Betting research
NHL First Goal Scorer Stats 2024-25
Who scores the first goal of NHL games: every player's first goals this season against what his goal total would predict, each team's rate of scoring first against the market, and last night's first goal scorers.
Leon Draisaitl (EDM) leads NHL skaters with 12 first goals in 2024-25, 1 more than Tage Thompson (BUF).
Most first goals, 2024-25
Leon DraisaitlEDM128.6 expected · 52 G
Tage ThompsonBUF117.5 expected · 44 G
Alex DeBrincatDET106.6 expected · 39 G
Nikita KucherovTBL106.2 expected · 37 G
Adrian KempeLAK96.8 expected · 35 G
Brayden PointTBL87.0 expected · 42 G
Sam ReinhartFLA86.8 expected · 39 G
Jonathan HuberdeauCGY85.3 expected · 28 G
Marco RossiMIN84.8 expected · 24 G
Troy TerryANA83.8 expected · 21 G
Adam GaudetteOTT83.2 expected · 19 G
Artemi PanarinNYR75.4 expected · 37 G
Does first goal scoring repeat?
No, beyond plain goal scoring. Over 3,041 player seasons since 2017-18 (40+ games both seasons), a player's first goals above or below his expected share correlated 0.01 with the next season's. Last season's goal rate predicted next season's first goals at r = 0.56; last season's first goals did worse, at r = 0.39.
Teams are no different: a team's rate of scoring first against the market had a season-to-season correlation of −0.00 (32 teams, 2024-25 to 2025-26). In 2023-24 to 2025-26, 82.7% of first goals came in the first period, 57.7% in the first ten minutes and 19.9% on a power play (3,933 games).
First goal scorer leaders, 2024-25
| # | Player | GP | Goals | First goals | Expected | Per 82 GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leon DraisaitlEDM · C | 71 | 52 | 12 | 8.6 | 13.9 |
| 2 | Tage ThompsonBUF · C | 76 | 44 | 11 | 7.5 | 11.9 |
| 3 | Alex DeBrincatDET · R | 82 | 39 | 10 | 6.6 | 10.0 |
| 4 | Nikita KucherovTBL · R | 78 | 37 | 10 | 6.2 | 10.5 |
| 5 | Adrian KempeLAK · R | 81 | 35 | 9 | 6.8 | 9.1 |
| 6 | Brayden PointTBL · C | 77 | 42 | 8 | 7.0 | 8.5 |
| 7 | Sam ReinhartFLA · C | 79 | 39 | 8 | 6.8 | 8.3 |
| 8 | Jonathan HuberdeauCGY · L | 81 | 28 | 8 | 5.3 | 8.1 |
| 9 | Marco RossiMIN · C | 82 | 24 | 8 | 4.8 | 8.0 |
| 10 | Troy TerryANA · R | 77 | 21 | 8 | 3.8 | 8.5 |
| 11 | Adam GaudetteOTT · R | 81 | 19 | 8 | 3.2 | 8.1 |
| 12 | Artemi PanarinNYR · L | 80 | 37 | 7 | 5.4 | 7.2 |
| 13 |  Nico HischierNJD · C | 75 | 35 | 7 | 5.8 | 7.7 |
| 14 |  Wyatt JohnstonDAL · C | 82 | 33 | 7 | 5.5 | 7.0 |
| 15 |  Tyler ToffoliSJS · C | 78 | 30 | 7 | 5.2 | 7.4 |
| 16 |  Steven StamkosNSH · C | 82 | 27 | 7 | 4.6 | 7.0 |
| 17 |  Artturi LehkonenCOL · L | 69 | 27 | 7 | 4.3 | 8.3 |
| 18 |  Dylan GuentherUTA · R | 70 | 27 | 7 | 4.7 | 8.2 |
| 19 |  Brayden SchennSTL · C | 82 | 18 | 7 | 3.0 | 7.0 |
| 20 |  Alexis LafrenièreNYR · L | 82 | 17 | 7 | 2.5 | 7.0 |
| 21 |  Quinn HughesVAN · D | 68 | 16 | 7 | 3.0 | 8.4 |
| 22 |  Alex OvechkinWSH · L | 65 | 44 | 6 | 6.5 | 7.6 |
| 23 |  Kyle ConnorWPG · L | 82 | 41 | 6 | 6.1 | 6.0 |
| 24 |  John TavaresTOR · C | 75 | 38 | 6 | 6.3 | 6.6 |
| 25 |  Alex TuchBUF · R | 82 | 36 | 6 | 6.1 | 6.0 |
First goal of the game in regulation or overtime; shootouts have no goal scorer. Regular season. Players traded mid-season show every club.
