Draw Duel
Jack Drury faceoff stats, 2025-26
NSH · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
56.9%
90%: 55.1%–58.8% vs an average regular, on 2,677 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
58.1%
563 won of 969 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
61.7% / 49.7%
413 strong-side, 370 weak-side draws this season
Next game
7.2 FOW
2026-10-06 vs TOR: 13 draws at 53.3%, range 3–11
Where Drury wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 161 | 88 | 54.7% |
| OZ right | 69 | 35 | 50.7% |
| NZ left (att.) | 29 | 19 | 65.5% |
| NZ right (att.) | 28 | 17 | 60.7% |
| Centre | 186 | 124 | 66.7% |
| NZ left (def.) | 28 | 17 | 60.7% |
| NZ right (def.) | 22 | 10 | 45.5% |
| DZ left | 195 | 131 | 67.2% |
| DZ right | 251 | 122 | 48.6% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R48.1%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L48.7%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R49.2%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R49.7%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L49.7%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L50.0%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L68.7%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L68.5%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L67.6%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L66.0%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R65.8%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L65.7%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 50.0% 26 | 54.5% 22 | — 0 | 25.0% 4 | 33.3% 3 | 70.0% 10 | 38.5% 13 | 72.7% 11 | 18.2% 11 |
| 2025-26 | 58.1% 969 | 60.3% 766 | 41.7% 12 | 50.3% 191 | 53.5% 230 | 63.8% 293 | 56.7% 446 | 61.7% 413 | 49.7% 370 |
| 2024-25 | 57.8% 746 | 57.9% 592 | 67.4% 46 | 52.8% 108 | 55.9% 222 | 55.8% 224 | 60.7% 300 | 60.6% 335 | 55.6% 279 |
| 2023-24 | 55.3% 664 | 54.7% 590 | 54.7% 53 | 71.4% 21 | 52.6% 272 | 60.1% 223 | 53.3% 169 | 57.4% 312 | 50.2% 223 |
| Playoffs (all) | 61.8% 272 | 64.6% 226 | 50.0% 2 | 47.7% 44 | 67.9% 56 | 67.9% 84 | 55.3% 132 | 65.5% 139 | 48.8% 80 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anze Kopitar | 17–23 | 42.5% | 49.7% | 49.2% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Roope Hintz | 14–17 | 45.2% | 51.7% | 51.4% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Ryan Hartman | 21–8 | 72.4% | 62.1% | 62.7% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Michael McCarron | 11–16 | 40.7% | 54.6% | 53.9% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Wyatt Johnston | 17–7 | 70.8% | 60.5% | 61.0% | a bit unusual (z 1.0) |
| Elias Lindholm | 10–14 | 41.7% | 52.0% | 51.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.0) |
| Elias Pettersson | 10–13 | 43.5% | 58.3% | 57.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Robert Thomas | 10–12 | 45.5% | 57.0% | 56.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Nic Dowd | 13–9 | 59.1% | 57.2% | 57.3% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Macklin Celebrini | 13–8 | 61.9% | 56.3% | 56.5% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Radek Faksa | 8–13 | 38.1% | 53.6% | 52.9% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Kevin Stenlund | 11–9 | 55.0% | 52.1% | 52.2% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs DAL | 7 | 13 | 53.8% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs MIN | 6 | 13 | 46.2% |
| 2026-05-26 | @ VGK | 4 | 9 | 44.4% |
| 2026-05-24 | @ VGK | 4 | 11 | 36.4% |
| 2026-05-22 | vs VGK | 6 | 7 | 85.7% |
| 2026-05-20 | vs VGK | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| 2026-05-13 | vs MIN | 11 | 19 | 57.9% |
| 2026-05-11 | @ MIN | 5 | 5 | 100.0% |
| 2026-05-09 | @ MIN | 5 | 5 | 100.0% |
| 2026-05-05 | vs MIN | 13 | 19 | 68.4% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs TOR likely opponents: John Tavares (51%), Auston Matthews (51%)7.2 FOW 3–11
- 2026-10-08 vs MTL likely opponents: Nick Suzuki (56%), Phillip Danault (56%)7.6 FOW 3–12
- 2026-10-10 vs OTT likely opponents: Claude Giroux (47%), Lars Eller (56%)7.6 FOW 3–12
FAQ
What is Jack Drury's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Jack Drury's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Jack Drury win tonight?
When Jack Drury has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Jack Drury better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.