Draw Duel
Dylan Cozens faceoff stats, 2025-26
OTT · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
49.9%
90%: 48.1%–51.7% vs an average regular, on 3,224 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
53.2%
435 won of 818 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
53.7% / 64.2%
540 strong-side, 53 weak-side draws this season
Next game
3.6 FOW
2026-10-05 vs BOS: 7 draws at 49.5%, range 1–6
Where Cozens wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 19 | 7 | 36.8% |
| OZ right | 287 | 156 | 54.4% |
| NZ left (att.) | 11 | 9 | 81.8% |
| NZ right (att.) | 56 | 31 | 55.4% |
| Centre | 225 | 111 | 49.3% |
| NZ left (def.) | 7 | 4 | 57.1% |
| NZ right (def.) | 41 | 22 | 53.7% |
| DZ left | 16 | 14 | 87.5% |
| DZ right | 156 | 81 | 51.9% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R41.4%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L41.7%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R42.3%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L42.7%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R42.9%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L43.0%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L62.8%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L62.4%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L61.3%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L59.7%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L59.4%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R59.1%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 37.5% 16 | 18.2% 11 | 80.0% 5 | — 0 | 57.1% 7 | 40.0% 5 | 0.0% 4 | 50.0% 10 | 0.0% 4 |
| 2025-26 | 53.2% 818 | 53.0% 704 | 56.1% 107 | 28.6% 7 | 53.3% 306 | 52.1% 340 | 55.2% 172 | 53.7% 540 | 64.2% 53 |
| 2024-25 | 50.6% 1160 | 51.4% 891 | 50.5% 184 | 42.4% 85 | 50.4% 466 | 50.9% 322 | 50.5% 372 | 49.8% 741 | 50.2% 219 |
| 2023-24 | 45.5% 1146 | 46.7% 786 | 43.9% 171 | 42.3% 189 | 46.3% 404 | 42.5% 306 | 47.0% 436 | 47.5% 701 | 40.8% 255 |
| Playoffs (all) | 52.4% 84 | 54.5% 77 | 28.6% 7 | — 0 | 54.5% 22 | 51.6% 31 | 51.6% 31 | 58.8% 51 | 40.0% 15 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Tavares | 23–26 | 46.9% | 44.9% | 45.1% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Christian Dvorak | 14–22 | 38.9% | 46.4% | 45.9% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Jake Evans | 15–17 | 46.9% | 47.0% | 47.0% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Sean Monahan | 15–16 | 48.4% | 48.2% | 48.2% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Nico Hischier | 17–14 | 54.8% | 43.3% | 44.0% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Dylan Larkin | 15–16 | 48.4% | 46.6% | 46.7% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Auston Matthews | 16–15 | 51.6% | 43.3% | 43.8% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Nick Suzuki | 18–12 | 60.0% | 50.6% | 51.2% | a bit unusual (z 1.0) |
| Jordan Staal | 19–11 | 63.3% | 42.6% | 43.7% | unusual (z 2.3) |
| Vincent Trocheck | 17–12 | 58.6% | 45.5% | 46.2% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Bo Horvat | 7–22 | 24.1% | 44.3% | 43.2% | unusual (z -2.2) |
| Anton Lundell | 10–18 | 35.7% | 48.5% | 47.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ TOR | 6 | 16 | 37.5% |
| 2026-04-25 | vs CAR | 4 | 5 | 80.0% |
| 2026-04-23 | vs CAR | 3 | 5 | 60.0% |
| 2026-04-20 | @ CAR | 4 | 5 | 80.0% |
| 2026-04-18 | @ CAR | 7 | 11 | 63.6% |
| 2026-04-15 | vs TOR | 1 | 5 | 20.0% |
| 2026-04-12 | @ NJD | 5 | 7 | 71.4% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ NYI | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs FLA | 5 | 11 | 45.5% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs TBL | 6 | 14 | 42.9% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-05 vs BOS likely opponents: Pavel Zacha (48%), Elias Lindholm (49%)3.6 FOW 1–6
- 2026-10-06 vs DET likely opponents: Andrew Copp (47%), J.T. Compher (54%)3.9 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-08 vs PHI likely opponents: Christian Dvorak (47%), Noel Acciari (52%)3.9 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-10 vs NSH likely opponents: Ryan O'Reilly (47%), Jack Drury (43%)3.8 FOW 1–7
FAQ
What is Dylan Cozens's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Dylan Cozens's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Dylan Cozens win tonight?
When Dylan Cozens has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Dylan Cozens better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.