More first goal scorers, 2024-25
- Kevin Fiala LAK6 (6.8 exp)
- Brandon Hagel TBL6 (5.9 exp)
- Jason Robertson DAL6 (5.8 exp)
- Sidney Crosby PIT6 (4.5 exp)
- Tomas Hertl VGK6 (5.1 exp)
- Filip Forsberg NSH6 (5.3 exp)
- Dylan Larkin DET6 (5.1 exp)
- Jack Eichel VGK6 (4.5 exp)
- Jake DeBrusk VAN6 (5.3 exp)
- Jack Hughes NJD6 (4.5 exp)
- Matvei Michkov PHI6 (4.8 exp)
- Tyson Foerster PHI6 (4.6 exp)
- Matt Coronato CGY6 (4.6 exp)
- Dmitri Voronkov CBJ6 (3.7 exp)
- Connor Bedard CHI6 (4.2 exp)
- Shane Pinto OTT6 (3.6 exp)
- Simon Holmstrom NYI6 (2.7 exp)
- Mats Zuccarello MIN6 (3.8 exp)
- Jonatan Berggren DET6 (2.0 exp)
- David Pastrnak BOS5 (7.4 exp)
- Jake Guentzel TBL5 (6.9 exp)
- Mark Scheifele WPG5 (5.8 exp)
- Jordan Kyrou STL5 (5.9 exp)
- Pavel Dorofeyev VGK5 (5.6 exp)
- Auston Matthews TOR5 (5.4 exp)
Teams scoring first, 2024-25
| Team | Scored first | Allowed first | Rate | Market | Actual (same games) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Lightning | 49 | 33 | 59.8% | 53.6% | 59.8% |
 Los Angeles Kings | 48 | 34 | 58.5% | 52.6% | 58.5% |
 Dallas Stars | 46 | 36 | 56.1% | 54.7% | 56.1% |
 Buffalo Sabres | 45 | 37 | 54.9% | 47.9% | 54.9% |
 Minnesota Wild | 45 | 37 | 54.9% | 50.0% | 54.9% |
 Colorado Avalanche | 44 | 38 | 53.7% | 54.4% | 53.7% |
 Toronto Maple Leafs | 44 | 38 | 53.7% | 52.5% | 53.7% |
 Vancouver Canucks | 44 | 38 | 53.7% | 50.1% | 53.7% |
 Vegas Golden Knights | 44 | 38 | 53.7% | 53.9% | 53.7% |
 Columbus Blue Jackets | 43 | 38 | 53.1% | 46.3% | 53.1% |
 Edmonton Oilers | 43 | 39 | 52.4% | 54.6% | 52.4% |
 Florida Panthers | 43 | 39 | 52.4% | 54.5% | 52.4% |
 Philadelphia Flyers | 43 | 39 | 52.4% | 47.3% | 52.4% |
 Calgary Flames | 42 | 40 | 51.2% | 47.9% | 51.2% |
 Utah Mammoth | 42 | 40 | 51.2% | 50.0% | 51.2% |
 Washington Capitals | 42 | 40 | 51.2% | 51.8% | 51.2% |
 Chicago Blackhawks | 41 | 41 | 50.0% | 42.6% | 50.0% |
 Ottawa Senators | 41 | 41 | 50.0% | 50.8% | 50.0% |
 St. Louis Blues | 41 | 41 | 50.0% | 48.5% | 50.0% |
 Winnipeg Jets | 41 | 41 | 50.0% | 53.5% | 50.0% |
 Detroit Red Wings | 40 | 42 | 48.8% | 47.2% | 48.8% |
 New Jersey Devils | 40 | 42 | 48.8% | 53.5% | 48.8% |
 Anaheim Ducks | 39 | 43 | 47.6% | 43.6% | 47.6% |
 Carolina Hurricanes | 39 | 43 | 47.6% | 56.0% | 47.6% |
 Boston Bruins | 38 | 44 | 46.3% | 48.9% | 46.3% |
 New York Rangers | 37 | 44 | 45.7% | 51.6% | 45.7% |
 Montreal Canadiens | 37 | 45 | 45.1% | 46.1% | 45.1% |
 Nashville Predators | 36 | 46 | 43.9% | 50.1% | 43.9% |
 San Jose Sharks | 36 | 46 | 43.9% | 41.4% | 43.9% |
 Seattle Kraken | 35 | 47 | 42.7% | 47.6% | 42.7% |
 Pittsburgh Penguins | 33 | 49 | 40.2% | 47.3% | 40.2% |
 New York Islanders | 30 | 52 | 36.6% | 49.3% | 36.6% |
First goal scorers, Apr 17
- CGY @ LAKNazem KadriCGY · P2 2:15
