Draw Duel
Sam Steel faceoff stats, 2025-26
DAL · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
48.3%
90%: 45.4%–51.1% vs an average regular, on 1,101 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
50.6%
129 won of 255 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
53.6% / 39.4%
166 strong-side, 33 weak-side draws this season
Next game
0.8 FOW
2026-10-05 vs SJS: 1 draws at 54.9%, range 0–2
Where Steel wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 68 | 35 | 51.5% |
| OZ right | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 10 | 7 | 70.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Centre | 56 | 27 | 48.2% |
| NZ left (def.) | 20 | 12 | 60.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| DZ left | 68 | 35 | 51.5% |
| DZ right | 19 | 8 | 42.1% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R39.6%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L40.2%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R40.6%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R41.1%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L41.2%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L41.4%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L61.0%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L60.7%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L59.7%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L57.9%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L57.6%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R57.6%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 100.0% 1 | 100.0% 1 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | 100.0% 1 | — 0 | 100.0% 1 | — 0 |
| 2025-26 | 50.6% 255 | 52.2% 203 | 71.4% 7 | 40.0% 45 | 51.3% 76 | 51.1% 92 | 49.4% 87 | 53.6% 166 | 39.4% 33 |
| 2024-25 | 53.5% 400 | 56.9% 320 | 71.4% 7 | 37.0% 73 | 54.0% 100 | 54.6% 152 | 52.0% 148 | 54.5% 266 | 42.2% 45 |
| 2023-24 | 45.0% 209 | 44.6% 177 | 66.7% 3 | 44.8% 29 | 43.5% 46 | 42.7% 75 | 47.7% 88 | 52.1% 119 | 32.7% 52 |
| Playoffs (all) | 50.8% 236 | 52.8% 178 | — 0 | 44.8% 58 | 40.0% 35 | 53.1% 81 | 52.5% 120 | 51.6% 155 | 56.3% 32 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | 13–25 | 34.2% | 49.7% | 48.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.9) |
| Mark Scheifele | 11–26 | 29.7% | 52.1% | 50.6% | unusual (z -2.7) |
| Morgan Barron | 10–5 | 66.7% | 52.4% | 52.8% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Adam Henrique | 6–9 | 40.0% | 48.2% | 47.9% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Ryan Hartman | 8–7 | 53.3% | 54.0% | 53.9% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Nick Suzuki | 5–8 | 38.5% | 49.1% | 48.8% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Vladislav Namestnikov | 10–3 | 76.9% | 58.8% | 59.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Charlie Coyle | 11–2 | 84.6% | 48.5% | 49.4% | unusual (z 2.6) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 8–4 | 66.7% | 42.8% | 43.4% | a bit unusual (z 1.7) |
| Mason McTavish | 7–4 | 63.6% | 53.4% | 53.6% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Macklin Celebrini | 4–6 | 40.0% | 50.6% | 50.4% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Frederick Gaudreau | 7–3 | 70.0% | 53.0% | 53.4% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ NSH | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-28 | vs MIN | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-25 | @ MIN | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-22 | @ MIN | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-20 | vs MIN | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-18 | vs MIN | 5 | 10 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-15 | @ BUF | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ MIN | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| 2026-03-18 | @ COL | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-14 | vs DET | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-05 vs SJS likely opponents: Alexander Wennberg (56%), Macklin Celebrini (54%)0.8 FOW 0–2
- 2026-10-08 vs BUF likely opponents: Josh Norris (50%), Ryan McLeod (51%)0.8 FOW 0–2
- 2026-10-10 vs PIT likely opponents: Sidney Crosby (44%), Ben Kindel (54%)0.8 FOW 0–2
FAQ
What is Sam Steel's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Sam Steel's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Sam Steel win tonight?
When Sam Steel has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Sam Steel better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.