Betting research

NHL First Goal Scorer Stats 2022-23

Who scores the first goal of NHL games: every player's first goals this season against what his goal total would predict, each team's rate of scoring first against the market, and last night's first goal scorers.

Mikko Rantanen (COL) leads NHL skaters with 11 first goals in 2022-23, 1 more than the next 5.

Updated Oct 20, 6:05 PM ET after FLA 3, VGK 9 (Jun 13)

Most first goals, 2022-23

Mikko RantanenCOL1110.6 expected · 55 G
David PastrnakBOS109.5 expected · 61 G
Mark ScheifeleWPG107.3 expected · 42 G
Mika ZibanejadNYR106.1 expected · 39 G
Roope HintzDAL106.7 expected · 37 G
Dylan LarkinDET105.7 expected · 32 G
Brayden PointTBL97.8 expected · 51 G
Jack HughesNJD96.0 expected · 43 G
Alex OvechkinWSH96.1 expected · 42 G
Nathan MacKinnonCOL98.1 expected · 42 G
Auston MatthewsTOR96.6 expected · 40 G
John TavaresTOR96.0 expected · 36 G

Does first goal scoring repeat?

No, beyond plain goal scoring. Over 3,041 player seasons since 2017-18 (40+ games both seasons), a player's first goals above or below his expected share correlated 0.01 with the next season's. Last season's goal rate predicted next season's first goals at r = 0.56; last season's first goals did worse, at r = 0.39.

Teams are no different: a team's rate of scoring first against the market had a season-to-season correlation of −0.00 (32 teams, 2024-25 to 2025-26). In 2023-24 to 2025-26, 82.7% of first goals came in the first period, 57.7% in the first ten minutes and 19.9% on a power play (3,933 games).

First goal scorer leaders, 2022-23

Most first goals, NHL 2022-23: first goals, goals, expected first goals
#	Player	GP	Goals	First goals	Expected	Per 82 GP
1	Mikko RantanenCOL · R	82	55	11	10.6	11.0
2	David PastrnakBOS · R	82	61	10	9.5	10.0
3	Mark ScheifeleWPG · C	81	42	10	7.3	10.1
4	Mika ZibanejadNYR · C	82	39	10	6.1	10.0
5	Roope HintzDAL · C	73	37	10	6.7	11.2
6	Dylan LarkinDET · C	80	32	10	5.7	10.3
7	Brayden PointTBL · C	82	51	9	7.8	9.0
8	Jack HughesNJD · C	78	43	9	6.0	9.5
9	Alex OvechkinWSH · L	73	42	9	6.1	10.1
10	Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C	71	42	9	8.1	10.4
11	Auston MatthewsTOR · C	74	40	9	6.6	10.0
12	John TavaresTOR · C	80	36	9	6.0	9.2
13	Connor McDavidEDM · C	82	64	8	8.7	8.0
14	Jason RobertsonDAL · L	82	46	8	8.3	8.0
15	Jared McCannSEA · L	79	40	8	5.8	8.3
16	Kirill KaprizovMIN · L	67	40	8	7.0	9.8
17	Chris KreiderNYR · L	79	36	8	5.7	8.3
18	Sidney CrosbyPIT · C	82	33	8	5.2	8.0
19	Anders LeeNYI · L	82	28	8	5.0	8.0
20	Troy TerryANA · R	70	23	8	2.8	9.4
21	Tage ThompsonBUF · C	78	47	7	6.3	7.4
22	Matthew TkachukFLA · L	79	40	7	6.1	7.3
23	Andrei KuzmenkoVAN · L	81	39	7	5.9	7.1
24	Zach HymanEDM · L	79	36	7	4.9	7.3
25	Sebastian AhoCAR · C	75	36	7	6.7	7.7

First goal of the game in regulation or overtime; shootouts have no goal scorer. Regular season. Players traded mid-season show every club.

More first goal scorers, 2022-23

Brady Tkachuk OTT7 (4.9 exp)
Steven Stamkos TBL7 (5.2 exp)
Dylan Cozens BUF7 (4.1 exp)
Pavel Buchnevich STL7 (4.2 exp)
Carter Verhaeghe FLA6 (6.4 exp)
Elias Pettersson VAN6 (5.9 exp)
Bo Horvat NYI,VAN6 (6.0 exp)
Jeff Skinner BUF6 (4.7 exp)
Kyle Connor WPG6 (5.4 exp)
Rickard Rakell PIT6 (4.4 exp)
Jason Zucker PIT6 (4.2 exp)
Jack Eichel VGK6 (4.7 exp)
Jake DeBrusk BOS6 (4.2 exp)
Pierre-Luc Dubois WPG6 (4.7 exp)
Andrei Svechnikov CAR6 (4.3 exp)
Dougie Hamilton NJD6 (3.0 exp)
Shane Pinto OTT6 (2.8 exp)
Mikael Backlund CGY6 (3.1 exp)
Brent Burns CAR6 (3.4 exp)
Alexander Barabanov SJS6 (2.8 exp)
Cody Glass NSH6 (2.9 exp)
Stefan Noesen CAR6 (2.4 exp)
Leon Draisaitl EDM5 (7.0 exp)
Adrian Kempe LAK5 (6.1 exp)
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins EDM5 (5.0 exp)

