Draw Duel
Calum Ritchie faceoff stats, 2025-26
NYI · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
40.7%
90%: 37.3%–44.3% vs an average regular, on 330 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
36.8%
114 won of 310 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
37.1% / 40.3%
170 strong-side, 77 weak-side draws this season
Next game
0.9 FOW
2026-10-06 vs NYR: 2 draws at 39.4%, range 0–2
Where Ritchie wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 36 | 16 | 44.4% |
| OZ right | 77 | 28 | 36.4% |
| NZ left (att.) | 8 | 1 | 12.5% |
| NZ right (att.) | 20 | 6 | 30.0% |
| Centre | 63 | 20 | 31.7% |
| NZ left (def.) | 18 | 9 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 20 | 8 | 40.0% |
| DZ left | 15 | 5 | 33.3% |
| DZ right | 53 | 21 | 39.6% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R32.8%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L33.0%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R33.7%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L34.0%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R34.1%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L34.2%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L53.7%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L53.4%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L52.2%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L50.5%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L50.2%
- Hendrix Lapierre PIT · L49.6%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 38.5% 13 | 30.0% 10 | 66.7% 3 | — 0 | 33.3% 3 | 100.0% 4 | 0.0% 6 | 30.0% 10 | 0.0% 1 |
| 2025-26 | 36.8% 310 | 36.5% 299 | 45.5% 11 | — 0 | 38.9% 113 | 34.1% 129 | 38.2% 68 | 37.1% 170 | 40.3% 77 |
| 2024-25 | 42.9% 7 | 33.3% 6 | 100.0% 1 | — 0 | 33.3% 6 | — 0 | 100.0% 1 | 42.9% 7 | — 0 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Glass | 6–7 | 46.2% | 42.4% | 42.5% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Evan Rodrigues | 4–8 | 33.3% | 45.5% | 45.2% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Connor McMichael | 8–3 | 72.7% | 46.2% | 46.8% | a bit unusual (z 1.8) |
| Anton Lundell | 3–7 | 30.0% | 38.6% | 38.5% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Ryan Hartman | 4–6 | 40.0% | 44.7% | 44.7% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Yanni Gourde | 3–6 | 33.3% | 44.2% | 44.0% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Nico Hischier | 1–8 | 11.1% | 33.4% | 33.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Luke Glendening | 2–5 | 28.6% | 38.5% | 38.3% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Jack Drury | 3–4 | 42.9% | 33.5% | 33.7% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Andrew Copp | 2–5 | 28.6% | 38.3% | 38.2% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Kevin Stenlund | 2–5 | 28.6% | 38.2% | 38.1% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| J.T. Compher | 2–4 | 33.3% | 41.7% | 41.6% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs NJD | 3 | 7 | 42.9% |
| 2026-09-30 | @ TOR | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs OTT | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ CAR | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-03 | vs PHI | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-13 | vs LAK | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-07 | @ SJS | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-05 | @ LAK | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
| 2026-03-04 | @ ANA | 2 | 8 | 25.0% |
| 2026-03-01 | vs FLA | 5 | 13 | 38.5% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs NYR likely opponents: J.T. Miller (33%), Mika Zibanejad (40%)0.9 FOW 0–2
- 2026-10-08 vs CHI likely opponents: Frank Nazar (46%), Anton Frondell (58%)1.2 FOW 0–3
- 2026-10-10 vs TBL likely opponents: Anthony Cirelli (42%), Brayden Point (46%)1.1 FOW 0–2
FAQ
What is Calum Ritchie's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Calum Ritchie's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Calum Ritchie win tonight?
When Calum Ritchie has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Calum Ritchie better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.