goal scorers, 2017-18
- Jamie Benn DAL6 (6.9 exp)
- David Pastrnak BOS6 (4.8 exp)
- Jonathan Huberdeau FLA6 (5.1 exp)
- Aleksander Barkov FLA6 (5.1 exp)
- Gabriel Landeskog COL6 (4.6 exp)
- Leon Draisaitl EDM6 (4.0 exp)
- Kevin Fiala NSH6 (4.5 exp)
- Artem Anisimov CHI6 (4.0 exp)
- T.J. Oshie WSH6 (2.6 exp)
- Chris Kreider NYR6 (2.5 exp)
- Ryan Johansen NSH6 (2.9 exp)
- Benoit Pouliot BUF6 (2.4 exp)
- Nikita Kucherov TBL5 (5.8 exp)
- John Tavares NYI5 (5.4 exp)
- Auston Matthews TOR5 (6.3 exp)
- Sean Monahan CGY5 (4.9 exp)
- Sidney Crosby PIT5 (5.0 exp)
- Patric Hornqvist PIT5 (5.0 exp)
- Evander Kane BUF,SJS5 (5.2 exp)
- Mikko Rantanen COL5 (5.3 exp)
- Sebastian Aho CAR5 (5.9 exp)
- Steven Stamkos TBL5 (4.0 exp)
- Artemi Panarin CBJ5 (5.3 exp)
- Tyler Toffoli LAK5 (3.2 exp)
- Mark Scheifele WPG5 (4.0 exp)
Teams scoring first, 2017-18
| Team | Scored first | Allowed first | Rate | Market | Actual (same games) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nashville Predators | 51 | 31 | 62.2% | – | – |
 Toronto Maple Leafs | 50 | 32 | 61.0% | – | – |
 Colorado Avalanche | 47 | 35 | 57.3% | – | – |
 Pittsburgh Penguins | 47 | 35 | 57.3% | – | – |
 Winnipeg Jets | 47 | 35 | 57.3% | – | – |
 Arizona Coyotes | 46 | 36 | 56.1% | – | – |
 Carolina Hurricanes | 46 | 36 | 56.1% | – | – |
 Columbus Blue Jackets | 46 | 36 | 56.1% | – | – |
 Chicago Blackhawks | 46 | 36 | 56.1% | – | – |
 Florida Panthers | 46 | 36 | 56.1% | – | – |
 St. Louis Blues | 45 | 37 | 54.9% | – | – |
 Dallas Stars | 44 | 38 | 53.7% | – | – |
 Tampa Bay Lightning | 43 | 39 | 52.4% | – | – |
 Detroit Red Wings | 42 | 40 | 51.2% | – | – |
 Anaheim Ducks | 41 | 41 | 50.0% | – | – |
 Vegas Golden Knights | 41 | 41 | 50.0% | – | – |
 Minnesota Wild | 40 | 42 | 48.8% | – | – |
 San Jose Sharks | 40 | 42 | 48.8% | – | – |
 New Jersey Devils | 39 | 43 | 47.6% | – | – |
 New York Islanders | 38 | 44 | 46.3% | – | – |
 Montreal Canadiens | 37 | 44 | 45.7% | – | – |
 Washington Capitals | 37 | 44 | 45.7% | – | – |
 Boston Bruins | 37 | 45 | 45.1% | – | – |
 Buffalo Sabres | 37 | 45 | 45.1% | – | – |
 Edmonton Oilers | 37 | 45 | 45.1% | – | – |
 New York Rangers | 35 | 46 | 43.2% | – | – |
 Philadelphia Flyers | 35 | 46 | 43.2% | – | – |
 Calgary Flames | 34 | 48 | 41.5% | – | – |
 Vancouver Canucks | 33 | 49 | 40.2% | – | – |
 Los Angeles Kings | 32 | 50 | 39.0% | – | – |
 Ottawa Senators | 30 | 52 | 36.6% | – | – |
First goal scorers, Apr 8
- FLA @ BOSHenrik BorgstromFLA · P1 1:22
Against the market
The closing lines barely know who will score first, and neither does anyone else: over 2,616 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26, the market's implied chance of each team scoring first scored 0.2491 (Brier), against 0.2500 for a coin flip. Big favourites score first less often than their goal rates suggest.
We do not store first goal scorer prices, so this page makes no after-vig claim for that market. Testing it would need the books' first-goal-scorer odds for each game (the Odds API “player_goal_scorer_first” market, roughly one extra historical call per game). For anytime goals, where we do log every price, the books have beaten our model so far: see model vs market.
Tonight's chances for every skater are on the first goal scorer projections.
What first goal scorer counts measure
The first goal of a game, regulation or overtime (shootouts have no goal scorer), and who scored it. "Expected" is the player's goals times his team's share of goals that opened the scoring, about 16% league-wide: what an average scorer on that team would have. In 2023-24 to 2025-26, 83% of first goals came in the first period and 58% in the first ten minutes.
First goals are goals with a timestamp. Over 3,041 player seasons, the gap between first goals and that expectation had a season-to-season correlation of 0.01: there is no repeatable "first goal skill". Last season's goal rate predicts next season's first goals better (r = 0.56) than last season's first goals do (r = 0.39).
Price a first goal scorer bet from the player's goal share and his team's chance to score first, not from a first-goal count.
Frequently asked questions
Who has the most first goals in the NHL in 2017-18?
Patrik Laine has scored the first goal of 11 games this season through Jun 7, against 7.6 expected from his goals and his team's share of first goals.
Is scoring the first goal a skill?
Not one that repeats. Over 3,041 player seasons, first goals above or below a player's expected share correlated 0.01 from one season to the next. Goal scoring repeats; the timing does not.
How often does the team that scores first win in the NHL?
Teams that scored first won 67.3% of games in 2025-26, and between 65.7% and 68.1% in every season since 2017-18.
Does the market predict which team scores first?
Barely, and nothing does much better. Over 2,616 games, the closing lines' chance of each team scoring first (from the goal rates they imply) had a Brier score of 0.2491, against 0.2500 for a coin flip.