Draw Duel
Mason McTavish faceoff stats, 2025-26
STL · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
48.4%
90%: 46.4%–50.3% vs an average regular, on 2,656 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
48.6%
373 won of 768 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
56.0% / 37.8%
386 strong-side, 230 weak-side draws this season
Next game
2.9 FOW
2026-10-04 vs FLA: 6 draws at 51.0%, range 1–5
Where McTavish wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 246 | 128 | 52.0% |
| OZ right | 95 | 31 | 32.6% |
| NZ left (att.) | 33 | 25 | 75.8% |
| NZ right (att.) | 16 | 4 | 25.0% |
| Centre | 152 | 70 | 46.1% |
| NZ left (def.) | 26 | 18 | 69.2% |
| NZ right (def.) | 15 | 8 | 53.3% |
| DZ left | 81 | 45 | 55.6% |
| DZ right | 104 | 44 | 42.3% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R39.7%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L40.4%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R40.7%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R41.2%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L41.4%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L41.6%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L61.1%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L60.8%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L59.8%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L58.0%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L57.7%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R57.7%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 51.5% 33 | 48.3% 29 | 75.0% 4 | — 0 | 57.1% 14 | 42.9% 14 | 60.0% 5 | 63.2% 19 | 22.2% 9 |
| 2025-26 | 48.6% 768 | 47.2% 652 | 57.3% 110 | 33.3% 6 | 46.6% 341 | 51.7% 242 | 48.1% 185 | 56.0% 386 | 37.8% 230 |
| 2024-25 | 50.7% 961 | 51.1% 769 | 50.6% 178 | 28.6% 14 | 50.3% 394 | 53.5% 254 | 48.9% 313 | 53.8% 481 | 44.8% 310 |
| 2023-24 | 51.7% 845 | 51.3% 725 | 55.8% 113 | 28.6% 7 | 50.8% 325 | 58.2% 273 | 45.7% 247 | 53.0% 383 | 46.9% 275 |
| Playoffs (all) | 51.0% 49 | 53.3% 30 | 47.4% 19 | — 0 | 52.4% 42 | 33.3% 3 | 50.0% 4 | 53.6% 28 | 50.0% 20 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Staal | 13–17 | 43.3% | 43.5% | 43.5% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Frederick Gaudreau | 16–13 | 55.2% | 52.8% | 52.9% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 12–17 | 41.4% | 49.9% | 49.5% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Brock Nelson | 13–16 | 44.8% | 48.7% | 48.5% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Jack Eichel | 11–15 | 42.3% | 52.1% | 51.6% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Ty Dellandrea | 10–15 | 40.0% | 48.5% | 48.1% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Alexander Wennberg | 13–11 | 54.2% | 53.1% | 53.1% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Quinton Byfield | 11–13 | 45.8% | 55.9% | 55.5% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Anze Kopitar | 12–12 | 50.0% | 43.0% | 43.3% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Mikael Backlund | 11–13 | 45.8% | 49.1% | 49.0% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Matty Beniers | 8–15 | 34.8% | 50.6% | 49.9% | a bit unusual (z -1.5) |
| Phillip Danault | 12–9 | 57.1% | 47.6% | 48.0% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ COL | 12 | 18 | 66.7% |
| 2026-10-02 | @ DAL | 5 | 15 | 33.3% |
| 2026-05-14 | vs VGK | 2 | 7 | 28.6% |
| 2026-05-12 | @ VGK | 1 | 4 | 25.0% |
| 2026-05-10 | vs VGK | 6 | 11 | 54.5% |
| 2026-05-04 | @ VGK | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-30 | vs EDM | 5 | 5 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-28 | @ EDM | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-26 | vs EDM | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
| 2026-04-24 | vs EDM | 3 | 4 | 75.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs FLA likely opponents: Anton Lundell (49%), Aleksander Barkov (46%)2.9 FOW 1–5
- 2026-10-06 vs CHI likely opponents: Frank Nazar (52%), Anton Frondell (67%)8.5 FOW 4–13
- 2026-10-07 vs EDM likely opponents: Leon Draisaitl (47%), Owen Michaels (58%)3.2 FOW 1–6
- 2026-10-08 vs SJS likely opponents: Alexander Wennberg (55%), Macklin Celebrini (53%)7.8 FOW 4–12
- 2026-10-09 vs WPG likely opponents: Adam Lowry (47%), Jonathan Toews (43%)2.9 FOW 1–5
- 2026-10-10 vs CBJ likely opponents: Charlie Coyle (48%), Adam Fantilli (54%)7.4 FOW 3–12
- 2026-10-10 vs CGY likely opponents: Mikael Backlund (50%), Morgan Frost (48%)3.0 FOW 1–5
FAQ
What is Mason McTavish's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Mason McTavish's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Mason McTavish win tonight?
When Mason McTavish has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Mason McTavish better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.