Draw Duel
Nicolas Roy faceoff stats, 2025-26
COL · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
49.3%
90%: 47.3%–51.3% vs an average regular, on 2,527 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
52.3%
377 won of 721 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
48.1% / 60.8%
403 strong-side, 166 weak-side draws this season
Next game
3.1 FOW
2026-10-07 vs WPG: 6 draws at 49.9%, range 1–6
Where Roy wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 38 | 22 | 57.9% |
| OZ right | 113 | 52 | 46.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 20 | 13 | 65.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 25 | 15 | 60.0% |
| Centre | 152 | 82 | 53.9% |
| NZ left (def.) | 19 | 9 | 47.4% |
| NZ right (def.) | 28 | 10 | 35.7% |
| DZ left | 89 | 57 | 64.0% |
| DZ right | 237 | 117 | 49.4% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R40.7%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L41.1%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R41.7%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L42.2%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R42.2%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L42.4%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L62.2%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L61.8%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L60.8%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L59.1%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L58.8%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R58.6%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 46.2% 13 | 46.2% 13 | — 0 | — 0 | 50.0% 4 | 28.6% 7 | 100.0% 2 | 42.9% 7 | 100.0% 1 |
| 2025-26 | 52.3% 721 | 52.3% 589 | 50.0% 40 | 53.3% 92 | 49.0% 151 | 52.9% 244 | 53.4% 326 | 48.1% 403 | 60.8% 166 |
| 2024-25 | 47.7% 778 | 48.6% 679 | 48.0% 50 | 34.7% 49 | 49.5% 196 | 48.3% 292 | 45.9% 290 | 46.4% 442 | 48.9% 137 |
| 2023-24 | 46.8% 767 | 47.5% 617 | 39.6% 53 | 46.4% 97 | 42.9% 161 | 43.4% 272 | 51.5% 334 | 45.6% 487 | 57.1% 105 |
| Playoffs (all) | 44.8% 248 | 45.2% 230 | 25.0% 8 | 50.0% 10 | 38.2% 55 | 43.0% 93 | 50.0% 100 | 42.4% 165 | 48.3% 29 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anze Kopitar | 16–18 | 47.1% | 42.2% | 42.5% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Michael McCarron | 18–14 | 56.3% | 47.7% | 48.2% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
| Ryan Hartman | 19–11 | 63.3% | 52.8% | 53.4% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| Adam Henrique | 9–20 | 31.0% | 44.2% | 43.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 13–14 | 48.1% | 47.5% | 47.5% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Marco Rossi | 14–9 | 60.9% | 51.2% | 51.6% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 10–13 | 43.5% | 43.4% | 43.4% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Morgan Frost | 9–13 | 40.9% | 44.7% | 44.5% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Nico Hischier | 7–12 | 36.8% | 41.3% | 41.1% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Dylan Larkin | 5–14 | 26.3% | 44.2% | 43.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Frederick Gaudreau | 13–6 | 68.4% | 53.5% | 54.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Nic Dowd | 13–6 | 68.4% | 50.6% | 51.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.6) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs STL | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
| 2026-09-30 | vs LAK | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| 2026-05-26 | @ VGK | 1 | 4 | 25.0% |
| 2026-05-24 | @ VGK | 4 | 11 | 36.4% |
| 2026-05-22 | vs VGK | 7 | 9 | 77.8% |
| 2026-05-20 | vs VGK | 2 | 7 | 28.6% |
| 2026-05-13 | vs MIN | 1 | 4 | 25.0% |
| 2026-05-11 | @ MIN | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-09 | @ MIN | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| 2026-05-05 | vs MIN | 4 | 4 | 100.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-07 vs WPG likely opponents: Adam Lowry (44%), Jonathan Toews (38%)3.1 FOW 1–6
- 2026-10-08 vs CGY likely opponents: Mikael Backlund (47%), Morgan Frost (45%)3.1 FOW 1–6
- 2026-10-10 vs TOR likely opponents: John Tavares (43%), Auston Matthews (42%)2.9 FOW 0–5
FAQ
What is Nicolas Roy's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Nicolas Roy's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Nicolas Roy win tonight?
When Nicolas Roy has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Nicolas Roy better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.