Betting research
NHL First Goal Scorer Stats 2025-26
Who scores the first goal of NHL games: every player's first goals this season against what his goal total would predict, each team's rate of scoring first against the market, and last night's first goal scorers.
6 NHL skaters are tied for the lead with 9 first goals in 2025-26, 1 more than the next 7.
Most first goals, 2025-26
Cole CaufieldMTL98.4 expected · 51 G
Martin NecasCOL96.4 expected · 38 G
Adrian KempeLAK96.7 expected · 36 G
Tom WilsonWSH95.8 expected · 30 G
Juraj SlafkovskýMTL95.0 expected · 30 G
Jordan EberleSEA94.8 expected · 26 G
Wyatt JohnstonDAL86.9 expected · 45 G
Matt BoldyMIN87.0 expected · 42 G
Cutter GauthierANA85.1 expected · 41 G
Mika ZibanejadNYR85.2 expected · 34 G
Drake BathersonOTT84.8 expected · 33 G
Andrei SvechnikovCAR85.2 expected · 31 G
Does first goal scoring repeat?
No, beyond plain goal scoring. Over 3,041 player seasons since 2017-18 (40+ games both seasons), a player's first goals above or below his expected share correlated 0.01 with the next season's. Last season's goal rate predicted next season's first goals at r = 0.56; last season's first goals did worse, at r = 0.39.
Teams are no different: a team's rate of scoring first against the market had a season-to-season correlation of −0.00 (32 teams, 2024-25 to 2025-26). In 2023-24 to 2025-26, 82.7% of first goals came in the first period, 57.7% in the first ten minutes and 19.9% on a power play (3,933 games).
First goal scorer leaders, 2025-26
| # | Player | GP | Goals | First goals | Expected | Per 82 GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cole CaufieldMTL · R | 81 | 51 | 9 | 8.4 | 9.1 |
| 2 | Martin NecasCOL · C | 78 | 38 | 9 | 6.4 | 9.5 |
| 3 | Adrian KempeLAK · R | 81 | 36 | 9 | 6.7 | 9.1 |
| 4 | Tom WilsonWSH · R | 72 | 30 | 9 | 5.8 | 10.3 |
| 5 | Juraj SlafkovskýMTL · L | 82 | 30 | 9 | 5.0 | 9.0 |
| 6 | Jordan EberleSEA · R | 80 | 26 | 9 | 4.8 | 9.2 |
| 7 | Wyatt JohnstonDAL · C | 82 | 45 | 8 | 6.9 | 8.0 |
| 8 | Matt BoldyMIN · L | 76 | 42 | 8 | 7.0 | 8.6 |
| 9 | Cutter GauthierANA · L | 76 | 41 | 8 | 5.1 | 8.6 |
| 10 | Mika ZibanejadNYR · C | 81 | 34 | 8 | 5.2 | 8.1 |
| 11 | Drake BathersonOTT · R | 79 | 33 | 8 | 4.8 | 8.3 |
| 12 | Andrei SvechnikovCAR · R | 79 | 31 | 8 | 5.2 | 8.3 |
| 13 |  Timo MeierNJD · R | 77 | 24 | 8 | 3.6 | 8.5 |
| 14 |  Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C | 80 | 53 | 7 | 8.9 | 7.2 |
| 15 |  Connor McDavidEDM · C | 82 | 48 | 7 | 6.8 | 7.0 |
| 16 |  Alex DeBrincatDET · R | 82 | 41 | 7 | 6.2 | 7.0 |
| 17 |  Filip ForsbergNSH · L | 82 | 40 | 7 | 5.1 | 7.0 |
| 18 |  Dylan GuentherUTA · R | 79 | 40 | 7 | 6.6 | 7.3 |
| 19 |  Morgan GeekieBOS · C | 81 | 39 | 7 | 6.0 | 7.1 |
| 20 |  Brandon HagelTBL · L | 71 | 36 | 7 | 4.8 | 8.1 |
| 21 |  Nick SchmaltzUTA · C | 82 | 33 | 7 | 5.4 | 7.0 |
| 22 |  Sidney CrosbyPIT · C | 68 | 29 | 7 | 4.7 | 8.4 |
| 23 |  Owen TippettPHI · R | 81 | 28 | 7 | 3.7 | 7.1 |
| 24 |  Jack EichelVGK · C | 74 | 27 | 7 | 3.5 | 7.8 |
| 25 |  Nikolaj EhlersCAR · L | 82 | 26 | 7 | 4.4 | 7.0 |
First goal of the game in regulation or overtime; shootouts have no goal scorer. Regular season. Players traded mid-season show every club.
