Betting research

NHL First Goal Scorer Stats 2021-22

Who scores the first goal of NHL games: every player's first goals this season against what his goal total would predict, each team's rate of scoring first against the market, and last night's first goal scorers.

Mika Zibanejad (NYR) leads NHL skaters with 11 first goals in 2021-22, 1 more than Dylan Larkin (DET).

Updated Oct 20, 6:06 PM ET after COL 2, TBL 1 (Jun 26)

Most first goals, 2021-22

Mika ZibanejadNYR114.8 expected · 29 G
Dylan LarkinDET104.8 expected · 31 G
Auston MatthewsTOR98.5 expected · 60 G
Johnny GaudreauCGY97.4 expected · 40 G
Mikko RantanenCOL96.1 expected · 36 G
Gabriel LandeskogCOL95.1 expected · 30 G
Filip ForsbergNSH86.9 expected · 42 G
Matthew TkachukCGY87.8 expected · 42 G
David PastrnakBOS87.8 expected · 40 G
Brock NelsonNYI87.3 expected · 37 G
Troy TerryANA86.8 expected · 37 G
Brandon HagelCHI,TBL84.1 expected · 25 G

Does first goal scoring repeat?

No, beyond plain goal scoring. Over 3,041 player seasons since 2017-18 (40+ games both seasons), a player's first goals above or below his expected share correlated 0.01 with the next season's. Last season's goal rate predicted next season's first goals at r = 0.56; last season's first goals did worse, at r = 0.39.

Teams are no different: a team's rate of scoring first against the market had a season-to-season correlation of −0.00 (32 teams, 2024-25 to 2025-26). In 2023-24 to 2025-26, 82.7% of first goals came in the first period, 57.7% in the first ten minutes and 19.9% on a power play (3,933 games).

First goal scorer leaders, 2021-22

Most first goals, NHL 2021-22: first goals, goals, expected first goals
#	Player	GP	Goals	First goals	Expected	Per 82 GP
1	Mika ZibanejadNYR · C	81	29	11	4.8	11.1
2	Dylan LarkinDET · C	71	31	10	4.8	11.5
3	Auston MatthewsTOR · C	73	60	9	8.5	10.1
4	Johnny GaudreauCGY · L	82	40	9	7.4	9.0
5	Mikko RantanenCOL · R	75	36	9	6.1	9.8
6	Gabriel LandeskogCOL · L	51	30	9	5.1	14.5
7	Filip ForsbergNSH · L	69	42	8	6.9	9.5
8	Matthew TkachukCGY · L	82	42	8	7.8	8.0
9	David PastrnakBOS · R	72	40	8	7.8	9.1
10	Brock NelsonNYI · C	72	37	8	7.3	9.1
11	Troy TerryANA · R	75	37	8	6.8	8.7
12	Brandon HagelCHI,TBL · L	77	25	8	4.1	8.5
13	Kyle OkposoBUF · R	74	21	8	3.8	8.9
14	Claude GirouxFLA,PHI · R	75	21	8	3.6	8.7
15	Chris KreiderNYR · L	81	52	7	8.5	7.1
16	Roope HintzDAL · C	80	37	7	7.0	7.2
17	William NylanderTOR · R	81	34	7	4.8	7.1
18	Brad MarchandBOS · L	70	32	7	6.2	8.2
19	Pavel BuchnevichSTL · L	73	30	7	4.1	7.9
20	Jack HughesNJD · C	49	26	7	4.0	11.7
21	Leon DraisaitlEDM · C	80	55	6	6.4	6.1
22	Alex OvechkinWSH · L	77	50	6	9.6	6.4
23	Kyle ConnorWPG · L	79	47	6	7.5	6.2
24	Kirill KaprizovMIN · L	81	47	6	6.9	6.1
25	Tage ThompsonBUF · C	78	38	6	6.8	6.3

First goal of the game in regulation or overtime; shootouts have no goal scorer. Regular season. Players traded mid-season show every club.

More first goal scorers, 2021-22

Sebastian Aho CAR6 (6.5 exp)
Adrian Kempe LAK6 (6.0 exp)
Josh Norris OTT6 (5.9 exp)
Kevin Fiala MIN6 (4.9 exp)
J.T. Miller VAN6 (5.1 exp)
Jonathan Huberdeau FLA6 (3.9 exp)
Tomas Hertl SJS6 (5.4 exp)
Anders Lee NYI6 (5.5 exp)
Oliver Bjorkstrand CBJ6 (3.8 exp)
Pierre-Luc Dubois WPG6 (4.5 exp)
Joe Pavelski DAL6 (5.1 exp)
Jesper Bratt NJD6 (4.0 exp)
Valeri Nichushkin COL6 (4.2 exp)
Evgeny Kuznetsov WSH6 (4.6 exp)
Nino Niederreiter CAR6 (4.3 exp)
Tom Wilson WSH6 (4.6 exp)
Brock Boeser VAN6 (3.6 exp)
Chandler Stephenson VGK6 (3.6 exp)
Nick Suzuki MTL6 (2.9 exp)
Dillon Dube CGY6 (3.3 exp)
Steven Stamkos TBL5 (5.8 exp)
Elias Lindholm CGY5 (7.8 exp)
Alex DeBrincat CHI5 (6.9 exp)
Jason Robertson DAL5 (7.7 exp)
Jake Guentzel PIT5 (6.4 exp)

