Draw Duel
Shane Pinto faceoff stats, 2025-26
OTT · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
49.7%
90%: 47.7%–51.7% vs an average regular, on 2,314 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
51.8%
396 won of 764 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
56.5% / 46.2%
441 strong-side, 93 weak-side draws this season
Next game
4.5 FOW
2026-10-05 vs BOS: 9 draws at 49.6%, range 1–8
Where Pinto wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 20 | 12 | 60.0% |
| OZ right | 100 | 57 | 57.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 12 | 6 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 33 | 18 | 54.5% |
| Centre | 230 | 104 | 45.2% |
| NZ left (def.) | 17 | 4 | 23.5% |
| NZ right (def.) | 40 | 21 | 52.5% |
| DZ left | 44 | 21 | 47.7% |
| DZ right | 268 | 153 | 57.1% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R41.3%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L41.5%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R42.2%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L42.6%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R42.7%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L42.8%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L62.6%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L62.3%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L61.1%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L59.5%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L59.2%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R58.9%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 47.1% 17 | 43.8% 16 | — 0 | 100.0% 1 | — 0 | 60.0% 5 | 41.7% 12 | 37.5% 8 | 50.0% 6 |
| 2025-26 | 51.8% 764 | 51.2% 631 | 69.2% 26 | 51.4% 107 | 57.5% 120 | 46.1% 332 | 55.8% 312 | 56.5% 441 | 46.2% 93 |
| 2024-25 | 50.1% 886 | 50.4% 779 | 55.2% 29 | 44.9% 78 | 51.4% 177 | 51.5% 295 | 48.6% 414 | 51.0% 525 | 48.5% 165 |
| 2023-24 | 50.6% 496 | 51.2% 463 | 50.0% 14 | 36.8% 19 | 53.8% 130 | 52.0% 196 | 46.5% 170 | 48.9% 231 | 50.0% 126 |
| Playoffs (all) | 45.0% 151 | 45.5% 134 | 60.0% 5 | 33.3% 12 | 38.5% 26 | 50.8% 59 | 42.4% 66 | 43.8% 80 | 44.8% 29 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 31–57 | 35.2% | 43.6% | 42.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Dylan Larkin | 32–24 | 57.1% | 47.2% | 48.2% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
| John Tavares | 26–27 | 49.1% | 44.9% | 45.3% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 12–19 | 38.7% | 47.3% | 46.8% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 14–16 | 46.7% | 51.5% | 51.2% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Nick Suzuki | 15–15 | 50.0% | 49.8% | 49.8% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Dylan Strome | 12–15 | 44.4% | 46.1% | 46.0% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Sean Couturier | 15–12 | 55.6% | 45.2% | 45.7% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Sebastian Aho | 16–11 | 59.3% | 48.8% | 49.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Logan Stankoven | 11–12 | 47.8% | 56.0% | 55.7% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Adam Fantilli | 13–9 | 59.1% | 53.1% | 53.4% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Nico Hischier | 9–13 | 40.9% | 44.6% | 44.4% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ TOR | 8 | 17 | 47.1% |
| 2026-04-25 | vs CAR | 7 | 11 | 63.6% |
| 2026-04-23 | vs CAR | 4 | 10 | 40.0% |
| 2026-04-20 | @ CAR | 6 | 9 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-18 | @ CAR | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-15 | vs TOR | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
| 2026-04-12 | @ NJD | 5 | 8 | 62.5% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ NYI | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs FLA | 7 | 10 | 70.0% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs TBL | 3 | 12 | 25.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-05 vs BOS likely opponents: Pavel Zacha (48%), Elias Lindholm (49%)4.5 FOW 1–8
- 2026-10-06 vs DET likely opponents: Andrew Copp (48%), J.T. Compher (53%)4.8 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-08 vs PHI likely opponents: Christian Dvorak (48%), Noel Acciari (52%)4.8 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-10 vs NSH likely opponents: Ryan O'Reilly (48%), Jack Drury (44%)4.8 FOW 2–8
FAQ
What is Shane Pinto's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Shane Pinto's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Shane Pinto win tonight?
When Shane Pinto has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Shane Pinto better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.