More first goal scorers, 2025-26
- Logan Cooley UTA7 (3.9 exp)
- Dylan Holloway STL7 (4.5 exp)
- Kirill Kaprizov MIN6 (7.6 exp)
- Jason Robertson DAL6 (6.9 exp)
- Macklin Celebrini SJS6 (6.9 exp)
- Steven Stamkos NSH6 (5.4 exp)
- Kyle Connor WPG6 (7.5 exp)
- Jake Guentzel TBL6 (5.0 exp)
- Anthony Mantha PIT6 (5.3 exp)
- Tyler Bertuzzi CHI6 (6.9 exp)
- Pavel Zacha BOS6 (4.6 exp)
- Connor Bedard CHI6 (6.4 exp)
- David Pastrnak BOS6 (4.4 exp)
- Artemi Panarin LAK,NYR6 (4.6 exp)
- Travis Konecny PHI6 (3.6 exp)
- Josh Doan BUF6 (3.9 exp)
- Jason Zucker BUF6 (3.7 exp)
- Vladimir Tarasenko MIN6 (3.9 exp)
- Zach Werenski CBJ6 (4.5 exp)
- Morgan Frost CGY6 (4.1 exp)
- Jimmy Snuggerud STL6 (4.3 exp)
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins EDM6 (2.8 exp)
- Cale Makar COL6 (3.4 exp)
- Mavrik Bourque DAL6 (3.1 exp)
- Tyler Toffoli SJS6 (2.9 exp)
Teams scoring first, 2025-26
| Team | Scored first | Allowed first | Rate | Market | Actual (same games) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Columbus Blue Jackets | 50 | 32 | 61.0% | 49.6% | 61.0% |
 Colorado Avalanche | 50 | 32 | 61.0% | 56.5% | 61.0% |
 Washington Capitals | 50 | 32 | 61.0% | 51.1% | 61.0% |
 Carolina Hurricanes | 49 | 33 | 59.8% | 54.7% | 59.8% |
 Pittsburgh Penguins | 47 | 35 | 57.3% | 49.0% | 57.3% |
 St. Louis Blues | 47 | 35 | 57.3% | 48.4% | 58.0% |
 Montreal Canadiens | 46 | 36 | 56.1% | 50.3% | 56.1% |
 Chicago Blackhawks | 45 | 37 | 54.9% | 44.8% | 54.3% |
 Minnesota Wild | 45 | 37 | 54.9% | 51.2% | 54.9% |
 Buffalo Sabres | 44 | 38 | 53.7% | 49.9% | 53.7% |
 Utah Mammoth | 44 | 38 | 53.7% | 51.7% | 53.7% |
 Winnipeg Jets | 44 | 38 | 53.7% | 50.2% | 53.1% |
 New York Islanders | 43 | 38 | 53.1% | 49.5% | 52.5% |
 Dallas Stars | 42 | 40 | 51.2% | 53.0% | 51.2% |
 Seattle Kraken | 41 | 40 | 50.6% | 46.6% | 50.6% |
 Boston Bruins | 41 | 41 | 50.0% | 48.1% | 50.6% |
 Florida Panthers | 41 | 41 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 50.6% |
 Los Angeles Kings | 41 | 41 | 50.0% | 51.4% | 50.6% |
 Edmonton Oilers | 40 | 42 | 48.8% | 52.7% | 48.8% |
 Ottawa Senators | 40 | 42 | 48.8% | 51.8% | 48.8% |
 Calgary Flames | 39 | 43 | 47.6% | 47.1% | 46.9% |
 San Jose Sharks | 38 | 44 | 46.3% | 45.7% | 46.3% |
 Tampa Bay Lightning | 38 | 44 | 46.3% | 53.8% | 46.9% |
 Toronto Maple Leafs | 38 | 44 | 46.3% | 48.7% | 46.3% |
 Detroit Red Wings | 36 | 46 | 43.9% | 49.8% | 43.2% |
 New York Rangers | 36 | 46 | 43.9% | 49.2% | 43.8% |
 New Jersey Devils | 34 | 48 | 41.5% | 50.3% | 41.5% |
 Vegas Golden Knights | 34 | 48 | 41.5% | 53.4% | 41.5% |
 Anaheim Ducks | 33 | 49 | 40.2% | 49.4% | 40.2% |
 Philadelphia Flyers | 32 | 50 | 39.0% | 48.0% | 39.0% |
 Vancouver Canucks | 32 | 50 | 39.0% | 45.6% | 39.0% |
 Nashville Predators | 31 | 51 | 37.8% | 47.9% | 37.8% |
