Draw Duel
Noah Cates faceoff stats, 2025-26
PHI · L · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
45.3%
90%: 43.5%–47.2% vs an average regular, on 2,610 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
45.3%
467 won of 1030 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
46.1% / 42.1%
464 strong-side, 318 weak-side draws this season
Next game
6.0 FOW
2026-10-05 vs TBL: 12 draws at 49.2%, range 2–10
Where Cates wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 281 | 123 | 43.8% |
| OZ right | 94 | 37 | 39.4% |
| NZ left (att.) | 34 | 15 | 44.1% |
| NZ right (att.) | 31 | 15 | 48.4% |
| Centre | 248 | 119 | 48.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 28 | 10 | 35.7% |
| NZ right (def.) | 40 | 19 | 47.5% |
| DZ left | 121 | 66 | 54.5% |
| DZ right | 153 | 63 | 41.2% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R36.8%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L37.4%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R37.8%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R38.3%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L38.4%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L38.6%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L58.3%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L58.0%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L56.9%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L55.1%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L54.8%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R54.7%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 53.1% 32 | 54.8% 31 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 46.2% 13 | 60.0% 10 | 55.6% 9 | 46.7% 15 | 50.0% 12 |
| 2025-26 | 45.3% 1030 | 45.8% 840 | 44.1% 136 | 40.7% 54 | 42.7% 375 | 46.7% 381 | 47.1% 274 | 46.1% 464 | 42.1% 318 |
| 2024-25 | 44.6% 1105 | 46.7% 912 | 33.9% 56 | 35.0% 137 | 40.9% 259 | 49.2% 384 | 42.9% 462 | 47.5% 427 | 41.1% 418 |
| 2023-24 | 44.5% 330 | 44.3% 271 | 77.8% 18 | 31.7% 41 | 44.4% 108 | 51.5% 97 | 39.2% 125 | 50.4% 125 | 36.2% 152 |
| Playoffs (all) | 46.9% 113 | 48.2% 83 | 42.3% 26 | 50.0% 4 | 37.9% 58 | 48.1% 27 | 64.3% 28 | 44.6% 65 | 51.4% 35 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby | 38–42 | 47.5% | 39.8% | 40.9% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Bo Horvat | 20–26 | 43.5% | 39.7% | 40.0% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Nick Suzuki | 18–25 | 41.9% | 44.5% | 44.3% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Logan Stankoven | 19–22 | 46.3% | 50.5% | 50.2% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Jack Hughes | 23–16 | 59.0% | 57.5% | 57.6% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Sean Monahan | 8–27 | 22.9% | 42.7% | 41.4% | unusual (z -2.4) |
| Auston Matthews | 13–21 | 38.2% | 37.7% | 37.8% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Sebastian Aho | 10–23 | 30.3% | 43.9% | 43.1% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Dylan Larkin | 9–22 | 29.0% | 43.3% | 42.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Mark Scheifele | 14–17 | 45.2% | 47.6% | 47.5% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Noel Acciari | 11–19 | 36.7% | 40.1% | 39.9% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Nico Hischier | 6–24 | 20.0% | 40.5% | 39.3% | unusual (z -2.3) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs CAR | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ NJD | 6 | 13 | 46.2% |
| 2026-09-30 | vs PIT | 5 | 9 | 55.6% |
| 2026-05-04 | @ CAR | 5 | 18 | 27.8% |
| 2026-05-02 | @ CAR | 8 | 20 | 40.0% |
| 2026-04-29 | vs PIT | 5 | 12 | 41.7% |
| 2026-04-27 | @ PIT | 13 | 18 | 72.2% |
| 2026-04-25 | vs PIT | 6 | 12 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-22 | vs PIT | 5 | 10 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-20 | @ PIT | 7 | 12 | 58.3% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-05 vs TBL likely opponents: Anthony Cirelli (48%), Brayden Point (48%)6.0 FOW 2–10
- 2026-10-08 vs OTT likely opponents: Claude Giroux (35%), Lars Eller (45%)5.4 FOW 2–9
- 2026-10-10 vs BOS likely opponents: Pavel Zacha (45%), Elias Lindholm (40%)5.4 FOW 2–9
- 2026-10-11 vs CAR likely opponents: Jordan Staal (41%), Sebastian Aho (47%)5.7 FOW 2–9
FAQ
What is Noah Cates's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Noah Cates's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Noah Cates win tonight?
When Noah Cates has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Noah Cates better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.