Draw Duel
Evan Rodrigues faceoff stats, 2025-26
NJD · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
46.6%
90%: 44.3%–48.9% vs an average regular, on 1,340 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
47.0%
372 won of 791 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
47.7% / 40.2%
480 strong-side, 169 weak-side draws this season
Next game
8.8 FOW
2026-10-06 vs UTA: 18 draws at 49.0%, range 4–13
Where Rodrigues wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 60 | 26 | 43.3% |
| OZ right | 188 | 90 | 47.9% |
| NZ left (att.) | 21 | 9 | 42.9% |
| NZ right (att.) | 50 | 26 | 52.0% |
| Centre | 142 | 75 | 52.8% |
| NZ left (def.) | 24 | 10 | 41.7% |
| NZ right (def.) | 38 | 18 | 47.4% |
| DZ left | 64 | 23 | 35.9% |
| DZ right | 204 | 95 | 46.6% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R38.3%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L38.5%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R39.2%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L39.5%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R39.7%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L39.7%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L59.6%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L59.2%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L58.1%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L56.4%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L56.1%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R55.9%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 59.5% 37 | 63.6% 33 | 33.3% 3 | 0.0% 1 | 63.2% 19 | 62.5% 8 | 50.0% 10 | 60.9% 23 | 60.0% 10 |
| 2025-26 | 47.0% 791 | 48.1% 651 | 47.2% 72 | 36.8% 68 | 46.8% 248 | 50.2% 275 | 44.0% 268 | 47.7% 480 | 40.2% 169 |
| 2024-25 | 45.0% 282 | 45.6% 250 | 40.0% 30 | 50.0% 2 | 39.5% 129 | 56.5% 46 | 46.7% 107 | 45.1% 237 | 34.8% 23 |
| 2023-24 | 50.0% 58 | 51.2% 41 | 46.7% 15 | 50.0% 2 | 48.8% 41 | 33.3% 9 | 75.0% 8 | 50.0% 44 | 50.0% 10 |
| Playoffs (all) | 49.4% 172 | 47.8% 159 | 60.0% 10 | 100.0% 3 | 42.9% 77 | 58.0% 50 | 51.1% 45 | 51.1% 137 | 27.3% 11 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Staal | 10–18 | 35.7% | 39.3% | 39.1% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Ryan McLeod | 13–14 | 48.1% | 46.8% | 46.8% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 8–14 | 36.4% | 42.9% | 42.6% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Tomas Hertl | 8–10 | 44.4% | 41.5% | 41.6% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| John Tavares | 8–10 | 44.4% | 42.0% | 42.1% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 7–10 | 41.2% | 44.2% | 44.1% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Nick Paul | 9–8 | 52.9% | 44.6% | 44.8% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Anthony Cirelli | 10–7 | 58.8% | 46.5% | 46.9% | a bit unusual (z 1.0) |
| Noah Cates | 8–8 | 50.0% | 52.3% | 52.3% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Phillip Danault | 10–6 | 62.5% | 43.5% | 44.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
| Nic Dowd | 7–9 | 43.8% | 46.8% | 46.7% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Christian Dvorak | 9–7 | 56.3% | 43.1% | 43.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ NYI | 8 | 16 | 50.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs PHI | 14 | 21 | 66.7% |
| 2026-03-26 | vs MIN | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-24 | vs SEA | 8 | 15 | 53.3% |
| 2026-03-20 | @ CGY | 5 | 14 | 35.7% |
| 2026-03-19 | @ EDM | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
| 2026-03-15 | @ SEA | 8 | 14 | 57.1% |
| 2026-03-12 | vs CBJ | 0 | 4 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-10 | vs DET | 1 | 5 | 20.0% |
| 2026-03-06 | @ DET | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs UTA likely opponents: Vincent Trocheck (43%), Kevin Stenlund (46%)8.8 FOW 4–13
- 2026-10-10 vs VAN likely opponents: Elias Pettersson (50%), Aatu Räty (39%)8.3 FOW 4–13
FAQ
What is Evan Rodrigues's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Evan Rodrigues's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Evan Rodrigues win tonight?
When Evan Rodrigues has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Evan Rodrigues better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.