Draw Duel
Bo Horvat faceoff stats, 2025-26
NYI · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
55.0%
90%: 53.4%–56.6% vs an average regular, on 4,091 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
56.3%
690 won of 1226 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
60.3% / 49.6%
643 strong-side, 355 weak-side draws this season
Next game
11.1 FOW
2026-10-06 vs NYR: 21 draws at 54.1%, range 6–17
Where Horvat wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 394 | 251 | 63.7% |
| OZ right | 129 | 67 | 51.9% |
| NZ left (att.) | 31 | 18 | 58.1% |
| NZ right (att.) | 30 | 12 | 40.0% |
| Centre | 228 | 126 | 55.3% |
| NZ left (def.) | 21 | 15 | 71.4% |
| NZ right (def.) | 34 | 15 | 44.1% |
| DZ left | 197 | 104 | 52.8% |
| DZ right | 162 | 82 | 50.6% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R46.2%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L46.8%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R47.3%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R47.8%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L47.8%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L48.1%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L67.1%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L66.8%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L65.9%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L64.3%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R64.0%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L63.9%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 50.0% 30 | 38.1% 21 | 66.7% 6 | 100.0% 3 | 58.3% 12 | 37.5% 8 | 50.0% 10 | 62.5% 16 | 40.0% 10 |
| 2025-26 | 56.3% 1226 | 55.2% 820 | 61.2% 289 | 51.3% 117 | 60.8% 523 | 54.1% 344 | 51.8% 359 | 60.3% 643 | 49.6% 355 |
| 2024-25 | 58.2% 1319 | 58.6% 987 | 60.6% 251 | 45.7% 81 | 61.1% 552 | 55.0% 380 | 57.1% 387 | 63.4% 680 | 51.8% 396 |
| 2023-24 | 53.9% 1419 | 53.5% 1071 | 56.3% 272 | 51.3% 76 | 55.7% 654 | 53.1% 360 | 51.9% 405 | 57.9% 750 | 48.5% 435 |
| Playoffs (all) | 54.6% 97 | 53.0% 66 | 52.4% 21 | 70.0% 10 | 61.5% 39 | 44.4% 27 | 54.8% 31 | 58.7% 46 | 54.1% 37 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby | 28–31 | 47.5% | 49.4% | 49.2% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Charlie Coyle | 34–19 | 64.2% | 54.4% | 55.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Jordan Staal | 32–18 | 64.0% | 49.2% | 50.6% | unusual (z 2.1) |
| Mika Zibanejad | 28–22 | 56.0% | 53.1% | 53.4% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Noah Cates | 26–20 | 56.5% | 60.3% | 60.0% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Dylan Strome | 14–27 | 34.1% | 51.2% | 49.9% | unusual (z -2.2) |
| Nico Hischier | 24–17 | 58.5% | 51.4% | 52.0% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Nick Suzuki | 13–25 | 34.2% | 55.8% | 54.3% | unusual (z -2.7) |
| Sean Couturier | 23–14 | 62.2% | 49.9% | 50.8% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
| Sean Monahan | 26–11 | 70.3% | 55.1% | 56.2% | a bit unusual (z 1.9) |
| J.T. Miller | 18–18 | 50.0% | 44.5% | 44.9% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Anthony Cirelli | 20–15 | 57.1% | 59.9% | 59.7% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs NJD | 9 | 15 | 60.0% |
| 2026-09-30 | @ TOR | 6 | 15 | 40.0% |
| 2026-04-14 | vs CAR | 5 | 15 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-12 | vs MTL | 10 | 20 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs OTT | 8 | 21 | 38.1% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs TOR | 19 | 29 | 65.5% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ CAR | 10 | 17 | 58.8% |
| 2026-04-03 | vs PHI | 13 | 20 | 65.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | @ BUF | 12 | 23 | 52.2% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs PIT | 15 | 22 | 68.2% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs NYR likely opponents: J.T. Miller (49%), Mika Zibanejad (53%)11.1 FOW 6–17
- 2026-10-08 vs CHI likely opponents: Frank Nazar (60%), Anton Frondell (73%)13.6 FOW 8–20
- 2026-10-10 vs TBL likely opponents: Anthony Cirelli (59%), Brayden Point (59%)12.5 FOW 7–18
FAQ
What is Bo Horvat's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Bo Horvat's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Bo Horvat win tonight?
When Bo Horvat has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Bo Horvat better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.