Scoring First Wins Two NHL Games in Three Again, Now That Ties Are Gone

Two wins in three before 1942, and again since 2005

Was it always two in three? At the start, yes. In the 24 seasons from 1918-19 to 1941-42, the team that scored first won about 67% of its regular-season games, 3,559 games in all.

Then the number fell. Through the Original Six years, 1942-43 to 1966-67, the first-goal team won about 61%. It stayed near there for six decades: about 61% after the league doubled in 1967, 60% in the high-scoring 1980s and 1990s, and 61% in the first years of the loser point, when a team that lost in overtime still kept a point in the standings.

In 2005-06 it jumped back. Every regular season since has come in at 65% or better, all 20 in our records. From 1942-43 to 2003-04, only two seasons got there: 1953-54 and 1964-65.

The line sits around two in three before 1942, drops below 65 for most of six decades, and steps back up in 2005-06. Each step came in a season when the league changed what happens to a game still tied after 60 minutes.

The NHL dropped overtime in November 1942, and ties took the wins

Before 1942, a tie after 60 minutes was not the end. From 1928-29 the teams played 10 more minutes, and the clock ran the full 10 even after somebody scored. The last regular-season overtime game was played on Nov. 10, 1942: the Rangers beat the Black Hawks 5-3. On Nov. 21, the league stopped. Scouting the Refs, a site that covers NHL officiating and keeps a history of the rulebook, lists the change as “due to wartime train restrictions.” Overtime stayed out of the regular season until 1983-84.

That took wins away from first-goal teams. Before 1942, a team that scored first and was caught won about 4 games in 100 in that extra time, and settled for a tie in about 12. After November 1942 there was no extra time to win in. Ties rose to about 17 games in 100.

Read each group left to right, from the best finish to the worst. Before 1942 the second bar, overtime wins, has some height. In the Original Six years it is gone and the middle bar, ties, is taller. From 2005-06 the middle bar vanishes and the second bar grows.

Count it out per 100 games. Before 1942, first-goal teams won about 67 of every 100. In the Original Six years they won about 61, about 5 fewer. Nearly 4 of those 5 were the overtime wins that no longer existed. The rest came from leads that held a little less often through 60 minutes, in a league that scored more: about 5 goals a game before 1942 and 6 after. More goals give the team behind more chances to catch up, and losses in regulation rose from about 18 in 100 to 22.

How sure are we? The era totals, 3,559 games before and 4,882 after, are too far apart to be luck. Look only at the five seasons on either side of 1942, though, and the drop is about 3 games in 100. We ran that same five-before, five-after comparison at every changeover from one season to the next between 1927 and 2021, rule change or not. About one changeover in six shows a swing that size, up or down, with no new rule behind it. So that narrow window, on its own, could be luck.

The shootout gave the wins back in one season

If ties took the wins, ending ties should give them back. It did, right away. From 2005-06, a game still level after five minutes of overtime went to a shootout. Compare the five seasons before the lockout with the five after, and the first-goal team’s win rate rose by about 6.5 games in 100. Of the other 88 season changeovers we checked, only two produced a swing that big in either direction.

Put the three numbers side by side. On the ice, nothing changed. The first-goal team was ahead after 60 minutes and beaten in regulation about as often as before. Only the games tied after 60 changed. They used to end in a handshake. Now they end with a winner, and the team that scored first wins about half of them. Out of every 100 games in which it scores first, it now wins about 7 in overtime and 4 in a shootout.

The standings show it too. A win is worth two points and a tie one, and since 1999-2000 an overtime or shootout loss also earns one. Out of every 100 standings points a first-goal team could have earned, it took about 73 before 1942, 70 in the Original Six years and 73 since 2015-16.

The other overtime changes barely moved the win rate. Five-minute overtime returned in 1983-84 (+1.6 games in 100), the loser point and four-on-four arrived in 1999-2000 (−0.8), and three-on-three in 2015-16 (−1.1). Swings that size turn up at a third or more of all season changeovers. Five-minute overtime still left most tied games as ties, so it had little to hand out.

In the playoffs, where every game needs a winner, the rate stayed near two in three

The playoffs make a good check. Since 1942 a playoff game has almost always been played until somebody won. If the shootout era had made first goals stronger, playoff first goals should have gained too. They did not. Across 4,952 playoff games, the first-goal team won between about 65% and 74% in every era, with no jump in 2005: about 69% in 1980-99, 70% in 2005-15 and 68% since. Look narrowly at the five playoff springs on either side of 2005 and the rate even dipped, by about 7 games in 100. That dip rests on only 345 games before and 335 after, and could be luck.

The playoff bars wobble from era to era on small samples (the 1999-2004 high rests on 427 games), but they stay close to two in three and show no step in 2005. The regular-season bars dip in the tie years and rise to meet them once the shootout arrives. In 1980-99, a first-goal team won about 69 playoff games in 100 and about 60 regular-season games, because a regular-season game could still end 2-2.

Most of a first goal’s edge is the head start

Why two in three, and not more? Start with what a one-goal head start is worth on its own. Picture two equal teams. At 7:00 of the first period a point shot goes in off a skate. From there each side is as likely as the other to score the next goal, and the one after that. But the team that got the bounce is a goal up, so the other side has to outscore it by one over the 53 minutes left just to draw even.

Run every game that way, with goals falling at random at each era’s scoring rate, and the team that scored first is still ahead after 60 minutes about three times in five: 60% in the Original Six years, 59% in 1980-99 and 60% now. From here on, that is what “our odds” means. It is our own arithmetic from how often teams scored. No sportsbook is involved.