Teams scoring first, 2022-23

NHL teams scoring first 2022-23: rate and the market's expectation
Team	Scored first	Allowed first	Rate	Market	Actual (same games)
Colorado Avalanche	53	28	65.4%	–	–
Dallas Stars	51	31	62.2%	–	–
Carolina Hurricanes	49	33	59.8%	–	–
Boston Bruins	47	35	57.3%	–	–
Nashville Predators	46	36	56.1%	–	–
Toronto Maple Leafs	46	36	56.1%	–	–
Vegas Golden Knights	46	36	56.1%	–	–
Edmonton Oilers	44	38	53.7%	–	–
Florida Panthers	44	38	53.7%	–	–
New York Islanders	43	38	53.1%	–	–
Tampa Bay Lightning	43	38	53.1%	–	–
New York Rangers	43	39	52.4%	–	–
San Jose Sharks	43	39	52.4%	–	–
Winnipeg Jets	43	39	52.4%	–	–
Calgary Flames	42	39	51.9%	–	–
Minnesota Wild	42	39	51.9%	–	–
Detroit Red Wings	42	40	51.2%	–	–
Seattle Kraken	42	40	51.2%	–	–
St. Louis Blues	42	40	51.2%	–	–
Los Angeles Kings	41	41	50.0%	–	–
Pittsburgh Penguins	41	41	50.0%	–	–
Vancouver Canucks	41	41	50.0%	–	–
New Jersey Devils	40	42	48.8%	–	–
Buffalo Sabres	39	43	47.6%	–	–
Washington Capitals	37	45	45.1%	–	–
Ottawa Senators	36	46	43.9%	–	–
Montreal Canadiens	34	48	41.5%	–	–
Arizona Coyotes	32	49	39.5%	–	–
Philadelphia Flyers	32	50	39.0%	–	–
Chicago Blackhawks	31	51	37.8%	–	–
Columbus Blue Jackets	29	53	35.4%	–	–
Anaheim Ducks	25	57	30.5%	–	–

First goal scorers, Apr 14

COL @ NSHDevon ToewsCOL · P1 0:28
BUF @ CBJJohnny GaudreauCBJ · P1 0:34

Against the market

The closing lines barely know who will score first, and neither does anyone else: over 2,616 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26, the market's implied chance of each team scoring first scored 0.2491 (Brier), against 0.2500 for a coin flip. Big favourites score first less often than their goal rates suggest.

We do not store first goal scorer prices, so this page makes no after-vig claim for that market. Testing it would need the books' first-goal-scorer odds for each game (the Odds API “player_goal_scorer_first” market, roughly one extra historical call per game). For anytime goals, where we do log every price, the books have beaten our model so far: see model vs market.

Tonight's chances for every skater are on the first goal scorer projections.

What first goal scorer counts measure

The first goal of a game, regulation or overtime (shootouts have no goal scorer), and who scored it. "Expected" is the player's goals times his team's share of goals that opened the scoring, about 16% league-wide: what an average scorer on that team would have. In 2023-24 to 2025-26, 83% of first goals came in the first period and 58% in the first ten minutes.

First goals are goals with a timestamp. Over 3,041 player seasons, the gap between first goals and that expectation had a season-to-season correlation of 0.01: there is no repeatable "first goal skill". Last season's goal rate predicts next season's first goals better (r = 0.56) than last season's first goals do (r = 0.39).

Price a first goal scorer bet from the player's goal share and his team's chance to score first, not from a first-goal count.

Frequently asked questions

Who has the most first goals in the NHL in 2022-23?

Mikko Rantanen has scored the first goal of 11 games this season through Jun 13, against 10.6 expected from his goals and his team's share of first goals.

Is scoring the first goal a skill?

Not one that repeats. Over 3,041 player seasons, first goals above or below a player's expected share correlated 0.01 from one season to the next. Goal scoring repeats; the timing does not.

How often does the team that scores first win in the NHL?

Teams that scored first won 67.3% of games in 2025-26, and between 65.7% and 68.1% in every season since 2017-18.

Does the market predict which team scores first?

Barely, and nothing does much better. Over 2,616 games, the closing lines' chance of each team scoring first (from the goal rates they imply) had a Brier score of 0.2491, against 0.2500 for a coin flip.