Betting research
NHL Puck Line Records 2025-26
Every NHL team against the puck line: covers as the favourite at −1.5 and as the underdog at +1.5, at home and on the road, with what the closing prices expected and the units a flat bettor would have made.
Boston Bruins leads NHL teams with a puck-line cover rate of 66.7% in 2025-26 (80-82 games with a line each), 3.3 points better than Philadelphia Flyers.
Best and worst puck-line cover rates, 2025-26
Boston Bruins66.7%54-27 · +13.3 vs mkt
Philadelphia Flyers63.4%52-30 · +8.6 vs mkt
Chicago Blackhawks59.3%48-33 · +0.9 vs mkt
Seattle Kraken58.5%48-34 · +0.5 vs mkt
St. Louis Blues58.0%47-34 · +4.1 vs mkt
Buffalo Sabres57.3%47-35 · +8.5 vs mkt
Los Angeles Kings35.8%29-52 · −10.3 vs mkt
Dallas Stars37.8%31-51 · −5.3 vs mkt
Florida Panthers38.3%31-50 · −9.2 vs mkt
New Jersey Devils39.0%32-50 · −8.2 vs mkt
Vegas Golden Knights40.2%33-49 · −3.5 vs mkt
Carolina Hurricanes40.2%33-49 · −3.2 vs mkt
Do puck line records repeat?
How far each team's puck-line record ran ahead of or behind the market barely repeats. Odd games against even games within a season: r = 0.00 (2024-25) and 0.08 (2025-26). One season to the next: r = −0.17 across 32 teams. The spread between teams (SD 5.3 pts and 6.1 pts) is about what chance alone produces (5.1 pts; 95th percentile 6.3 pts).
Betting every 2025-26 game of the 10 teams with the best 2024-25 puck-line records returned −8.7% (816 bets); the 10 worst returned −3.4% (816).
So a team at the top of this table has mostly been lucky against prices that were already right. The sample is 2,618 regular-season games with closing lines from 11 US sportsbooks (2024-25 and 2025-26).
Every team, 2025-26
| # | Team | Lines | Cover-fail | Cover % | Market | vs mkt | Units | Home | Away | Favourite | Underdog |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boston Bruins | 81 | 54-27 | 66.7% | 53.3% | +13.3 | +17.5u | 27-13 | 27-14 | 12-16 | 42-11 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Flyers | 82 | 52-30 | 63.4% | 54.8% | +8.6 | +10.2u | 23-18 | 29-12 | 10-13 | 42-17 |
| 3 | Chicago Blackhawks | 81 | 48-33 | 59.3% | 58.3% | +0.9 | −2.8u | 25-16 | 23-17 | 0-4 | 48-29 |
| 4 | Seattle Kraken | 82 | 48-34 | 58.5% | 58.0% | +0.5 | −1.5u | 25-16 | 23-18 | 6-6 | 42-28 |
| 5 | St. Louis Blues | 81 | 47-34 | 58.0% | 53.9% | +4.1 | −1.9u | 21-20 | 26-14 | 7-20 | 40-14 |
| 6 | Buffalo Sabres | 82 | 47-35 | 57.3% | 48.8% | +8.5 | +12.8u | 21-20 | 26-15 | 18-24 | 29-11 |
| 7 |  Pittsburgh Penguins | 82 | 47-35 | 57.3% | 50.9% | +6.4 | +6.8u | 19-22 | 28-13 | 13-21 | 34-14 |
| 8 |  San Jose Sharks | 82 | 47-35 | 57.3% | 54.6% | +2.7 | −2.2u | 25-16 | 22-19 | 4-10 | 43-25 |
| 9 |  Calgary Flames | 81 | 46-35 | 56.8% | 57.9% | −1.1 | −2.7u | 28-12 | 18-23 | 7-7 | 39-28 |
| 10 |  Nashville Predators | 82 | 46-36 | 56.1% | 54.5% | +1.6 | −3.4u | 21-20 | 25-16 | 7-17 | 39-19 |
| 11 |  Montreal Canadiens | 82 | 45-37 | 54.9% | 49.9% | +5.0 | −3.7u | 17-24 | 28-13 | 10-32 | 35-5 |
| 12 |  New York Rangers | 80 | 42-38 | 52.5% | 54.0% | −1.5 | −7.5u | 19-22 | 23-16 | 8-21 | 34-17 |
| 13 |  Washington Capitals | 82 | 43-39 | 52.4% | 46.1% | +6.4 | +9.4u | 21-20 | 22-19 | 23-30 | 20-9 |
| 14 |  Detroit Red Wings | 81 | 42-39 | 51.9% | 50.2% | +1.6 | −6.2u | 17-23 | 25-16 | 13-29 | 29-10 |
| 15 |  Colorado Avalanche | 82 | 42-40 | 51.2% | 43.3% | +7.9 | +11.0u | 21-20 | 21-20 | 41-40 | 1-0 |
| 16 |  New York Islanders | 81 | 41-40 | 50.6% | 51.7% | −1.1 | −13.3u | 17-23 | 24-17 | 7-29 | 34-11 |
| 17 |  Columbus Blue Jackets | 82 | 41-41 | 50.0% | 51.9% | −1.9 | −9.6u | 17-24 | 24-17 | 12-26 | 29-15 |
| 18 |  Minnesota Wild | 82 | 41-41 | 50.0% | 49.1% | +0.9 | −5.6u | 19-22 | 22-19 | 15-34 | 26-7 |
| 19 |  Ottawa Senators | 82 | 40-42 | 48.8% | 44.6% | +4.2 | +1.9u | 18-23 | 22-19 | 23-36 | 17-6 |
| 20 |  Tampa Bay Lightning | 81 | 38-43 | 46.9% | 42.6% | +4.3 | +3.2u | 16-25 | 22-18 | 28-42 | 10-1 |
| 21 |  Winnipeg Jets | 81 | 38-43 | 46.9% | 48.5% | −1.6 | −10.1u | 20-20 | 18-23 | 12-31 | 26-12 |
