Draw Duel
Frederick Gaudreau faceoff stats, 2025-26
SEA · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
46.0%
90%: 44.0%–48.0% vs an average regular, on 2,402 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
43.5%
296 won of 681 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
43.6% / 44.9%
505 strong-side, 89 weak-side draws this season
Next game
5.9 FOW
2026-10-04 vs CGY: 12 draws at 48.8%, range 2–9
Where Gaudreau wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 12 | 3 | 25.0% |
| OZ right | 100 | 43 | 43.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 10 | 5 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 11 | 4 | 36.4% |
| Centre | 87 | 36 | 41.4% |
| NZ left (def.) | 14 | 6 | 42.9% |
| NZ right (def.) | 20 | 5 | 25.0% |
| DZ left | 53 | 26 | 49.1% |
| DZ right | 374 | 168 | 44.9% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R37.7%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L37.9%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R38.6%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L39.0%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R39.1%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L39.2%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L59.0%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L58.7%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L57.6%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L55.9%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L55.5%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R55.3%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 47.6% 21 | 50.0% 18 | — 0 | 33.3% 3 | 100.0% 5 | 42.9% 7 | 22.2% 9 | 57.1% 14 | 0.0% 2 |
| 2025-26 | 43.5% 681 | 45.3% 512 | 30.4% 23 | 39.0% 146 | 41.1% 112 | 39.4% 142 | 45.4% 427 | 43.6% 505 | 44.9% 89 |
| 2024-25 | 48.2% 1097 | 49.2% 858 | 39.0% 41 | 46.0% 198 | 46.6% 296 | 48.3% 323 | 49.2% 478 | 49.8% 614 | 45.8% 286 |
| 2023-24 | 49.9% 547 | 49.0% 408 | 68.0% 25 | 49.1% 114 | 46.1% 128 | 47.8% 138 | 52.7% 281 | 49.7% 344 | 51.6% 124 |
| Playoffs (all) | 39.3% 56 | 44.4% 45 | 0.0% 1 | 20.0% 10 | 20.0% 10 | 47.6% 21 | 40.0% 25 | 40.7% 27 | 38.1% 21 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Hertl | 17–35 | 32.7% | 41.7% | 40.9% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Quinton Byfield | 14–16 | 46.7% | 50.3% | 50.1% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Morgan Frost | 14–16 | 46.7% | 43.7% | 43.9% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Anze Kopitar | 10–20 | 33.3% | 39.7% | 39.4% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Mason McTavish | 13–16 | 44.8% | 47.2% | 47.1% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Elias Pettersson | 16–11 | 59.3% | 49.1% | 49.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Jack Eichel | 12–14 | 46.2% | 50.3% | 50.1% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Brock Nelson | 11–14 | 44.0% | 47.4% | 47.2% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 12–12 | 50.0% | 47.4% | 47.5% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 7–17 | 29.2% | 43.0% | 42.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Nico Hischier | 7–16 | 30.4% | 40.2% | 39.8% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Dylan Strome | 11–11 | 50.0% | 42.2% | 42.5% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ EDM | 4 | 10 | 40.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ CGY | 6 | 11 | 54.5% |
| 2026-04-16 | @ COL | 5 | 11 | 45.5% |
| 2026-04-15 | @ VGK | 8 | 13 | 61.5% |
| 2026-04-13 | vs LAK | 8 | 15 | 53.3% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs CGY | 7 | 16 | 43.8% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs VGK | 7 | 15 | 46.7% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ MIN | 5 | 13 | 38.5% |
| 2026-04-06 | @ WPG | 5 | 11 | 45.5% |
| 2026-04-04 | vs CHI | 4 | 6 | 66.7% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs CGY likely opponents: Mikael Backlund (46%), Morgan Frost (44%)5.9 FOW 2–9
- 2026-10-06 vs VGK likely opponents: Jack Eichel (51%), William Karlsson (43%)5.8 FOW 2–9
- 2026-10-09 vs DET likely opponents: Andrew Copp (43%), J.T. Compher (49%)5.9 FOW 2–10
- 2026-10-11 vs WSH likely opponents: Dylan Strome (41%), Boone Jenner (42%)5.6 FOW 2–9
FAQ
What is Frederick Gaudreau's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Frederick Gaudreau's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Frederick Gaudreau win tonight?
When Frederick Gaudreau has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Frederick Gaudreau better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.