Betting research
NHL First Goal Scorer Stats 2019-20
Who scores the first goal of NHL games: every player's first goals this season against what his goal total would predict, each team's rate of scoring first against the market, and last night's first goal scorers.
David Pastrnak (BOS) leads NHL skaters with 15 first goals in 2019-20, 7 more than the next 4.
Most first goals, 2019-20
David PastrnakBOS158.7 expected · 48 G
Leon DraisaitlEDM87.5 expected · 43 G
Nikita KucherovTBL85.6 expected · 33 G
Adam HenriqueANA85.1 expected · 26 G
Evgenii DadonovFLA83.8 expected · 25 G
Mika ZibanejadNYR77.0 expected · 41 G
Brayden PointTBL74.2 expected · 25 G
Travis KonecnyPHI74.1 expected · 24 G
Jakob SilfverbergANA74.2 expected · 21 G
Anders LeeNYI73.8 expected · 20 G
Christian DvorakARI73.4 expected · 18 G
Alex OvechkinWSH66.7 expected · 48 G
Does first goal scoring repeat?
No, beyond plain goal scoring. Over 3,041 player seasons since 2017-18 (40+ games both seasons), a player's first goals above or below his expected share correlated 0.01 with the next season's. Last season's goal rate predicted next season's first goals at r = 0.56; last season's first goals did worse, at r = 0.39.
Teams are no different: a team's rate of scoring first against the market had a season-to-season correlation of −0.00 (32 teams, 2024-25 to 2025-26). In 2023-24 to 2025-26, 82.7% of first goals came in the first period, 57.7% in the first ten minutes and 19.9% on a power play (3,933 games).
First goal scorer leaders, 2019-20
| # | Player | GP | Goals | First goals | Expected | Per 82 GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David PastrnakBOS · R | 70 | 48 | 15 | 8.7 | 17.6 |
| 2 | Leon DraisaitlEDM · C | 71 | 43 | 8 | 7.5 | 9.2 |
| 3 | Nikita KucherovTBL · R | 68 | 33 | 8 | 5.6 | 9.6 |
| 4 | Adam HenriqueANA · C | 71 | 26 | 8 | 5.1 | 9.2 |
| 5 | Evgenii DadonovFLA · L | 69 | 25 | 8 | 3.8 | 9.5 |
| 6 | Mika ZibanejadNYR · C | 57 | 41 | 7 | 7.0 | 10.1 |
| 7 | Brayden PointTBL · C | 66 | 25 | 7 | 4.2 | 8.7 |
| 8 | Travis KonecnyPHI · R | 66 | 24 | 7 | 4.1 | 8.7 |
| 9 | Jakob SilfverbergANA · R | 66 | 21 | 7 | 4.2 | 8.7 |
| 10 | Anders LeeNYI · L | 68 | 20 | 7 | 3.8 | 8.4 |
| 11 | Christian DvorakARI · C | 70 | 18 | 7 | 3.4 | 8.2 |
| 12 | Alex OvechkinWSH · L | 68 | 48 | 6 | 6.7 | 7.2 |
| 13 |  Sebastian AhoCAR · C | 68 | 38 | 6 | 5.4 | 7.2 |
| 14 |  Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C | 69 | 35 | 6 | 6.4 | 7.1 |
| 15 |  Artemi PanarinNYR · L | 69 | 32 | 6 | 5.5 | 7.1 |
| 16 |  Elias LindholmCGY · C | 70 | 29 | 6 | 4.3 | 7.0 |
| 17 |  Evgeni MalkinPIT · C | 55 | 25 | 6 | 3.6 | 8.9 |
| 18 |  Brayden SchennSTL · C | 71 | 25 | 6 | 4.4 | 6.9 |
| 19 |  Nikolaj EhlersWPG · L | 71 | 25 | 6 | 3.6 | 6.9 |
| 20 |  Anze KopitarLAK · C | 70 | 21 | 6 | 4.5 | 7.0 |
| 21 |  Mark StoneVGK · R | 65 | 21 | 6 | 3.2 | 7.6 |
| 22 |  Tyler BertuzziDET · L | 71 | 21 | 6 | 4.4 | 6.9 |
| 23 |  Jack EichelBUF · C | 68 | 36 | 5 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| 24 |  Reilly SmithVGK · R | 71 | 27 | 5 | 4.1 | 5.8 |
| 25 |  John TavaresTOR · C | 63 | 26 | 5 | 3.4 | 6.5 |
First goal of the game in regulation or overtime; shootouts have no goal scorer. Regular season. Players traded mid-season show every club.
