Draw Duel
Brock Nelson faceoff stats, 2025-26
COL · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
49.2%
90%: 47.7%–50.8% vs an average regular, on 3,899 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
50.4%
735 won of 1459 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
52.9% / 45.0%
773 strong-side, 449 weak-side draws this season
Next game
8.3 FOW
2026-10-07 vs WPG: 16 draws at 51.7%, range 4–13
Where Nelson wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 438 | 230 | 52.5% |
| OZ right | 86 | 43 | 50.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 40 | 23 | 57.5% |
| NZ right (att.) | 35 | 16 | 45.7% |
| Centre | 237 | 124 | 52.3% |
| NZ left (def.) | 40 | 20 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 36 | 11 | 30.6% |
| DZ left | 255 | 136 | 53.3% |
| DZ right | 292 | 132 | 45.2% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R40.5%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L41.1%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R41.6%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R42.1%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L42.1%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L42.4%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L61.9%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L61.6%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L60.6%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L58.9%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L58.6%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R58.5%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 40.6% 32 | 38.1% 21 | 50.0% 2 | 44.4% 9 | 33.3% 6 | 46.2% 13 | 38.5% 13 | 60.0% 15 | 18.2% 11 |
| 2025-26 | 50.4% 1459 | 50.4% 1031 | 58.2% 201 | 43.2% 227 | 52.1% 524 | 50.0% 388 | 49.0% 547 | 52.9% 773 | 45.0% 449 |
| 2024-25 | 52.1% 1209 | 51.3% 1002 | 58.7% 126 | 51.9% 81 | 52.3% 476 | 53.4% 348 | 50.6% 385 | 56.9% 569 | 45.4% 436 |
| 2023-24 | 45.2% 787 | 46.1% 735 | 34.5% 29 | 30.4% 23 | 43.4% 288 | 46.7% 287 | 45.8% 212 | 51.1% 364 | 38.3% 264 |
| Playoffs (all) | 47.6% 412 | 47.7% 346 | 50.0% 12 | 46.3% 54 | 43.8% 121 | 48.8% 121 | 49.4% 170 | 50.8% 195 | 45.0% 131 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anze Kopitar | 17–53 | 24.3% | 43.1% | 40.8% | unusual (z -3.2) |
| Quinton Byfield | 18–34 | 34.6% | 54.7% | 52.8% | unusual (z -2.9) |
| Wyatt Johnston | 23–29 | 44.2% | 51.1% | 50.4% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| John Tavares | 15–37 | 28.8% | 42.0% | 40.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.9) |
| Michael McCarron | 20–29 | 40.8% | 45.8% | 45.4% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Ryan Hartman | 26–21 | 55.3% | 53.7% | 53.9% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Mark Scheifele | 23–22 | 51.1% | 52.4% | 52.3% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Roope Hintz | 14–30 | 31.8% | 45.4% | 44.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.8) |
| Robert Thomas | 22–21 | 51.2% | 47.8% | 48.1% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Tomas Hertl | 20–22 | 47.6% | 42.5% | 42.9% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Jordan Staal | 20–19 | 51.3% | 44.0% | 44.5% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Jason Dickinson | 22–16 | 57.9% | 50.6% | 51.2% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs STL | 10 | 18 | 55.6% |
| 2026-09-30 | vs LAK | 3 | 14 | 21.4% |
| 2026-05-26 | @ VGK | 8 | 18 | 44.4% |
| 2026-05-24 | @ VGK | 8 | 14 | 57.1% |
| 2026-05-22 | vs VGK | 9 | 17 | 52.9% |
| 2026-05-20 | vs VGK | 6 | 15 | 40.0% |
| 2026-05-13 | vs MIN | 4 | 13 | 30.8% |
| 2026-05-11 | @ MIN | 16 | 24 | 66.7% |
| 2026-05-09 | @ MIN | 11 | 17 | 64.7% |
| 2026-05-05 | vs MIN | 12 | 14 | 85.7% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-07 vs WPG likely opponents: Adam Lowry (48%), Jonathan Toews (43%)8.3 FOW 4–13
- 2026-10-08 vs CGY likely opponents: Mikael Backlund (50%), Morgan Frost (49%)8.6 FOW 4–13
- 2026-10-10 vs TOR likely opponents: John Tavares (44%), Auston Matthews (44%)7.8 FOW 3–12
FAQ
What is Brock Nelson's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Brock Nelson's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Brock Nelson win tonight?
When Brock Nelson has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Brock Nelson better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.