Draw Duel
Josh Norris faceoff stats, 2025-26
BUF · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
50.2%
90%: 48.1%–52.3% vs an average regular, on 2,163 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
49.5%
294 won of 594 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
54.5% / 41.1%
319 strong-side, 163 weak-side draws this season
Next game
6.0 FOW
2026-10-06 vs MIN: 11 draws at 54.1%, range 2–10
Where Norris wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 191 | 111 | 58.1% |
| OZ right | 42 | 18 | 42.9% |
| NZ left (att.) | 18 | 8 | 44.4% |
| NZ right (att.) | 18 | 8 | 44.4% |
| Centre | 112 | 53 | 47.3% |
| NZ left (def.) | 15 | 10 | 66.7% |
| NZ right (def.) | 8 | 2 | 25.0% |
| DZ left | 95 | 45 | 47.4% |
| DZ right | 95 | 39 | 41.1% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R41.5%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L42.1%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R42.5%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R43.0%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L43.1%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L43.4%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L62.8%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L62.5%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L61.5%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L59.8%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R59.5%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L59.5%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 53.8% 13 | 53.8% 13 | — 0 | — 0 | 50.0% 8 | 66.7% 3 | 50.0% 2 | 66.7% 6 | 25.0% 4 |
| 2025-26 | 49.5% 594 | 49.6% 474 | 50.5% 111 | 33.3% 9 | 55.4% 233 | 47.4% 171 | 44.2% 190 | 54.5% 319 | 41.1% 163 |
| 2024-25 | 53.8% 767 | 53.6% 560 | 56.0% 109 | 53.1% 98 | 54.1% 209 | 54.3% 258 | 53.3% 300 | 55.5% 499 | 41.6% 101 |
| 2023-24 | 52.1% 629 | 52.2% 542 | 54.4% 57 | 46.7% 30 | 50.9% 214 | 53.4% 236 | 52.0% 179 | 54.5% 323 | 44.2% 156 |
| Playoffs (all) | 56.3% 160 | 59.1% 127 | 44.4% 27 | 50.0% 6 | 51.5% 68 | 59.6% 52 | 60.0% 40 | 55.7% 79 | 53.3% 45 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki | 33–22 | 60.0% | 50.4% | 51.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Elias Lindholm | 21–20 | 51.2% | 45.0% | 45.4% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Phillip Danault | 22–18 | 55.0% | 45.7% | 46.4% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| Jake Evans | 16–17 | 48.5% | 45.1% | 45.3% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Charlie Coyle | 11–17 | 39.3% | 49.9% | 49.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Dylan Larkin | 13–14 | 48.1% | 48.7% | 48.7% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Dylan Strome | 13–14 | 48.1% | 50.0% | 49.9% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Jack Eichel | 16–10 | 61.5% | 54.6% | 55.0% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Pavel Zacha | 14–10 | 58.3% | 47.4% | 47.9% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Nico Hischier | 11–12 | 47.8% | 47.1% | 47.1% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Dylan Cozens | 14–7 | 66.7% | 50.8% | 51.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
| Anton Lundell | 13–8 | 61.9% | 48.4% | 48.9% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs CHI | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ CBJ | 5 | 7 | 71.4% |
| 2026-05-18 | vs MTL | 18 | 26 | 69.2% |
| 2026-05-16 | @ MTL | 11 | 17 | 64.7% |
| 2026-05-14 | vs MTL | 10 | 19 | 52.6% |
| 2026-05-12 | @ MTL | 10 | 16 | 62.5% |
| 2026-05-10 | @ MTL | 2 | 8 | 25.0% |
| 2026-05-08 | vs MTL | 5 | 12 | 41.7% |
| 2026-05-06 | vs MTL | 11 | 18 | 61.1% |
| 2026-05-01 | @ BOS | 6 | 12 | 50.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs MIN likely opponents: Joel Eriksson Ek (55%), Ryan Hartman (55%)6.0 FOW 2–10
- 2026-10-08 vs DAL likely opponents: Wyatt Johnston (54%), Roope Hintz (50%)5.6 FOW 2–9
- 2026-10-10 vs UTA likely opponents: Vincent Trocheck (44%), Kevin Stenlund (47%)5.8 FOW 2–9
FAQ
What is Josh Norris's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Josh Norris's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Josh Norris win tonight?
When Josh Norris has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Josh Norris better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.