| 22 |  Anaheim Ducks | 82 | 38-44 | 46.3% | 53.7% | −7.4 | −18.8u | 20-21 | 18-23 | 6-24 | 32-20 |
| 23 |  Edmonton Oilers | 82 | 37-45 | 45.1% | 44.2% | +1.0 | −1.2u | 16-25 | 21-20 | 25-38 | 12-7 |
| 24 |  Utah Mammoth | 82 | 36-46 | 43.9% | 46.2% | −2.3 | −8.6u | 16-25 | 20-21 | 19-35 | 17-11 |
| 25 |  Vancouver Canucks | 82 | 36-46 | 43.9% | 56.2% | −12.3 | −23.8u | 17-24 | 19-22 | 1-11 | 35-35 |
| 26 |  Toronto Maple Leafs | 82 | 35-47 | 42.7% | 51.9% | −9.2 | −20.3u | 17-24 | 18-23 | 8-23 | 27-24 |
| 27 | Carolina Hurricanes | 82 | 33-49 | 40.2% | 43.5% | −3.2 | −8.2u | 13-28 | 20-21 | 27-46 | 6-3 |
| 28 | Vegas Golden Knights | 82 | 33-49 | 40.2% | 43.7% | −3.5 | −14.9u | 15-26 | 18-23 | 20-47 | 13-2 |
| 29 | New Jersey Devils | 82 | 32-50 | 39.0% | 47.2% | −8.2 | −21.1u | 12-29 | 20-21 | 12-34 | 20-16 |
| 30 | Florida Panthers | 81 | 31-50 | 38.3% | 47.4% | −9.2 | −25.5u | 15-25 | 16-25 | 9-38 | 22-12 |
| 31 | Dallas Stars | 82 | 31-51 | 37.8% | 43.1% | −5.3 | −17.1u | 12-29 | 19-22 | 17-48 | 14-3 |
| 32 | Los Angeles Kings | 81 | 29-52 | 35.8% | 46.1% | −10.3 | −24.7u | 9-32 | 20-20 | 12-42 | 17-10 |
Lines: median closing price across 11 US sportsbooks, about an hour before puck drop. Own side: −1.5 as the favourite, +1.5 as the underdog. Regular season only.
After the vig
Flat 1-unit bets at the median closing price across 11 US books. A blanket bet loses about the vig, and the sign flips between seasons:
| Bet every game on | 2024-25 ROI (bets) | 2025-26 ROI (bets) |
|---|---|---|
| Favourite −1.5 | −1.0% (1,313) | −16.0% (1,306) |
| Underdog +1.5 | −4.5% (1,311) | +2.1% (1,306) |
Our earlier puck-line study found the market overprices favourite −1.5 by about 2 points, roughly the size of the vig, and none of 15 pre-registered angles beat the closing price. Two angles stay on a watch list (underdog +1.5 when our margin model is 3+ points above the price; favourite on the second night of a back-to-back), unproven: live tests.
Current-season units use prediction-market lines where no book prices are stored, so they show as –.
What a puck-line record measures
The puck line is hockey's point spread, fixed at 1.5 goals: the favourite has to win by two or more, the underdog covers by losing by one or winning. A record here is covers and failures on each team's own side, favourite or underdog, graded on the final score. Overtime and shootout games are always one-goal margins, so the underdog covers every one of them. In 2025-26, 33.1% of favourites covered −1.5.
A team's cover rate is mostly its win rate plus noise. Against what the closing price expected, the gap is close to random: the odd-game and even-game halves of a season correlate at about 0.08, and one season predicts the next at −0.17.
Read the record as a description of what happened, not a forecast. Compare the "vs market" column, the cover rate minus what the closing prices implied, before reading anything into a hot team. Our earlier research found no puck-line angle that beat the vig.
Frequently asked questions
Which NHL team has the best puck line record in 2025-26?
BOS leads at 54-27 (66.7%) against the puck line through Jun 14. Records count every game with a closing line, on the team's own side (−1.5 as the favourite, +1.5 as the underdog).
Do NHL puck line records predict future covers?
No. Across 2024-25 and 2025-26 a team's puck-line results against the closing price had a season-to-season correlation of −0.17, and betting last season's 10 best puck-line teams lost −8.7%.
How often does the NHL favourite cover −1.5?
Over 2024-25 and 2025-26, favourites won by two or more about 36.0% of the time, while the closing prices implied about 37.9%. Betting every favourite −1.5 returned −1.0% in 2024-25 (1,313 bets) and −16.0% in 2025-26 (1,306); every underdog +1.5 returned −4.5% in 2024-25 (1,311 bets) and +2.1% in 2025-26 (1,306).
Why does an overtime loss always cover +1.5?
Overtime and shootout games end with a one-goal margin, so the underdog +1.5 wins every one of them and the favourite −1.5 never does. In 2025-26 0.0% of games went past regulation.