More first goal scorers, 2019-20
- Evander Kane SJS5 (4.6 exp)
- Tyler Toffoli LAK,VAN5 (4.7 exp)
- Kevin Fiala MIN5 (3.6 exp)
- Brendan Gallagher MTL5 (4.0 exp)
- Brandon Saad CHI5 (3.2 exp)
- Jamie Benn DAL5 (3.4 exp)
- Craig Smith NSH5 (3.1 exp)
- Johnny Gaudreau CGY5 (2.6 exp)
- Jeff Carter LAK5 (3.6 exp)
- Clayton Keller ARI5 (3.2 exp)
- Phil Kessel ARI5 (2.6 exp)
- Filip Chytil NYR5 (2.4 exp)
- Phillip Danault MTL5 (2.4 exp)
- Jakub Voracek PHI5 (2.1 exp)
- Lucas Wallmark CAR,FLA5 (1.7 exp)
- Kyle Connor WPG4 (5.5 exp)
- Connor McDavid EDM4 (6.0 exp)
- Patrick Kane CHI4 (5.1 exp)
- Max Pacioretty VGK4 (4.9 exp)
- Patrice Bergeron BOS4 (5.6 exp)
- William Nylander TOR4 (4.0 exp)
- Dominik Kubalik CHI4 (4.6 exp)
- Steven Stamkos TBL4 (4.9 exp)
- Mike Hoffman FLA4 (4.5 exp)
- Brad Marchand BOS4 (5.1 exp)
Teams scoring first, 2019-20
| Team | Scored first | Allowed first | Rate | Market | Actual (same games) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Colorado Avalanche | 43 | 27 | 61.4% | – | – |
 Boston Bruins | 41 | 29 | 58.6% | – | – |
 Tampa Bay Lightning | 41 | 29 | 58.6% | – | – |
 New York Rangers | 40 | 30 | 57.1% | – | – |
 Philadelphia Flyers | 39 | 30 | 56.5% | – | – |
 Edmonton Oilers | 39 | 31 | 55.7% | – | – |
 Los Angeles Kings | 38 | 31 | 55.1% | – | – |
 St. Louis Blues | 39 | 32 | 54.9% | – | – |
 Nashville Predators | 37 | 32 | 53.6% | – | – |
 Montreal Canadiens | 38 | 33 | 53.5% | – | – |
 New York Islanders | 36 | 32 | 52.9% | – | – |
 Arizona Coyotes | 36 | 34 | 51.4% | – | – |
 Columbus Blue Jackets | 36 | 34 | 51.4% | – | – |
 Buffalo Sabres | 35 | 34 | 50.7% | – | – |
 Florida Panthers | 35 | 34 | 50.7% | – | – |
 Anaheim Ducks | 36 | 35 | 50.7% | – | – |
 Minnesota Wild | 34 | 35 | 49.3% | – | – |
 Vegas Golden Knights | 34 | 37 | 47.9% | – | – |
 Washington Capitals | 33 | 36 | 47.8% | – | – |
 Dallas Stars | 32 | 37 | 46.4% | – | – |
 Pittsburgh Penguins | 32 | 37 | 46.4% | – | – |
 Chicago Blackhawks | 32 | 38 | 45.7% | – | – |
 San Jose Sharks | 32 | 38 | 45.7% | – | – |
 Carolina Hurricanes | 31 | 37 | 45.6% | – | – |
 New Jersey Devils | 31 | 38 | 44.9% | – | – |
 Toronto Maple Leafs | 31 | 38 | 44.9% | – | – |
 Vancouver Canucks | 31 | 38 | 44.9% | – | – |
 Winnipeg Jets | 31 | 39 | 44.3% | – | – |
 Calgary Flames | 30 | 40 | 42.9% | – | – |
 Detroit Red Wings | 30 | 41 | 42.3% | – | – |
 Ottawa Senators | 27 | 44 | 38.0% | – | – |
First goal scorers, Mar 11
- STL @ ANAAdam HenriqueANA · P1 0:00
- SJS @ CHIEvander KaneSJS · P1 10:49 · 5v3
- WPG @ EDMTyler EnnisEDM · P2 0:09
- NYR @ COLMika ZibanejadNYR · P1 6:28
- OTT @ LAKBobby RyanOTT · P1 0:29
Against the market
The closing lines barely know who will score first, and neither does anyone else: over 2,616 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26, the market's implied chance of each team scoring first scored 0.2491 (Brier), against 0.2500 for a coin flip. Big favourites score first less often than their goal rates suggest.
We do not store first goal scorer prices, so this page makes no after-vig claim for that market. Testing it would need the books' first-goal-scorer odds for each game (the Odds API “player_goal_scorer_first” market, roughly one extra historical call per game). For anytime goals, where we do log every price, the books have beaten our model so far: see model vs market.
Tonight's chances for every skater are on the first goal scorer projections.
What first goal scorer counts measure
The first goal of a game, regulation or overtime (shootouts have no goal scorer), and who scored it. "Expected" is the player's goals times his team's share of goals that opened the scoring, about 16% league-wide: what an average scorer on that team would have. In 2023-24 to 2025-26, 83% of first goals came in the first period and 58% in the first ten minutes.
First goals are goals with a timestamp. Over 3,041 player seasons, the gap between first goals and that expectation had a season-to-season correlation of 0.01: there is no repeatable "first goal skill". Last season's goal rate predicts next season's first goals better (r = 0.56) than last season's first goals do (r = 0.39).
Price a first goal scorer bet from the player's goal share and his team's chance to score first, not from a first-goal count.
Frequently asked questions
Who has the most first goals in the NHL in 2019-20?
David Pastrnak has scored the first goal of 15 games this season through Mar 11, against 8.7 expected from his goals and his team's share of first goals.
Is scoring the first goal a skill?
Not one that repeats. Over 3,041 player seasons, first goals above or below a player's expected share correlated 0.01 from one season to the next. Goal scoring repeats; the timing does not.
How often does the team that scores first win in the NHL?
Teams that scored first won 67.3% of games in 2025-26, and between 65.7% and 68.1% in every season since 2017-18.
Does the market predict which team scores first?
Barely, and nothing does much better. Over 2,616 games, the closing lines' chance of each team scoring first (from the goal rates they imply) had a Brier score of 0.2491, against 0.2500 for a coin flip.