First goal scorers, Apr 16
- ANA @ NSHCutter GauthierANA · P1 1:36
- SJS @ WPGCole KoepkeWPG · P1 3:28
- STL @ UTAPavel BuchnevichSTL · P1 3:45
- LAK @ CGYMorgan FrostCGY · P2 5:21 · 5v4
- VAN @ EDMJosh SamanskiEDM · P1 1:58
- SEA @ COLNick BlankenburgCOL · P2 17:38
Against the market
The closing lines barely know who will score first, and neither does anyone else: over 2,616 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26, the market's implied chance of each team scoring first scored 0.2491 (Brier), against 0.2500 for a coin flip. Big favourites score first less often than their goal rates suggest.
We do not store first goal scorer prices, so this page makes no after-vig claim for that market. Testing it would need the books' first-goal-scorer odds for each game (the Odds API “player_goal_scorer_first” market, roughly one extra historical call per game). For anytime goals, where we do log every price, the books have beaten our model so far: see model vs market.
Tonight's chances for every skater are on the first goal scorer projections.
What first goal scorer counts measure
The first goal of a game, regulation or overtime (shootouts have no goal scorer), and who scored it. "Expected" is the player's goals times his team's share of goals that opened the scoring, about 16% league-wide: what an average scorer on that team would have. In 2023-24 to 2025-26, 83% of first goals came in the first period and 58% in the first ten minutes.
First goals are goals with a timestamp. Over 3,041 player seasons, the gap between first goals and that expectation had a season-to-season correlation of 0.01: there is no repeatable "first goal skill". Last season's goal rate predicts next season's first goals better (r = 0.56) than last season's first goals do (r = 0.39).
Price a first goal scorer bet from the player's goal share and his team's chance to score first, not from a first-goal count.
Frequently asked questions
Who has the most first goals in the NHL in 2025-26?
Cole Caufield has scored the first goal of 9 games this season through Jun 14, against 8.4 expected from his goals and his team's share of first goals.
Is scoring the first goal a skill?
Not one that repeats. Over 3,041 player seasons, first goals above or below a player's expected share correlated 0.01 from one season to the next. Goal scoring repeats; the timing does not.
How often does the team that scores first win in the NHL?
Teams that scored first won 67.3% of games in 2025-26, and between 65.7% and 68.1% in every season since 2017-18.
Does the market predict which team scores first?
Barely, and nothing does much better. Over 2,616 games, the closing lines' chance of each team scoring first (from the goal rates they imply) had a Brier score of 0.2491, against 0.2500 for a coin flip.