Draw Duel
Nick Suzuki faceoff stats, 2025-26
MTL · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
51.0%
90%: 49.5%–52.5% vs an average regular, on 4,532 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
50.4%
731 won of 1449 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
49.6% / 48.7%
825 strong-side, 300 weak-side draws this season
Next game
9.1 FOW
2026-10-06 vs CAR: 18 draws at 50.0%, range 4–14
Where Suzuki wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 127 | 61 | 48.0% |
| OZ right | 510 | 260 | 51.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 36 | 15 | 41.7% |
| NZ right (att.) | 33 | 15 | 45.5% |
| Centre | 324 | 176 | 54.3% |
| NZ left (def.) | 36 | 19 | 52.8% |
| NZ right (def.) | 33 | 20 | 60.6% |
| DZ left | 101 | 51 | 50.5% |
| DZ right | 249 | 114 | 45.8% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R42.4%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L42.8%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R43.4%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L43.8%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R43.9%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L44.0%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L63.8%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L63.4%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L62.4%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L60.7%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L60.4%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R60.2%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 50.0% 34 | 46.4% 28 | 60.0% 5 | 100.0% 1 | 61.5% 13 | 40.0% 15 | 50.0% 6 | 65.0% 20 | 0.0% 3 |
| 2025-26 | 50.4% 1449 | 51.0% 1050 | 50.5% 325 | 41.9% 74 | 50.4% 637 | 53.0% 462 | 47.1% 350 | 49.6% 825 | 48.7% 300 |
| 2024-25 | 51.6% 1318 | 52.4% 981 | 50.7% 304 | 36.4% 33 | 50.5% 641 | 53.8% 368 | 51.1% 309 | 51.1% 829 | 51.2% 244 |
| 2023-24 | 52.6% 1311 | 51.3% 1096 | 59.9% 157 | 56.9% 58 | 50.9% 513 | 52.6% 426 | 54.8% 372 | 53.8% 781 | 48.3% 234 |
| Playoffs (all) | 53.1% 420 | 51.3% 306 | 56.9% 102 | 66.7% 12 | 53.1% 209 | 51.5% 130 | 55.6% 81 | 51.1% 270 | 67.2% 67 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Cirelli | 77–71 | 52.0% | 50.4% | 50.8% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Ryan McLeod | 46–39 | 54.1% | 49.8% | 50.5% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Jordan Staal | 34–48 | 41.5% | 42.4% | 42.2% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Sidney Crosby | 22–52 | 29.7% | 46.3% | 44.2% | unusual (z -2.9) |
| Auston Matthews | 31–36 | 46.3% | 43.7% | 44.0% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Nic Dowd | 36–23 | 61.0% | 53.6% | 54.4% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Tage Thompson | 34–23 | 59.6% | 55.4% | 55.8% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Josh Norris | 22–33 | 40.0% | 49.6% | 48.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Nico Hischier | 20–34 | 37.0% | 44.3% | 43.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Sebastian Aho | 22–32 | 40.7% | 49.3% | 48.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Dylan Larkin | 21–29 | 42.0% | 46.7% | 46.3% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois | 25–25 | 50.0% | 51.4% | 51.3% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ PIT | 10 | 22 | 45.5% |
| 2026-09-29 | @ TOR | 7 | 12 | 58.3% |
| 2026-05-29 | @ CAR | 7 | 17 | 41.2% |
| 2026-05-27 | vs CAR | 7 | 17 | 41.2% |
| 2026-05-25 | vs CAR | 4 | 14 | 28.6% |
| 2026-05-23 | @ CAR | 8 | 16 | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-21 | @ CAR | 8 | 16 | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-18 | @ BUF | 10 | 20 | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-16 | vs BUF | 9 | 20 | 45.0% |
| 2026-05-14 | @ BUF | 6 | 16 | 37.5% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs CAR likely opponents: Jordan Staal (44%), Sebastian Aho (49%)9.1 FOW 4–14
- 2026-10-08 vs NSH likely opponents: Ryan O'Reilly (48%), Jack Drury (44%)9.4 FOW 5–14
- 2026-10-10 vs DET likely opponents: Andrew Copp (49%), J.T. Compher (55%)9.7 FOW 5–15
FAQ
What is Nick Suzuki's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Nick Suzuki's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Nick Suzuki win tonight?
When Nick Suzuki has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Nick Suzuki better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.