Draw Duel
Mika Zibanejad faceoff stats, 2025-26
NYR · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
51.9%
90%: 50.2%–53.6% vs an average regular, on 3,575 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
52.5%
574 won of 1094 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
53.0% / 49.3%
591 strong-side, 272 weak-side draws this season
Next game
8.4 FOW
2026-10-04 vs UTA: 15 draws at 54.2%, range 4–13
Where Zibanejad wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 100 | 51 | 51.0% |
| OZ right | 227 | 114 | 50.2% |
| NZ left (att.) | 20 | 10 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Centre | 231 | 127 | 55.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 34 | 21 | 61.8% |
| NZ right (def.) | 44 | 28 | 63.6% |
| DZ left | 118 | 52 | 44.1% |
| DZ right | 294 | 158 | 53.7% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R43.3%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L43.7%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R44.3%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L44.7%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R44.8%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L44.9%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L64.6%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L64.3%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L63.2%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L61.6%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L61.3%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R61.0%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 60.0% 45 | 57.6% 33 | 100.0% 5 | 42.9% 7 | 66.7% 15 | 58.3% 12 | 55.6% 18 | 60.7% 28 | 62.5% 8 |
| 2025-26 | 52.5% 1094 | 53.9% 894 | 46.7% 45 | 45.8% 155 | 50.5% 327 | 56.1% 355 | 51.0% 412 | 53.0% 591 | 49.3% 272 |
| 2024-25 | 52.0% 1056 | 52.9% 870 | 53.5% 43 | 46.2% 143 | 46.3% 281 | 57.2% 353 | 51.4% 422 | 51.7% 563 | 48.5% 262 |
| 2023-24 | 49.3% 1112 | 50.9% 913 | 59.0% 39 | 37.5% 160 | 51.4% 350 | 51.9% 393 | 44.4% 369 | 49.0% 577 | 45.2% 272 |
| Playoffs (all) | 52.2% 268 | 50.2% 233 | 73.3% 15 | 60.0% 20 | 57.1% 77 | 50.5% 99 | 50.0% 92 | 54.2% 142 | 43.6% 55 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby | 27–25 | 51.9% | 48.4% | 48.7% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Bo Horvat | 22–28 | 44.0% | 46.9% | 46.6% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Sebastian Aho | 25–24 | 51.0% | 50.5% | 50.5% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Dylan Larkin | 19–23 | 45.2% | 49.0% | 48.7% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Auston Matthews | 14–27 | 34.1% | 45.2% | 44.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Adam Fantilli | 21–14 | 60.0% | 54.9% | 55.3% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Dylan Strome | 17–18 | 48.6% | 47.7% | 47.8% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Nick Suzuki | 16–17 | 48.5% | 50.7% | 50.5% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Elias Lindholm | 18–14 | 56.3% | 48.7% | 49.2% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Elias Pettersson | 15–16 | 48.4% | 55.1% | 54.7% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Nico Hischier | 12–19 | 38.7% | 45.9% | 45.5% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Sean Couturier | 11–19 | 36.7% | 46.2% | 45.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.0) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | @ DET | 10 | 17 | 58.8% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs TBL | 8 | 12 | 66.7% |
| 2026-09-29 | @ BOS | 9 | 16 | 56.3% |
| 2026-04-15 | @ TBL | 11 | 16 | 68.8% |
| 2026-04-13 | @ FLA | 10 | 13 | 76.9% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ DAL | 4 | 12 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-08 | vs BUF | 4 | 9 | 44.4% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs WSH | 7 | 13 | 53.8% |
| 2026-04-04 | vs DET | 7 | 15 | 46.7% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs MTL | 8 | 10 | 80.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs UTA likely opponents: Vincent Trocheck (48%), Kevin Stenlund (52%)8.4 FOW 4–13
- 2026-10-06 vs NYI likely opponents: Bo Horvat (47%), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (47%)7.3 FOW 3–11
- 2026-10-09 vs WSH likely opponents: Dylan Strome (47%), Boone Jenner (49%)7.8 FOW 4–12
- 2026-10-11 vs VAN likely opponents: Elias Pettersson (56%), Aatu Räty (44%)7.9 FOW 4–12
FAQ
What is Mika Zibanejad's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Mika Zibanejad's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Mika Zibanejad win tonight?
When Mika Zibanejad has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Mika Zibanejad better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.