Draw Duel
Noah Ostlund faceoff stats, 2025-26
BUF · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
37.5%
90%: 34.1%–41.0% vs an average regular, on 333 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
31.5%
86 won of 273 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
34.2% / 17.1%
120 strong-side, 82 weak-side draws this season
Next game
3.7 FOW
2026-10-06 vs MIN: 9 draws at 40.9%, range 1–6
Where Ostlund wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 80 | 25 | 31.3% |
| OZ right | 32 | 3 | 9.4% |
| NZ left (att.) | 12 | 5 | 41.7% |
| NZ right (att.) | 11 | 3 | 27.3% |
| Centre | 71 | 31 | 43.7% |
| NZ left (def.) | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
| NZ right (def.) | 12 | 4 | 33.3% |
| DZ left | 19 | 8 | 42.1% |
| DZ right | 27 | 4 | 14.8% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R29.6%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L30.3%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R30.5%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R31.0%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L31.2%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L31.4%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L50.4%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L48.9%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L47.2%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L46.8%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R46.6%
- Hendrix Lapierre PIT · L46.2%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 40.9% 22 | 40.9% 22 | — 0 | — 0 | 18.2% 11 | 63.6% 11 | — 0 | 28.6% 7 | 40.0% 10 |
| 2025-26 | 31.5% 273 | 32.2% 261 | 11.1% 9 | 33.3% 3 | 25.0% 112 | 40.0% 115 | 26.1% 46 | 34.2% 120 | 17.1% 82 |
| 2024-25 | 36.4% 22 | 36.4% 22 | — 0 | — 0 | 28.6% 7 | 55.6% 9 | 16.7% 6 | 26.7% 15 | — 0 |
| Playoffs (all) | 18.8% 16 | 21.4% 14 | 0.0% 2 | — 0 | 16.7% 6 | 22.2% 9 | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 7 | 20.0% 5 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Monahan | 6–3 | 66.7% | 36.0% | 36.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.9) |
| John Tavares | 2–5 | 28.6% | 31.4% | 31.4% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Andrew Copp | 2–5 | 28.6% | 35.0% | 34.9% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Pavel Zacha | 1–6 | 14.3% | 38.2% | 37.9% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Nicolas Roy | 2–4 | 33.3% | 38.9% | 38.8% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Max Domi | 1–5 | 16.7% | 35.3% | 35.1% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Fraser Minten | 3–3 | 50.0% | 37.3% | 37.5% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Zemgus Girgensons | 1–5 | 16.7% | 43.8% | 43.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Cody Glass | 2–3 | 40.0% | 35.4% | 35.4% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Mikael Backlund | 2–3 | 40.0% | 34.3% | 34.4% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Jack Drury | 0–5 | 0.0% | 26.5% | 26.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Morgan Barron | 3–2 | 60.0% | 43.2% | 43.3% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs CHI | 3 | 11 | 27.3% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ CBJ | 6 | 11 | 54.5% |
| 2026-04-28 | vs BOS | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-26 | @ BOS | 1 | 9 | 11.1% |
| 2026-04-23 | @ BOS | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| 2026-03-22 | @ ANA | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ LAK | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-19 | @ SJS | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-17 | @ VGK | 3 | 7 | 42.9% |
| 2026-03-14 | vs TOR | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs MIN likely opponents: Joel Eriksson Ek (41%), Ryan Hartman (42%)3.7 FOW 1–6
- 2026-10-08 vs DAL likely opponents: Wyatt Johnston (41%), Roope Hintz (37%)3.4 FOW 1–6
- 2026-10-10 vs UTA likely opponents: Vincent Trocheck (31%), Kevin Stenlund (34%)3.5 FOW 1–6
FAQ
What is Noah Ostlund's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Noah Ostlund's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Noah Ostlund win tonight?
When Noah Ostlund has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Noah Ostlund better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.