Draw Duel
Robert Thomas faceoff stats, 2025-26
STL · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
52.4%
90%: 50.8%–54.1% vs an average regular, on 4,211 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
52.5%
547 won of 1042 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
52.9% / 52.7%
664 strong-side, 205 weak-side draws this season
Next game
9.8 FOW
2026-10-06 vs CHI: 16 draws at 61.2%, range 5–15
Where Thomas wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 71 | 41 | 57.7% |
| OZ right | 343 | 176 | 51.3% |
| NZ left (att.) | 12 | 9 | 75.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 24 | 16 | 66.7% |
| Centre | 173 | 88 | 50.9% |
| NZ left (def.) | 15 | 9 | 60.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 34 | 19 | 55.9% |
| DZ left | 107 | 49 | 45.8% |
| DZ right | 263 | 140 | 53.2% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R43.7%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L44.2%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R44.8%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L45.2%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R45.3%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L45.4%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L65.1%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L64.8%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L63.7%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L62.1%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L61.8%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R61.5%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 41.5% 41 | 30.8% 26 | 60.0% 5 | 60.0% 10 | 45.5% 11 | 37.5% 8 | 40.9% 22 | 44.8% 29 | 25.0% 8 |
| 2025-26 | 52.5% 1042 | 51.0% 783 | 60.9% 133 | 53.2% 126 | 52.4% 414 | 54.7% 258 | 51.1% 370 | 52.9% 664 | 52.7% 205 |
| 2024-25 | 54.8% 1338 | 55.3% 990 | 54.2% 190 | 52.5% 158 | 55.2% 513 | 56.5% 340 | 53.2% 485 | 54.3% 858 | 53.2% 252 |
| 2023-24 | 53.1% 1649 | 53.2% 1166 | 56.9% 262 | 48.4% 221 | 54.4% 608 | 53.5% 441 | 51.5% 600 | 52.7% 953 | 54.5% 400 |
| Playoffs (all) | 51.8% 141 | 53.8% 93 | 46.7% 30 | 50.0% 18 | 43.3% 60 | 50.0% 28 | 62.3% 53 | 50.5% 95 | 63.3% 30 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Scheifele | 46–30 | 60.5% | 55.7% | 56.3% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 32–39 | 45.1% | 48.7% | 48.2% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Adam Lowry | 30–38 | 44.1% | 47.5% | 47.1% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 23–36 | 39.0% | 53.8% | 52.2% | unusual (z -2.3) |
| Mikael Backlund | 29–21 | 58.0% | 51.0% | 51.6% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
| Jack Eichel | 26–23 | 53.1% | 55.4% | 55.2% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Brock Nelson | 21–22 | 48.8% | 52.2% | 51.9% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Elias Pettersson | 20–22 | 47.6% | 54.7% | 54.2% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Quinton Byfield | 20–17 | 54.1% | 56.2% | 56.0% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Nick Suzuki | 17–19 | 47.2% | 52.2% | 51.9% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 21–15 | 58.3% | 49.9% | 50.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.0) |
| Vladislav Namestnikov | 19–16 | 54.3% | 58.8% | 58.5% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ COL | 7 | 21 | 33.3% |
| 2026-10-02 | @ DAL | 10 | 20 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-16 | @ UTA | 9 | 19 | 47.4% |
| 2026-04-14 | vs PIT | 8 | 18 | 44.4% |
| 2026-04-13 | vs MIN | 9 | 15 | 60.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ CHI | 8 | 15 | 53.3% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs WPG | 7 | 9 | 77.8% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs COL | 13 | 25 | 52.0% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ COL | 7 | 14 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-03 | @ ANA | 13 | 24 | 54.2% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs CHI likely opponents: Frank Nazar (57%), Anton Frondell (68%)9.8 FOW 5–15
- 2026-10-08 vs SJS likely opponents: Alexander Wennberg (56%), Macklin Celebrini (55%)8.8 FOW 4–13
- 2026-10-10 vs CBJ likely opponents: Charlie Coyle (52%), Adam Fantilli (55%)8.5 FOW 4–13
FAQ
What is Robert Thomas's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Robert Thomas's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Robert Thomas win tonight?
When Robert Thomas has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Robert Thomas better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.