Draw Duel
Jack Hughes faceoff stats, 2025-26
NJD · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
37.1%
90%: 34.8%–39.6% vs an average regular, on 1,421 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
34.8%
145 won of 417 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
36.5% / 19.4%
208 strong-side, 103 weak-side draws this season
Next game
4.1 FOW
2026-10-06 vs UTA: 10 draws at 39.1%, range 1–7
Where Hughes wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 147 | 54 | 36.7% |
| OZ right | 28 | 4 | 14.3% |
| NZ left (att.) | 16 | 8 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 12 | 3 | 25.0% |
| Centre | 106 | 49 | 46.2% |
| NZ left (def.) | 15 | 4 | 26.7% |
| NZ right (def.) | 10 | 2 | 20.0% |
| DZ left | 30 | 10 | 33.3% |
| DZ right | 53 | 11 | 20.8% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R29.3%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L30.1%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R30.2%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R30.7%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L30.9%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L31.1%
Easiest
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L49.6%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L48.5%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L46.8%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L46.5%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R46.3%
- Hendrix Lapierre PIT · L45.9%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 20.0% 20 | 23.5% 17 | 0.0% 3 | — 0 | 25.0% 12 | 16.7% 6 | 0.0% 2 | 25.0% 12 | 0.0% 4 |
| 2025-26 | 34.8% 417 | 35.2% 401 | 11.1% 9 | 42.9% 7 | 33.1% 175 | 41.5% 159 | 25.3% 83 | 36.5% 208 | 19.4% 103 |
| 2024-25 | 37.6% 667 | 37.9% 623 | 33.3% 33 | 36.4% 11 | 40.6% 308 | 33.2% 229 | 38.5% 130 | 43.3% 319 | 33.2% 214 |
| 2023-24 | 37.2% 317 | 35.6% 281 | 50.0% 36 | — 0 | 44.2% 172 | 29.1% 110 | 28.6% 35 | 41.3% 179 | 29.4% 68 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Cates | 16–23 | 41.0% | 42.5% | 42.4% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Sebastian Aho | 7–29 | 19.4% | 36.4% | 35.3% | unusual (z -2.1) |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois | 13–14 | 48.1% | 38.2% | 38.7% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Mika Zibanejad | 10–17 | 37.0% | 35.2% | 35.3% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Phillip Danault | 8–13 | 38.1% | 32.8% | 33.0% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 9–10 | 47.4% | 37.6% | 38.0% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 4–15 | 21.1% | 30.0% | 29.7% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Sam Bennett | 8–10 | 44.4% | 40.7% | 40.8% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Anton Lundell | 7–10 | 41.2% | 35.8% | 36.0% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Andrew Copp | 5–12 | 29.4% | 35.1% | 34.9% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Anthony Cirelli | 6–10 | 37.5% | 34.7% | 34.8% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Brock Nelson | 8–8 | 50.0% | 39.0% | 39.4% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ NYI | 1 | 6 | 16.7% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs PHI | 3 | 14 | 21.4% |
| 2026-04-14 | @ BOS | 0 | 13 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-12 | vs OTT | 2 | 8 | 25.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ DET | 5 | 13 | 38.5% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs PIT | 2 | 11 | 18.2% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs PHI | 5 | 14 | 35.7% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ MTL | 1 | 6 | 16.7% |
| 2026-04-04 | vs MTL | 5 | 12 | 41.7% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs WSH | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs UTA likely opponents: Vincent Trocheck (31%), Kevin Stenlund (34%)4.1 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-10 vs VAN likely opponents: Elias Pettersson (44%), Aatu Räty (33%)4.1 FOW 1–7
FAQ
What is Jack Hughes's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Jack Hughes's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Jack Hughes win tonight?
When Jack Hughes has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Jack Hughes better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.