Teams scoring first, 2021-22

NHL teams scoring first 2021-22: rate and the market's expectation
Team	Scored first	Allowed first	Rate	Market	Actual (same games)
Calgary Flames	54	28	65.9%	–	–
Colorado Avalanche	52	30	63.4%	–	–
Washington Capitals	52	30	63.4%	–	–
Boston Bruins	49	33	59.8%	–	–
Carolina Hurricanes	49	33	59.8%	–	–
Minnesota Wild	45	37	54.9%	–	–
New York Islanders	45	37	54.9%	–	–
Vegas Golden Knights	45	37	54.9%	–	–
Dallas Stars	44	37	54.3%	–	–
Florida Panthers	44	38	53.7%	–	–
Toronto Maple Leafs	44	38	53.7%	–	–
Nashville Predators	43	39	52.4%	–	–
Pittsburgh Penguins	43	39	52.4%	–	–
Anaheim Ducks	42	40	51.2%	–	–
St. Louis Blues	42	40	51.2%	–	–
Buffalo Sabres	41	41	50.0%	–	–
New York Rangers	41	41	50.0%	–	–
Los Angeles Kings	40	42	48.8%	–	–
Winnipeg Jets	40	42	48.8%	–	–
Tampa Bay Lightning	39	43	47.6%	–	–
Vancouver Canucks	39	43	47.6%	–	–
New Jersey Devils	38	44	46.3%	–	–
Ottawa Senators	38	44	46.3%	–	–
San Jose Sharks	38	44	46.3%	–	–
Philadelphia Flyers	37	45	45.1%	–	–
Chicago Blackhawks	36	45	44.4%	–	–
Columbus Blue Jackets	35	47	42.7%	–	–
Detroit Red Wings	35	47	42.7%	–	–
Edmonton Oilers	33	49	40.2%	–	–
Seattle Kraken	31	51	37.8%	–	–
Montreal Canadiens	30	52	36.6%	–	–
Arizona Coyotes	27	55	32.9%	–	–

First goal scorers, May 1

SEA @ WPGMorgan BarronWPG · P1 3:47

Against the market

The closing lines barely know who will score first, and neither does anyone else: over 2,616 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26, the market's implied chance of each team scoring first scored 0.2491 (Brier), against 0.2500 for a coin flip. Big favourites score first less often than their goal rates suggest.

We do not store first goal scorer prices, so this page makes no after-vig claim for that market. Testing it would need the books' first-goal-scorer odds for each game (the Odds API “player_goal_scorer_first” market, roughly one extra historical call per game). For anytime goals, where we do log every price, the books have beaten our model so far: see model vs market.

Tonight's chances for every skater are on the first goal scorer projections.

What first goal scorer counts measure

The first goal of a game, regulation or overtime (shootouts have no goal scorer), and who scored it. "Expected" is the player's goals times his team's share of goals that opened the scoring, about 16% league-wide: what an average scorer on that team would have. In 2023-24 to 2025-26, 83% of first goals came in the first period and 58% in the first ten minutes.

First goals are goals with a timestamp. Over 3,041 player seasons, the gap between first goals and that expectation had a season-to-season correlation of 0.01: there is no repeatable "first goal skill". Last season's goal rate predicts next season's first goals better (r = 0.56) than last season's first goals do (r = 0.39).

Price a first goal scorer bet from the player's goal share and his team's chance to score first, not from a first-goal count.

Frequently asked questions

Who has the most first goals in the NHL in 2021-22?

Mika Zibanejad has scored the first goal of 11 games this season through Jun 26, against 4.8 expected from his goals and his team's share of first goals.

Is scoring the first goal a skill?

Not one that repeats. Over 3,041 player seasons, first goals above or below a player's expected share correlated 0.01 from one season to the next. Goal scoring repeats; the timing does not.

How often does the team that scores first win in the NHL?

Teams that scored first won 67.3% of games in 2025-26, and between 65.7% and 68.1% in every season since 2017-18.

Does the market predict which team scores first?

Barely, and nothing does much better. Over 2,616 games, the closing lines' chance of each team scoring first (from the goal rates they imply) had a Brier score of 0.2491, against 0.2500 for a coin flip.