Draw Duel
John Tavares faceoff stats, 2025-26
TOR · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
56.6%
90%: 55.1%–58.1% vs an average regular, on 4,439 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
57.5%
801 won of 1392 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
55.8% / 56.0%
713 strong-side, 432 weak-side draws this season
Next game
9.9 FOW
2026-10-06 vs NSH: 17 draws at 57.4%, range 5–15
Where Tavares wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 463 | 256 | 55.3% |
| OZ right | 176 | 90 | 51.1% |
| NZ left (att.) | 42 | 27 | 64.3% |
| NZ right (att.) | 39 | 26 | 66.7% |
| Centre | 247 | 161 | 65.2% |
| NZ left (def.) | 31 | 15 | 48.4% |
| NZ right (def.) | 26 | 14 | 53.8% |
| DZ left | 177 | 100 | 56.5% |
| DZ right | 191 | 112 | 58.6% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R47.8%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L48.3%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R48.9%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R49.4%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L49.4%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L49.6%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L68.7%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L68.4%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L67.5%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L65.9%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L65.6%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R65.5%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 43.2% 44 | 50.0% 24 | 36.8% 19 | 0.0% 1 | 47.1% 34 | 16.7% 6 | 50.0% 4 | 48.4% 31 | 40.0% 10 |
| 2025-26 | 57.5% 1392 | 58.0% 1093 | 56.0% 275 | 54.2% 24 | 54.1% 639 | 63.1% 385 | 57.6% 368 | 55.8% 713 | 56.0% 432 |
| 2024-25 | 58.3% 1308 | 57.7% 998 | 60.5% 271 | 56.4% 39 | 59.3% 545 | 59.0% 344 | 56.3% 419 | 58.1% 640 | 58.7% 450 |
| 2023-24 | 59.3% 1352 | 59.2% 1035 | 60.0% 310 | 42.9% 7 | 60.6% 627 | 57.4% 371 | 59.0% 354 | 61.5% 672 | 56.9% 434 |
| Playoffs (all) | 55.1% 343 | 52.3% 258 | 64.1% 78 | 57.1% 7 | 58.6% 140 | 52.0% 100 | 53.4% 103 | 57.6% 184 | 49.0% 98 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Giroux | 28–36 | 43.8% | 42.9% | 43.0% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Anton Lundell | 29–34 | 46.0% | 54.6% | 53.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Jake Evans | 31–30 | 50.8% | 49.1% | 49.3% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Shane Pinto | 27–26 | 50.9% | 55.1% | 54.7% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Brock Nelson | 37–15 | 71.2% | 58.0% | 59.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.9) |
| Charlie Coyle | 29–21 | 58.0% | 53.9% | 54.2% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Dylan Cozens | 26–23 | 53.1% | 55.1% | 54.9% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Aleksander Barkov | 19–24 | 44.2% | 50.2% | 49.7% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Sam Bennett | 28–15 | 65.1% | 60.6% | 61.0% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 22–20 | 52.4% | 46.4% | 46.9% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Vincent Trocheck | 19–22 | 46.3% | 48.0% | 47.8% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Pavel Zacha | 25–14 | 64.1% | 53.9% | 54.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs OTT | 7 | 20 | 35.0% |
| 2026-09-30 | vs NYI | 3 | 8 | 37.5% |
| 2026-09-29 | vs MTL | 9 | 16 | 56.3% |
| 2026-04-15 | @ OTT | 9 | 16 | 56.3% |
| 2026-04-13 | vs DAL | 11 | 20 | 55.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs FLA | 14 | 23 | 60.9% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ NYI | 11 | 19 | 57.9% |
| 2026-04-08 | vs WSH | 15 | 23 | 65.2% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ LAK | 13 | 22 | 59.1% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ SJS | 13 | 21 | 61.9% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs NSH likely opponents: Ryan O'Reilly (55%), Jack Drury (51%)9.9 FOW 5–15
- 2026-10-08 vs VGK likely opponents: Jack Eichel (58%), William Karlsson (55%)9.8 FOW 5–15
- 2026-10-10 vs COL likely opponents: Brock Nelson (58%), Nathan MacKinnon (56%)10.2 FOW 5–15
FAQ
What is John Tavares's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows John Tavares's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will John Tavares win tonight?
When John Tavares has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is John Tavares better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.