Betting research
NHL Over/Under Records 2025-26
Every NHL team against the closing total: overs, unders and pushes, home and away, with the market's expected over rate, goals per game against the implied total, and units on both sides.
Pittsburgh Penguins leads NHL teams with an over rate of 59.5% in 2025-26 (80-82 games with a line each), 0.2 points better than Anaheim Ducks.
Best and worst over rates, 2025-26
Pittsburgh Penguins59.5%47-32-3 · +9.3 vs mkt
Anaheim Ducks59.3%48-33-1 · +7.6 vs mkt
Vancouver Canucks59.2%45-31-6 · +8.7 vs mkt
Toronto Maple Leafs58.4%45-32-5 · +8.0 vs mkt
Edmonton Oilers57.7%45-33-4 · +6.8 vs mkt
Florida Panthers57.5%46-34-1 · +7.1 vs mkt
Colorado Avalanche40.8%31-45-6 · −9.5 vs mkt
New York Rangers44.2%34-43-3 · −6.3 vs mkt
Chicago Blackhawks45.5%35-42-4 · −4.6 vs mkt
Washington Capitals45.6%36-43-3 · −4.9 vs mkt
St. Louis Blues45.6%36-43-2 · −4.8 vs mkt
Seattle Kraken46.7%35-40-7 · −3.7 vs mkt
Do over/under records repeat?
How far each team's over rate ran ahead of or behind the market barely repeats. Odd games against even games within a season: r = −0.17 (2024-25) and −0.25 (2025-26). One season to the next: r = −0.17 across 32 teams. The spread between teams (SD 4.9 pts and 4.9 pts) is about what chance alone produces (5.5 pts; 95th percentile 6.7 pts).
Betting every 2025-26 game of the 10 teams with the best 2024-25 over records returned −2.3% (778 bets); the 10 worst returned −1.3% (785). Betting the unders of the 10 biggest under teams returned −8.5% (785).
So a team at the top of this table has mostly been lucky against prices that were already right. The sample is 2,618 regular-season games with closing lines from 11 US sportsbooks (2024-25 and 2025-26).
Every team, 2025-26
| # | Team | Lines | O-U-P | Over % | Market | vs mkt | Over u | Under u | Goals / implied | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 82 | 47-32-3 | 59.5% | 50.2% | +9.3 | +10.3u | −17.9u | 6.84 / 6.41 | 24-16-1 | 23-16-2 |
| 2 | Anaheim Ducks | 82 | 48-33-1 | 59.3% | 51.6% | +7.6 | +7.1u | −16.7u | 6.84 / 6.63 | 25-15-1 | 23-18-0 |
| 3 | Vancouver Canucks | 82 | 45-31-6 | 59.2% | 50.5% | +8.7 | +9.1u | −16.1u | 6.49 / 6.26 | 24-15-2 | 21-16-4 |
| 4 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 82 | 45-32-5 | 58.4% | 50.4% | +8.0 | +8.5u | −15.3u | 6.73 / 6.37 | 25-16-0 | 20-16-5 |
| 5 | Edmonton Oilers | 82 | 45-33-4 | 57.7% | 50.9% | +6.8 | +5.9u | −14.6u | 6.72 / 6.54 | 24-15-2 | 21-18-2 |
| 6 | Florida Panthers | 81 | 46-34-1 | 57.5% | 50.4% | +7.1 | +7.3u | −14.6u | 6.44 / 6.12 | 21-19-0 | 25-15-1 |
| 7 |  Minnesota Wild | 82 | 44-33-5 | 57.1% | 50.5% | +6.7 | +6.6u | −13.2u | 6.24 / 6.19 | 19-19-3 | 25-14-2 |
| 8 |  Montreal Canadiens | 82 | 45-34-3 | 57.0% | 50.5% | +6.5 | +6.9u | −12.9u | 6.57 / 6.36 | 23-17-1 | 22-17-2 |
| 9 |  Carolina Hurricanes | 82 | 44-37-1 | 54.3% | 50.4% | +3.9 | +2.2u | −10.0u | 6.54 / 6.32 | 26-14-1 | 18-23-0 |
| 10 |  Winnipeg Jets | 81 | 41-37-3 | 52.6% | 50.1% | +2.5 | +0.1u | −7.3u | 6.00 / 6.01 | 20-18-2 | 21-19-1 |
| 11 |  Boston Bruins | 81 | 42-38-1 | 52.5% | 50.2% | +2.3 | +0.0u | −7.2u | 6.35 / 6.22 | 18-21-1 | 24-17-0 |
| 12 |  Ottawa Senators | 82 | 42-38-2 | 52.5% | 50.7% | +1.8 | −1.1u | −6.5u | 6.39 / 6.18 | 19-21-1 | 23-17-1 |
| 13 |  Tampa Bay Lightning | 81 | 39-36-6 | 52.0% | 49.9% | +2.1 | −0.2u | −6.3u | 6.32 / 6.26 | 19-19-3 | 20-17-3 |
| 14 |  San Jose Sharks | 82 | 41-38-3 | 51.9% | 50.6% | +1.3 | −1.4u | −5.6u | 6.62 / 6.47 | 21-19-1 | 20-19-2 |
| 15 |  Utah Mammoth | 82 | 40-38-4 | 51.3% | 50.2% | +1.0 | −1.8u | −4.9u | 6.20 / 6.14 | 22-16-3 | 18-22-1 |
| 16 |  Detroit Red Wings | 81 | 38-37-6 | 50.7% | 50.2% | +0.4 | −3.0u | −4.3u | 6.05 / 6.21 | 20-18-2 | 18-19-4 |
| 17 |  Dallas Stars | 82 | 41-40-1 | 50.6% | 50.5% | +0.2 | −3.4u | −3.9u | 6.16 / 6.04 | 19-21-1 | 22-19-0 |
| 18 |  Vegas Golden Knights | 82 | 39-39-4 | 50.0% | 50.2% | −0.2 | −3.9u | −3.4u | 6.28 / 6.19 | 23-16-2 | 16-23-2 |
