Draw Duel
Morgan Frost faceoff stats, 2025-26
CGY · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
51.8%
90%: 50.0%–53.7% vs an average regular, on 2,936 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
56.8%
601 won of 1058 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
62.4% / 48.0%
625 strong-side, 269 weak-side draws this season
Next game
8.0 FOW
2026-10-04 vs SEA: 14 draws at 56.7%, range 4–12
Where Frost wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 451 | 277 | 61.4% |
| OZ right | 105 | 40 | 38.1% |
| NZ left (att.) | 33 | 24 | 72.7% |
| NZ right (att.) | 31 | 15 | 48.4% |
| Centre | 164 | 82 | 50.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 32 | 22 | 68.8% |
| NZ right (def.) | 14 | 7 | 50.0% |
| DZ left | 109 | 67 | 61.5% |
| DZ right | 119 | 67 | 56.3% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R43.0%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L43.7%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R44.1%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R44.6%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L44.7%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L44.9%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L64.2%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L63.9%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L63.0%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L61.3%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R61.0%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L61.0%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 63.6% 22 | 68.4% 19 | 33.3% 3 | — 0 | 53.3% 15 | 83.3% 6 | 100.0% 1 | 53.3% 15 | 80.0% 5 |
| 2025-26 | 56.8% 1058 | 55.5% 848 | 60.6% 198 | 83.3% 12 | 57.0% 556 | 54.7% 274 | 58.8% 228 | 62.4% 625 | 48.0% 269 |
| 2024-25 | 51.2% 1033 | 50.3% 825 | 54.9% 204 | 50.0% 4 | 51.1% 521 | 47.6% 290 | 56.3% 222 | 54.3% 565 | 45.9% 296 |
| 2023-24 | 49.5% 823 | 48.6% 704 | 55.7% 115 | 25.0% 4 | 52.0% 373 | 47.8% 278 | 46.5% 172 | 54.3% 414 | 42.1% 235 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Wennberg | 19–17 | 52.8% | 56.0% | 55.7% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Teddy Blueger | 20–15 | 57.1% | 53.9% | 54.1% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Brock Nelson | 20–15 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 54.7% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Quinton Byfield | 19–14 | 57.6% | 57.5% | 57.5% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Adam Henrique | 15–17 | 46.9% | 50.1% | 49.9% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 18–14 | 56.3% | 44.3% | 45.0% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Frederick Gaudreau | 16–14 | 53.3% | 56.3% | 56.1% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 18–9 | 66.7% | 52.8% | 53.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Ryan Poehling | 15–11 | 57.7% | 54.1% | 54.3% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 14–11 | 56.0% | 53.0% | 53.2% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Mika Zibanejad | 14–11 | 56.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 17–7 | 70.8% | 54.6% | 55.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.6) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ VAN | 7 | 13 | 53.8% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs SEA | 7 | 9 | 77.8% |
| 2026-04-16 | vs LAK | 8 | 15 | 53.3% |
| 2026-04-14 | vs COL | 12 | 19 | 63.2% |
| 2026-04-12 | vs UTA | 6 | 13 | 46.2% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ SEA | 7 | 15 | 46.7% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ COL | 9 | 15 | 60.0% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ DAL | 7 | 17 | 41.2% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ ANA | 8 | 12 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ VGK | 9 | 15 | 60.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs SEA likely opponents: Chandler Stephenson (55%), Matty Beniers (56%)8.0 FOW 4–12
- 2026-10-08 vs COL likely opponents: Brock Nelson (56%), Nathan MacKinnon (53%)8.0 FOW 4–12
- 2026-10-10 vs ANA likely opponents: Tim Washe (50%), Mikael Granlund (57%)7.9 FOW 4–12
FAQ
What is Morgan Frost's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Morgan Frost's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Morgan Frost win tonight?
When Morgan Frost has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Morgan Frost better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.