Draw Duel
Michael McCarron faceoff stats, 2025-26
MIN · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
52.8%
90%: 51.0%–54.6% vs an average regular, on 2,851 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
52.5%
522 won of 994 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
54.1% / 48.7%
575 strong-side, 234 weak-side draws this season
Next game
7.7 FOW
2026-10-06 vs BUF: 13 draws at 57.2%, range 4–12
Where McCarron wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 43 | 23 | 53.5% |
| OZ right | 102 | 39 | 38.2% |
| NZ left (att.) | 20 | 8 | 40.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 31 | 15 | 48.4% |
| Centre | 185 | 97 | 52.4% |
| NZ left (def.) | 24 | 12 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 31 | 18 | 58.1% |
| DZ left | 147 | 71 | 48.3% |
| DZ right | 411 | 239 | 58.2% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R44.1%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L44.5%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R45.2%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L45.6%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R45.7%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L45.8%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L65.4%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L65.1%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L64.1%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L62.4%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L62.2%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R61.9%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 62.5% 24 | 73.3% 15 | — 0 | 44.4% 9 | 50.0% 2 | 71.4% 7 | 60.0% 15 | 66.7% 18 | 33.3% 3 |
| 2025-26 | 52.5% 994 | 52.8% 754 | 28.6% 14 | 53.1% 226 | 42.8% 145 | 51.5% 291 | 55.6% 558 | 54.1% 575 | 48.7% 234 |
| 2024-25 | 54.4% 923 | 54.2% 756 | 55.6% 9 | 55.1% 158 | 53.1% 98 | 52.2% 341 | 56.2% 484 | 53.5% 458 | 57.2% 250 |
| 2023-24 | 53.2% 671 | 54.5% 618 | 42.1% 19 | 35.3% 34 | 45.4% 130 | 52.6% 274 | 57.7% 267 | 52.2% 314 | 59.5% 163 |
| Playoffs (all) | 53.6% 239 | 55.3% 190 | 50.0% 4 | 46.7% 45 | 46.7% 45 | 55.1% 78 | 55.2% 116 | 56.4% 140 | 44.9% 49 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Nelson | 29–20 | 59.2% | 54.2% | 54.6% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Matt Duchene | 25–15 | 62.5% | 53.9% | 54.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Nazem Kadri | 20–16 | 55.6% | 56.7% | 56.6% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Nicolas Roy | 14–18 | 43.8% | 52.3% | 51.8% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 16–14 | 53.3% | 49.4% | 49.6% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| John Tavares | 17–13 | 56.7% | 48.2% | 48.7% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 15–14 | 51.7% | 51.7% | 51.7% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Nick Schmaltz | 17–11 | 60.7% | 56.3% | 56.6% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Jack Drury | 16–11 | 59.3% | 45.4% | 46.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Radek Faksa | 14–13 | 51.9% | 50.1% | 50.2% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Gabriel Landeskog | 13–13 | 50.0% | 51.8% | 51.7% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Elias Pettersson | 15–10 | 60.0% | 56.7% | 56.9% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs BOS | 7 | 9 | 77.8% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ NSH | 8 | 15 | 53.3% |
| 2026-05-13 | @ COL | 15 | 24 | 62.5% |
| 2026-05-11 | vs COL | 9 | 16 | 56.3% |
| 2026-05-09 | vs COL | 6 | 15 | 40.0% |
| 2026-05-05 | @ COL | 8 | 20 | 40.0% |
| 2026-05-03 | @ COL | 16 | 22 | 72.7% |
| 2026-04-30 | vs DAL | 10 | 14 | 71.4% |
| 2026-04-28 | @ DAL | 6 | 12 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-25 | vs DAL | 3 | 7 | 42.9% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs BUF likely opponents: Josh Norris (52%), Ryan McLeod (53%)7.7 FOW 4–12
- 2026-10-08 vs TBL likely opponents: Anthony Cirelli (53%), Brayden Point (57%)7.3 FOW 3–11
- 2026-10-10 vs FLA likely opponents: Anton Lundell (51%), Aleksander Barkov (47%)6.9 FOW 3–11
FAQ
What is Michael McCarron's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Michael McCarron's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Michael McCarron win tonight?
When Michael McCarron has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Michael McCarron better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.