Draw Duel
Dylan Larkin faceoff stats, 2025-26
DET · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
53.4%
90%: 51.8%–54.9% vs an average regular, on 4,384 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
52.9%
789 won of 1492 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
57.0% / 46.5%
712 strong-side, 508 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Larkin wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 407 | 233 | 57.2% |
| OZ right | 138 | 64 | 46.4% |
| NZ left (att.) | 41 | 20 | 48.8% |
| NZ right (att.) | 20 | 11 | 55.0% |
| Centre | 272 | 147 | 54.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 32 | 23 | 71.9% |
| NZ right (def.) | 29 | 13 | 44.8% |
| DZ left | 232 | 130 | 56.0% |
| DZ right | 321 | 148 | 46.1% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R44.5%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L45.1%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R45.6%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R46.1%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L46.2%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L46.4%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L65.7%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L65.4%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L64.4%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L62.8%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R62.5%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L62.4%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 52.9% 1492 | 51.5% 1025 | 60.0% 285 | 49.5% 182 | 54.5% 545 | 54.3% 394 | 50.3% 553 | 57.0% 712 | 46.5% 508 |
| 2024-25 | 54.5% 1599 | 52.6% 1117 | 60.7% 305 | 55.9% 177 | 56.0% 618 | 51.3% 417 | 55.1% 564 | 58.8% 804 | 51.2% 514 |
| 2023-24 | 55.4% 1293 | 55.9% 943 | 57.4% 244 | 46.2% 106 | 58.6% 485 | 54.5% 393 | 52.5% 415 | 58.4% 634 | 49.6% 385 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Staal | 39–41 | 48.8% | 46.4% | 46.7% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Nick Suzuki | 42–35 | 54.5% | 53.2% | 53.4% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Auston Matthews | 38–35 | 52.1% | 46.9% | 47.6% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Sidney Crosby | 37–34 | 52.1% | 48.7% | 49.1% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Nico Hischier | 40–29 | 58.0% | 49.3% | 50.4% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Claude Giroux | 33–35 | 48.5% | 43.3% | 43.9% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Anthony Cirelli | 42–25 | 62.7% | 53.9% | 54.9% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 39–28 | 58.2% | 47.3% | 48.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.8) |
| Charlie Coyle | 29–36 | 44.6% | 52.5% | 51.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Elias Lindholm | 27–36 | 42.9% | 47.7% | 47.1% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Ryan McLeod | 36–23 | 61.0% | 55.3% | 55.9% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Shane Pinto | 24–33 | 42.1% | 52.8% | 51.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | @ TBL | 10 | 17 | 58.8% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs NJD | 10 | 14 | 71.4% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs PHI | 15 | 25 | 60.0% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs CBJ | 11 | 22 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs MIN | 13 | 20 | 65.0% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ NYR | 11 | 21 | 52.4% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ PHI | 10 | 18 | 55.6% |
| 2026-03-31 | @ PIT | 5 | 11 | 45.5% |
| 2026-03-28 | vs PHI | 5 | 14 | 35.7% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ BUF | 10 | 15 | 66.7% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Dylan Larkin's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Dylan Larkin's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Dylan Larkin win tonight?
When Dylan Larkin has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Dylan Larkin better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.