Draw Duel
Connor McDavid faceoff stats, 2025-26
EDM · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
48.2%
90%: 46.5%–50.0% vs an average regular, on 3,261 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
49.5%
457 won of 923 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
57.3% / 41.4%
419 strong-side, 285 weak-side draws this season
Next game
5.7 FOW
2026-10-07 vs ANA: 11 draws at 51.0%, range 2–9
Where McDavid wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 271 | 150 | 55.4% |
| OZ right | 99 | 37 | 37.4% |
| NZ left (att.) | 23 | 11 | 47.8% |
| NZ right (att.) | 26 | 10 | 38.5% |
| Centre | 219 | 99 | 45.2% |
| NZ left (def.) | 25 | 17 | 68.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 21 | 13 | 61.9% |
| DZ left | 100 | 62 | 62.0% |
| DZ right | 139 | 58 | 41.7% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R39.5%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L40.3%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R40.6%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R41.1%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L41.3%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L41.5%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L60.9%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L60.6%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L59.6%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L57.9%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R57.6%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L57.6%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 48.7% 39 | 50.0% 32 | 0.0% 2 | 60.0% 5 | 61.5% 13 | 35.3% 17 | 55.6% 9 | 57.1% 14 | 70.0% 10 |
| 2025-26 | 49.5% 923 | 49.4% 789 | 50.0% 84 | 50.0% 50 | 50.5% 370 | 47.8% 314 | 50.2% 239 | 57.3% 419 | 41.4% 285 |
| 2024-25 | 47.7% 776 | 47.7% 715 | 51.9% 52 | 22.2% 9 | 49.3% 288 | 46.1% 282 | 47.6% 206 | 54.7% 322 | 38.6% 254 |
| 2023-24 | 51.1% 865 | 51.6% 803 | 50.0% 40 | 36.4% 22 | 54.7% 329 | 47.1% 295 | 51.0% 241 | 55.6% 383 | 47.1% 280 |
| Playoffs (all) | 45.9% 658 | 46.3% 592 | 47.5% 40 | 34.6% 26 | 46.3% 246 | 50.4% 258 | 37.7% 154 | 52.3% 264 | 32.2% 211 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel | 29–28 | 50.9% | 51.7% | 51.6% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Elias Pettersson | 27–21 | 56.3% | 53.4% | 53.6% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Aleksander Barkov | 19–20 | 48.7% | 42.6% | 43.0% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Anze Kopitar | 17–20 | 45.9% | 43.6% | 43.7% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Mikael Granlund | 20–17 | 54.1% | 50.6% | 50.8% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 16–17 | 48.5% | 49.2% | 49.2% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 14–19 | 42.4% | 43.7% | 43.6% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Roope Hintz | 16–15 | 51.6% | 43.5% | 44.0% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Ryan Poehling | 15–16 | 48.4% | 54.3% | 53.9% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 14–17 | 45.2% | 46.0% | 45.9% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 18–13 | 58.1% | 49.3% | 49.8% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
| Quinton Byfield | 18–12 | 60.0% | 53.1% | 53.5% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs SEA | 3 | 10 | 30.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ VAN | 4 | 13 | 30.8% |
| 2026-09-29 | vs VAN | 12 | 16 | 75.0% |
| 2026-04-30 | @ ANA | 2 | 8 | 25.0% |
| 2026-04-28 | vs ANA | 7 | 9 | 77.8% |
| 2026-04-26 | @ ANA | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
| 2026-04-24 | @ ANA | 3 | 11 | 27.3% |
| 2026-04-22 | vs ANA | 7 | 15 | 46.7% |
| 2026-04-20 | vs ANA | 8 | 14 | 57.1% |
| 2026-04-16 | vs VAN | 9 | 10 | 90.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-07 vs ANA likely opponents: Tim Washe (44%), Mikael Granlund (52%)5.7 FOW 2–9
- 2026-10-10 vs SJS likely opponents: Alexander Wennberg (54%), Macklin Celebrini (52%)5.8 FOW 2–9
FAQ
What is Connor McDavid's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Connor McDavid's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Connor McDavid win tonight?
When Connor McDavid has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Connor McDavid better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.