Draw Duel
Mark Scheifele faceoff stats, 2025-26
WPG · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
47.1%
90%: 45.5%–48.7% vs an average regular, on 4,068 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
46.7%
594 won of 1273 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
47.4% / 49.6%
777 strong-side, 272 weak-side draws this season
Next game
4.9 FOW
2026-10-04 vs DET: 10 draws at 50.3%, range 2–8
Where Scheifele wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 168 | 89 | 53.0% |
| OZ right | 467 | 209 | 44.8% |
| NZ left (att.) | 29 | 16 | 55.2% |
| NZ right (att.) | 38 | 15 | 39.5% |
| Centre | 224 | 91 | 40.6% |
| NZ left (def.) | 25 | 14 | 56.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 48 | 28 | 58.3% |
| DZ left | 50 | 16 | 32.0% |
| DZ right | 224 | 116 | 51.8% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R38.7%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L38.9%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R39.6%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L40.0%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R40.1%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L40.2%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L60.1%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L59.7%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L58.6%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L56.9%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L56.6%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R56.4%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 58.3% 12 | 60.0% 10 | — 0 | 50.0% 2 | 60.0% 5 | 50.0% 6 | 100.0% 1 | 40.0% 5 | 66.7% 3 |
| 2025-26 | 46.7% 1273 | 46.2% 1016 | 48.7% 197 | 48.3% 60 | 46.9% 635 | 45.1% 364 | 48.2% 274 | 47.4% 777 | 49.6% 272 |
| 2024-25 | 49.4% 1268 | 48.7% 981 | 53.2% 250 | 43.2% 37 | 53.9% 666 | 45.9% 318 | 43.0% 284 | 51.9% 780 | 47.1% 293 |
| 2023-24 | 48.1% 1253 | 48.1% 1045 | 48.6% 181 | 44.4% 27 | 48.1% 613 | 46.4% 319 | 49.8% 321 | 50.7% 714 | 43.6% 330 |
| Playoffs (all) | 49.6% 262 | 48.8% 201 | 52.0% 50 | 54.5% 11 | 52.7% 131 | 46.3% 82 | 46.9% 49 | 56.4% 149 | 38.1% 63 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Thomas | 30–46 | 39.5% | 44.3% | 43.7% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Mikael Backlund | 32–24 | 57.1% | 46.2% | 47.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.6) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 24–30 | 44.4% | 44.9% | 44.9% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Brock Nelson | 22–23 | 48.9% | 47.6% | 47.7% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Roope Hintz | 21–21 | 50.0% | 43.8% | 44.3% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Jason Dickinson | 22–19 | 53.7% | 46.0% | 46.5% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
| Matt Duchene | 21–20 | 51.2% | 46.8% | 47.1% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Radek Faksa | 21–19 | 52.5% | 43.3% | 44.0% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| Wyatt Johnston | 14–24 | 36.8% | 46.6% | 45.9% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Matty Beniers | 21–16 | 56.8% | 50.2% | 50.6% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Sam Steel | 26–11 | 70.3% | 47.9% | 49.4% | unusual (z 2.7) |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 14–23 | 37.8% | 43.6% | 43.2% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | vs BOS | 7 | 12 | 58.3% |
| 2026-04-16 | vs SJS | 6 | 15 | 40.0% |
| 2026-04-14 | @ UTA | 6 | 11 | 54.5% |
| 2026-04-13 | @ VGK | 5 | 12 | 41.7% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs PHI | 3 | 11 | 27.3% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ STL | 5 | 8 | 62.5% |
| 2026-04-06 | vs SEA | 6 | 14 | 42.9% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ CBJ | 4 | 15 | 26.7% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ DAL | 5 | 14 | 35.7% |
| 2026-03-31 | @ CHI | 9 | 13 | 69.2% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs DET likely opponents: Andrew Copp (44%), J.T. Compher (50%)4.9 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-05 vs PIT likely opponents: Sidney Crosby (42%), Ben Kindel (56%)4.8 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-07 vs COL likely opponents: Brock Nelson (48%), Nathan MacKinnon (51%)5.0 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-09 vs ANA likely opponents: Tim Washe (41%), Mikael Granlund (50%)4.7 FOW 2–8
FAQ
What is Mark Scheifele's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Mark Scheifele's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Mark Scheifele win tonight?
When Mark Scheifele has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Mark Scheifele better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.