- PHI @ BUFAlex TuchBUF · P1 4:35
- DET @ TORAuston MatthewsTOR · P1 17:53
- CAR @ OTTAdam GaudetteOTT · P1 11:55
- TBL @ NYRVincent TrocheckNYR · P2 1:02 · 4v5
- WSH @ PITConnor McMichaelWSH · P1 4:08
- NYI @ CBJCole SillingerCBJ · P2 2:21
Against the market
The closing lines barely know who will score first, and neither does anyone else: over 2,616 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26, the market's implied chance of each team scoring first scored 0.2491 (Brier), against 0.2500 for a coin flip. Big favourites score first less often than their goal rates suggest.
We do not store first goal scorer prices, so this page makes no after-vig claim for that market. Testing it would need the books' first-goal-scorer odds for each game (the Odds API “player_goal_scorer_first” market, roughly one extra historical call per game). For anytime goals, where we do log every price, the books have beaten our model so far: see model vs market.
Tonight's chances for every skater are on the first goal scorer projections.
What first goal scorer counts measure
The first goal of a game, regulation or overtime (shootouts have no goal scorer), and who scored it. "Expected" is the player's goals times his team's share of goals that opened the scoring, about 16% league-wide: what an average scorer on that team would have. In 2023-24 to 2025-26, 83% of first goals came in the first period and 58% in the first ten minutes.
First goals are goals with a timestamp. Over 3,041 player seasons, the gap between first goals and that expectation had a season-to-season correlation of 0.01: there is no repeatable "first goal skill". Last season's goal rate predicts next season's first goals better (r = 0.56) than last season's first goals do (r = 0.39).
Price a first goal scorer bet from the player's goal share and his team's chance to score first, not from a first-goal count.
Frequently asked questions
Who has the most first goals in the NHL in 2024-25?
Leon Draisaitl has scored the first goal of 12 games this season through Jun 17, against 8.6 expected from his goals and his team's share of first goals.
Is scoring the first goal a skill?
Not one that repeats. Over 3,041 player seasons, first goals above or below a player's expected share correlated 0.01 from one season to the next. Goal scoring repeats; the timing does not.
How often does the team that scores first win in the NHL?
Teams that scored first won 67.3% of games in 2025-26, and between 65.7% and 68.1% in every season since 2017-18.
Does the market predict which team scores first?
Barely, and nothing does much better. Over 2,616 games, the closing lines' chance of each team scoring first (from the goal rates they imply) had a Brier score of 0.2491, against 0.2500 for a coin flip.