Draw Duel
Ryan Poehling faceoff stats, 2025-26
ANA · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
49.3%
90%: 47.4%–51.1% vs an average regular, on 2,832 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
48.4%
498 won of 1028 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
53.9% / 40.0%
380 strong-side, 450 weak-side draws this season
Next game
5.0 FOW
2026-10-04 vs FLA: 10 draws at 51.1%, range 2–8
Where Poehling wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 140 | 71 | 50.7% |
| OZ right | 65 | 19 | 29.2% |
| NZ left (att.) | 27 | 20 | 74.1% |
| NZ right (att.) | 26 | 8 | 30.8% |
| Centre | 198 | 113 | 57.1% |
| NZ left (def.) | 36 | 21 | 58.3% |
| NZ right (def.) | 33 | 14 | 42.4% |
| DZ left | 177 | 93 | 52.5% |
| DZ right | 326 | 139 | 42.6% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R40.5%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L41.2%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R41.6%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R42.1%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L42.2%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L42.5%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L61.9%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L61.6%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L60.6%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L58.9%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R58.6%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L58.5%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 11.1% 9 | 14.3% 7 | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 2 | 0.0% 3 | 25.0% 4 | 33.3% 3 | 0.0% 4 |
| 2025-26 | 48.4% 1028 | 50.8% 771 | 52.2% 23 | 40.2% 234 | 43.9% 205 | 55.0% 320 | 46.1% 503 | 53.9% 380 | 40.0% 450 |
| 2024-25 | 50.9% 737 | 52.6% 622 | 58.3% 12 | 39.8% 103 | 55.2% 134 | 51.9% 264 | 48.4% 339 | 57.1% 275 | 45.3% 285 |
| 2023-24 | 49.1% 938 | 50.4% 752 | 37.0% 27 | 45.3% 159 | 44.2% 231 | 51.6% 322 | 50.1% 385 | 56.6% 350 | 41.4% 384 |
| Playoffs (all) | 41.7% 120 | 42.5% 87 | 33.3% 6 | 40.7% 27 | 37.2% 43 | 54.5% 33 | 36.4% 44 | 50.0% 44 | 29.1% 55 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | 14–32 | 30.4% | 41.1% | 40.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.5) |
| John Tavares | 15–22 | 40.5% | 42.0% | 41.9% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Jack Eichel | 19–14 | 57.6% | 53.8% | 54.0% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Connor McDavid | 16–15 | 51.6% | 45.7% | 46.1% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Nick Suzuki | 8–20 | 28.6% | 51.4% | 50.2% | unusual (z -2.4) |
| Tomas Hertl | 10–18 | 35.7% | 41.7% | 41.4% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Morgan Frost | 11–15 | 42.3% | 45.9% | 45.7% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Vincent Trocheck | 11–13 | 45.8% | 42.9% | 43.0% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 8–15 | 34.8% | 51.4% | 50.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Dylan Strome | 8–14 | 36.4% | 42.4% | 42.1% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Nic Dowd | 5–17 | 22.7% | 49.6% | 48.5% | unusual (z -2.5) |
| Macklin Celebrini | 13–8 | 61.9% | 52.0% | 52.4% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | @ VGK | 1 | 9 | 11.1% |
| 2026-05-10 | vs VGK | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-08 | vs VGK | 4 | 13 | 30.8% |
| 2026-05-06 | @ VGK | 5 | 15 | 33.3% |
| 2026-05-04 | @ VGK | 4 | 9 | 44.4% |
| 2026-04-30 | vs EDM | 2 | 11 | 18.2% |
| 2026-04-28 | @ EDM | 5 | 17 | 29.4% |
| 2026-04-26 | vs EDM | 9 | 14 | 64.3% |
| 2026-04-24 | vs EDM | 7 | 16 | 43.8% |
| 2026-04-22 | @ EDM | 8 | 13 | 61.5% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs FLA likely opponents: Anton Lundell (49%), Aleksander Barkov (46%)5.0 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-07 vs EDM likely opponents: Leon Draisaitl (47%), Owen Michaels (59%)5.4 FOW 2–9
- 2026-10-09 vs WPG likely opponents: Adam Lowry (47%), Jonathan Toews (42%)4.9 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-10 vs CGY likely opponents: Mikael Backlund (50%), Morgan Frost (48%)5.1 FOW 2–8
FAQ
What is Ryan Poehling's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Ryan Poehling's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Ryan Poehling win tonight?
When Ryan Poehling has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Ryan Poehling better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.