Draw Duel
Matt Duchene faceoff stats, 2025-26
DAL · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
49.7%
90%: 47.6%–51.8% vs an average regular, on 2,314 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
52.2%
266 won of 510 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
56.4% / 38.8%
330 strong-side, 85 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Duchene wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 207 | 127 | 61.4% |
| OZ right | 24 | 7 | 29.2% |
| NZ left (att.) | 14 | 6 | 42.9% |
| NZ right (att.) | 8 | 2 | 25.0% |
| Centre | 95 | 47 | 49.5% |
| NZ left (def.) | 23 | 10 | 43.5% |
| NZ right (def.) | 14 | 7 | 50.0% |
| DZ left | 86 | 43 | 50.0% |
| DZ right | 39 | 17 | 43.6% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R41.0%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L41.6%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R42.0%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R42.5%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L42.6%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L42.8%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L62.3%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L62.0%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L61.0%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L59.3%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L59.0%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R59.0%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 52.2% 510 | 50.5% 414 | 62.9% 89 | 14.3% 7 | 58.0% 231 | 46.8% 154 | 48.0% 125 | 56.4% 330 | 38.8% 85 |
| 2024-25 | 52.4% 840 | 53.0% 723 | 49.5% 101 | 43.8% 16 | 56.5% 315 | 49.8% 261 | 50.0% 264 | 54.4% 535 | 51.4% 140 |
| 2023-24 | 56.5% 637 | 56.5% 566 | 61.3% 62 | 22.2% 9 | 52.6% 249 | 64.0% 197 | 53.9% 191 | 55.7% 463 | 38.3% 47 |
| Playoffs (all) | 56.3% 327 | 57.9% 280 | 46.7% 45 | 50.0% 2 | 50.4% 133 | 63.5% 96 | 57.1% 98 | 55.4% 260 | 52.6% 19 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | 34–23 | 59.6% | 50.4% | 51.4% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Mark Scheifele | 25–28 | 47.2% | 53.2% | 52.6% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Michael McCarron | 16–26 | 38.1% | 46.1% | 45.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.0) |
| Ryan Hartman | 21–18 | 53.8% | 54.8% | 54.7% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 19–19 | 50.0% | 51.0% | 50.9% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Adam Henrique | 16–19 | 45.7% | 49.1% | 48.8% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Adam Lowry | 23–11 | 67.6% | 52.1% | 53.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.8) |
| Nicolas Roy | 14–20 | 41.2% | 52.0% | 51.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Brock Nelson | 18–15 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 53.4% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Jack Eichel | 21–11 | 65.6% | 53.3% | 54.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Brayden Schenn | 17–15 | 53.1% | 50.7% | 50.8% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Vladislav Namestnikov | 15–14 | 51.7% | 59.0% | 58.6% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | @ MIN | 3 | 7 | 42.9% |
| 2026-04-28 | vs MIN | 3 | 5 | 60.0% |
| 2026-04-25 | @ MIN | 3 | 8 | 37.5% |
| 2026-04-22 | @ MIN | 9 | 14 | 64.3% |
| 2026-04-20 | vs MIN | 4 | 9 | 44.4% |
| 2026-04-18 | vs MIN | 4 | 10 | 40.0% |
| 2026-04-15 | @ BUF | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
| 2026-04-13 | @ TOR | 8 | 11 | 72.7% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs NYR | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs MIN | 4 | 11 | 36.4% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Matt Duchene's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Matt Duchene's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Matt Duchene win tonight?
When Matt Duchene has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Matt Duchene better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.