| 19 |  Philadelphia Flyers | 82 | 38-39-5 | 49.4% | 50.2% | −0.9 | −4.5u | −2.0u | 6.01 / 5.97 | 14-23-4 | 24-16-1 |
| 20 |  Buffalo Sabres | 82 | 38-41-3 | 48.1% | 50.4% | −2.3 | −7.3u | −0.3u | 6.45 / 6.45 | 20-20-1 | 18-21-2 |
| 21 |  New York Islanders | 81 | 38-41-2 | 48.1% | 50.2% | −2.1 | −6.3u | +0.1u | 5.83 / 6.11 | 21-18-1 | 17-23-1 |
| 22 |  Calgary Flames | 81 | 37-40-4 | 48.1% | 50.6% | −2.5 | −7.6u | −0.2u | 5.74 / 6.05 | 16-21-3 | 21-19-1 |
| 23 |  Nashville Predators | 82 | 37-41-4 | 47.4% | 50.3% | −2.8 | −7.8u | +0.6u | 6.29 / 6.19 | 21-18-2 | 16-23-2 |
| 24 |  Columbus Blue Jackets | 82 | 37-42-3 | 46.8% | 50.1% | −3.3 | −8.5u | +1.5u | 6.17 / 6.46 | 19-21-1 | 18-21-2 |
| 25 |  Los Angeles Kings | 81 | 37-42-2 | 46.8% | 50.0% | −3.2 | −8.7u | +0.9u | 5.77 / 5.87 | 19-20-2 | 18-22-0 |
| 26 |  New Jersey Devils | 82 | 37-42-3 | 46.8% | 50.3% | −3.5 | −9.0u | +1.6u | 5.90 / 6.06 | 20-20-1 | 17-22-2 |
| 27 | Seattle Kraken | 82 | 35-40-7 | 46.7% | 50.4% | −3.7 | −8.8u | +1.7u | 5.96 / 6.04 | 15-22-4 | 20-18-3 |
| 28 | St. Louis Blues | 81 | 36-43-2 | 45.6% | 50.4% | −4.8 | −10.2u | +4.1u | 5.96 / 5.93 | 18-21-2 | 18-22-0 |
| 29 | Washington Capitals | 82 | 36-43-3 | 45.6% | 50.5% | −4.9 | −11.3u | +3.5u | 6.18 / 6.19 | 16-25-0 | 20-18-3 |
| 30 | Chicago Blackhawks | 81 | 35-42-4 | 45.5% | 50.1% | −4.6 | −10.3u | +3.3u | 5.96 / 6.14 | 17-21-3 | 18-21-1 |
| 31 | New York Rangers | 80 | 34-43-3 | 44.2% | 50.5% | −6.3 | −12.8u | +5.9u | 5.97 / 6.05 | 13-27-1 | 21-16-2 |
| 32 | Colorado Avalanche | 82 | 31-45-6 | 40.8% | 50.3% | −9.5 | −17.2u | +10.6u | 6.16 / 6.42 | 18-20-3 | 13-25-3 |
Lines: median closing price across 11 US sportsbooks, about an hour before puck drop. Graded on the final score (the shootout winner counts one goal). Regular season only.
After the vig
Flat 1-unit bets at the median closing price across 11 US books. A blanket bet loses about the vig, and the sign flips between seasons:
| Bet every game on | 2024-25 ROI (bets) | 2025-26 ROI (bets) |
|---|---|---|
| Over | −7.6% (1,238) | −3.3% (1,251) |
| Under | −0.8% (1,238) | −6.0% (1,251) |
Overs lost −7.6% in 2024-25, when games went over 48.4% against 50.2% expected; in 2025-26 overs hit 51.1% (50.4% expected) and still lost −3.3%.
Current-season units use prediction-market lines where no book prices are stored, so they show as –.
What an over/under record measures
Each game's closing total (usually 5.5, 6 or 6.5 goals) is graded on the final score, with the shootout winner counted as one goal, the way sportsbooks settle it. A push is a whole-number total hit exactly. "Market" is the share of overs the no-vig closing prices expected for that team's games; in 2025-26 the league went 639-612-55 over.
Team over rates do not repeat. Splitting a season into odd and even games gives correlations near −0.25, and one season to the next −0.17. Scoring levels move with goaltending and pace, but books move the total first.
A team that has gone over in eight of ten is usually a team whose totals are about to move, not one that will keep beating them. Use the totals and implied team totals to see scoring expectations, and the vs-market column to see whether a streak is real.
Frequently asked questions
Which NHL team goes over the total the most in 2025-26?
PIT has gone over in 47-32-3 (59.5%) of its games with a closing total through Jun 14.
Do NHL over/under team trends continue?
Not reliably. Team over rates against the closing total had a split-half correlation of −0.25 and a season-to-season correlation of −0.17 in 2024-26. Betting the overs of last season's 10 biggest over teams returned −2.3%.
How often do NHL games go over the total?
In 2024-25 games went over 48.4% of the time (the prices expected 50.2%); in 2025-26, 51.1% (50.4% expected). Blind overs returned −7.6% in 2024-25 (1,238 bets) and −3.3% in 2025-26 (1,251), blind unders −0.8% in 2024-25 (1,238 bets) and −6.0% in 2025-26 (1,251).