Draw Duel
Elias Pettersson faceoff stats, 2025-26
VAN · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
46.7%
90%: 45.0%–48.3% vs an average regular, on 3,290 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
47.5%
642 won of 1353 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
52.8% / 40.1%
670 strong-side, 434 weak-side draws this season
Next game
8.7 FOW
2026-10-04 vs VGK: 18 draws at 47.5%, range 4–13
Where Pettersson wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 448 | 241 | 53.8% |
| OZ right | 138 | 60 | 43.5% |
| NZ left (att.) | 19 | 9 | 47.4% |
| NZ right (att.) | 25 | 10 | 40.0% |
| Centre | 249 | 114 | 45.8% |
| NZ left (def.) | 24 | 8 | 33.3% |
| NZ right (def.) | 25 | 8 | 32.0% |
| DZ left | 179 | 96 | 53.6% |
| DZ right | 246 | 96 | 39.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R38.0%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L38.7%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R39.1%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R39.6%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L39.7%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L39.9%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L59.5%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L59.1%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L58.1%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L56.4%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L56.1%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R56.0%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 50.0% 72 | 48.9% 45 | 50.0% 16 | 54.5% 11 | 48.0% 25 | 43.5% 23 | 58.3% 24 | 50.0% 32 | 51.9% 27 |
| 2025-26 | 47.5% 1353 | 46.4% 950 | 55.5% 283 | 36.7% 120 | 51.4% 586 | 43.6% 342 | 45.2% 425 | 52.8% 670 | 40.1% 434 |
| 2024-25 | 47.5% 964 | 46.3% 790 | 53.1% 147 | 51.9% 27 | 51.3% 388 | 45.2% 272 | 44.7% 304 | 54.2% 496 | 36.9% 301 |
| 2023-24 | 50.8% 799 | 50.4% 698 | 63.2% 57 | 40.9% 44 | 53.7% 313 | 49.2% 240 | 48.8% 246 | 53.9% 408 | 45.6% 248 |
| Playoffs (all) | 50.0% 102 | 49.5% 91 | 66.7% 9 | 0.0% 2 | 60.5% 38 | 43.8% 32 | 43.8% 32 | 52.8% 53 | 50.0% 30 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Backlund | 31–26 | 54.4% | 47.8% | 48.5% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
| Connor McDavid | 21–27 | 43.8% | 46.6% | 46.4% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 17–26 | 39.5% | 42.5% | 42.3% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Robert Thomas | 22–20 | 52.4% | 45.3% | 45.8% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Wyatt Johnston | 20–17 | 54.1% | 49.5% | 49.8% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 19–15 | 55.9% | 47.8% | 48.3% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 15–18 | 45.5% | 41.7% | 41.9% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Sidney Crosby | 10–23 | 30.3% | 42.0% | 41.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Alexander Wennberg | 19–13 | 59.4% | 48.6% | 49.2% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 16–16 | 50.0% | 46.0% | 46.2% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Macklin Celebrini | 21–10 | 67.7% | 49.9% | 50.9% | a bit unusual (z 2.0) |
| Mika Zibanejad | 16–15 | 51.6% | 44.9% | 45.3% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs CGY | 11 | 22 | 50.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs EDM | 13 | 26 | 50.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | @ EDM | 12 | 24 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-16 | @ EDM | 4 | 13 | 30.8% |
| 2026-04-14 | vs LAK | 13 | 17 | 76.5% |
| 2026-04-12 | @ ANA | 6 | 15 | 40.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ SJS | 14 | 19 | 73.7% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ LAK | 4 | 18 | 22.2% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs VGK | 5 | 15 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-04 | vs UTA | 10 | 20 | 50.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs VGK likely opponents: Jack Eichel (50%), William Karlsson (46%)8.7 FOW 4–13
- 2026-10-08 vs CAR likely opponents: Jordan Staal (41%), Sebastian Aho (46%)8.3 FOW 4–13
- 2026-10-10 vs NJD likely opponents: Nico Hischier (43%), Evan Rodrigues (50%)8.6 FOW 4–13
- 2026-10-11 vs NYR likely opponents: J.T. Miller (40%), Mika Zibanejad (44%)8.0 FOW 4–12
FAQ
What is Elias Pettersson's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Elias Pettersson's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Elias Pettersson win tonight?
When Elias Pettersson has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Elias Pettersson better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.