Better teams score first a little more often, but only a little. Going by each team’s goals for and against that season, and by home ice, our odds today give the team that went on to score first about a 51% chance of being the one to do it, barely better than a coin flip. Adding team strength raises the odds of still leading after 60 by about 1.5 games in 100 in the Original Six years and 0.7 now. Home ice adds about one or less.

In each group, the first three bars climb only a little. The head start does most of the work. Before 1980, the last bar, what happened, sits within about 2 games in 100 of the odds in every era. Split those seasons into odd and even years and the small gaps change size from one half to the other (in 1942-67 they even flip direction), so we don’t read much into them. After 1980 the last bar falls clearly short.

Since 1980, the leads that slip away end in ties

Since 1980 that shortfall has been steady. In every era, out of every 100 games it scored first, the first-goal team was still ahead after 60 minutes about 3 to 5 fewer times than our odds said: about 3 in 1980-99, 5 in 1999-2004 and 4 since 2015-16. Split the seasons into odd and even years and each era gives the same answer within half a game in 100, so this one is too steady to be luck. It is the finding of our comebacks story, seen from the other bench: teams that fall behind pull even more often than their scoring says they should.

The missing leads ended level after 60 minutes, and so did a few games the odds had the first-goal team losing. Since 2015-16 the first-goal team has been tied after regulation in 22% of games, against 16% by the odds. It was behind in 22%, a little under the 23% the odds expected. It loses in regulation about one game in five, as it did in the Original Six years (21.9% then, 21.6% now).

Before 1980 the three bars in each group sit near zero. After it, the first bar drops and the middle bar rises by about as much; the third stays at or a bit below zero. The drop deepened when the loser point arrived in 1999-2000 and a team that lost in overtime kept a point: the first-goal team was ahead after 60 about 3 games in 100 less often than in the five seasons before.

Our odds treat every minute alike, and the last minutes of a one-goal game are not alike. The trailing team pulls its goalie for an extra skater. The team ahead may sit back. Our odds can’t see any of that. They see only the result. More first-goal teams are level at the end of regulation than the scoring says they should be. Today about half of those teams go on to win in overtime or the shootout.

A 1-0 lead holds like any other one-goal lead

Is the first goal special, then, the one that breaks a 0-0 game? There is a way to check. Every game also has later goals that break a tie, the ones that make it 2-1 or 3-2. Line those up against 1-0 goals scored in the same period, and see which lead holds better against its odds.

They hold the same. From 1999-2000 on, a 1-0 lead from the first period was still ahead after 60 minutes in about 56% of 24,520 games, against 60% by the odds. A 2-1 or 3-2 lead from the first period was ahead in about 56%, against 61%. Both fall about 5 games in 100 short. The earlier eras match too, within a couple of games in 100.

In each pair the two bars sit close together, in every era and every period.

A goal in the first minute is worth no more than one at 15:00

Timing, then. A goal in the first minute feels like a statement. On Dec. 29, 1926, Merlyn Phillips of the Montreal Maroons scored five seconds into a game in Chicago. The Maroons led 4-0 and lost 5-4 in overtime (the goal-clock story has more on goals like his).

Over every season, the team that scored in the first minute won about 64% of 3,920 games. The team whose first goal came between 10:00 and 19:59 won 63%. A first goal in the second period won 67%, and one in the third 78%. Later goals are worth more because less time is left to answer them, just as the odds say. In no era does a first-minute goal hold clearly better or worse than its odds.

The first four bars are flat. Only the last two climb, because there is less game left for the other team to answer.

Original Six road teams won barely half the games they led first

Where the first goal is scored matters more than when. Over every season, a home team that scored first won about 69% of the time and a road team 58%. In the Original Six years, a road team that scored first won just 52% of 2,158 games and lost in regulation 29% of the time. Since 2015-16 that road team wins about 64%, helped by the shootout and by a home edge that has shrunk (our home-ice story traces it).

The gap between the two bars narrows over time, and both rise in 2005-06. Road teams still win less after scoring first, and our odds expect that, because the home side scores more at home. Allow for it and the two come out even: today home and road first-goal teams each fall about 4 to 5 games in 100 short of the odds for still leading after 60.

First-goal teams won 147 of 196 Game 7s, about 11 more than expected

The biggest games have their own first goals that didn’t hold up. Howe’s in 1942 is one. Forty-five years later, on May 31, 1987, Murray Craven put Philadelphia ahead in Game 7 of the Final at Edmonton. He “banked a shot off Fuhr’s skate only 1:41 into the game,” Wikipedia’s account says. Mark Messier tied it six minutes later, Jari Kurri and Glenn Anderson scored after that, and the Oilers won 3-1. Ron Hextall, in the Flyers’ net, won the Conn Smythe Trophy anyway.

On April 23, 2019, William Karlsson scored at 10:10 of the first period of Game 7 in San Jose, and Vegas built a 3-0 lead. In the third, Cody Eakin got a major penalty for a play that injured Joe Pavelski, and the Sharks scored four times on the five-minute power play. Vegas tied it with 47 seconds left; Barclay Goodrow won it for San Jose at 18:19 of overtime. The NHL later apologized to Vegas for the call.

And on May 4, 2024, William Nylander gave Toronto a 1-0 lead at 9:01 of the third period of Game 7 in Boston. A goal that late usually wins: by our odds, Toronto had about a 71% chance of still leading at the end of regulation. Boston tied it, and David Pastrnak won it 1:54 into overtime.

Those are the famous ones. Across all 196 Game 7s in our records, the team that scored first won 147. The playoff rate of each era predicts about 136. Eleven more wins than that, over 196 games, is more than chance usually hands out, but not so much that chance can be ruled out. It could be luck.