Draw Duel
Noel Acciari faceoff stats, 2025-26
PHI · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
52.0%
90%: 49.8%–54.2% vs an average regular, on 1,866 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
52.0%
309 won of 594 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
53.5% / 42.0%
460 strong-side, 69 weak-side draws this season
Next game
7.0 FOW
2026-10-05 vs TBL: 13 draws at 54.7%, range 3–11
Where Acciari wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 7 | 2 | 28.6% |
| OZ right | 47 | 24 | 51.1% |
| NZ left (att.) | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| NZ right (att.) | 14 | 8 | 57.1% |
| Centre | 65 | 34 | 52.3% |
| NZ left (def.) | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
| NZ right (def.) | 19 | 10 | 52.6% |
| DZ left | 53 | 24 | 45.3% |
| DZ right | 380 | 204 | 53.7% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R43.4%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L43.7%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R44.4%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L44.8%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R44.9%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L45.0%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L64.7%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L64.3%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L63.2%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L61.6%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L61.3%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R61.0%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 58.5% 41 | 65.5% 29 | — 0 | 41.7% 12 | 0.0% 1 | 50.0% 12 | 64.3% 28 | 56.3% 32 | 100.0% 2 |
| 2025-26 | 52.0% 594 | 54.4% 362 | 36.8% 19 | 49.3% 213 | 48.1% 54 | 51.4% 107 | 52.7% 433 | 53.5% 460 | 42.0% 69 |
| 2024-25 | 53.7% 598 | 56.7% 393 | 33.3% 3 | 48.0% 202 | 44.8% 58 | 60.0% 100 | 53.4% 440 | 54.5% 446 | 46.7% 90 |
| 2023-24 | 54.5% 574 | 55.6% 426 | 0.0% 2 | 52.1% 146 | 61.5% 39 | 46.2% 132 | 56.6% 403 | 55.9% 367 | 58.3% 127 |
| Playoffs (all) | 61.0% 59 | 66.7% 36 | 100.0% 2 | 47.6% 21 | 60.0% 5 | 66.7% 12 | 59.5% 42 | 59.2% 49 | 0.0% 1 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Dvorak | 14–17 | 45.2% | 50.9% | 50.5% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Noah Cates | 19–11 | 63.3% | 59.9% | 60.1% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Bo Horvat | 11–18 | 37.9% | 48.2% | 47.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Nico Hischier | 13–14 | 48.1% | 46.7% | 46.8% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Nazem Kadri | 15–8 | 65.2% | 56.5% | 56.9% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Sam Bennett | 15–7 | 68.2% | 57.1% | 57.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.0) |
| Dylan Larkin | 10–12 | 45.5% | 50.4% | 50.2% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Adam Fantilli | 13–7 | 65.0% | 55.8% | 56.2% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 6–14 | 30.0% | 49.5% | 48.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.7) |
| Sebastian Aho | 10–9 | 52.6% | 51.5% | 51.5% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Sean Couturier | 13–6 | 68.4% | 47.8% | 48.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.8) |
| Jordan Staal | 3–16 | 15.8% | 46.1% | 45.0% | unusual (z -2.6) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs CAR | 6 | 14 | 42.9% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ NJD | 7 | 13 | 53.8% |
| 2026-09-30 | vs PIT | 11 | 14 | 78.6% |
| 2026-04-29 | @ PHI | 9 | 10 | 90.0% |
| 2026-04-27 | vs PHI | 6 | 9 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-25 | @ PHI | 4 | 9 | 44.4% |
| 2026-04-22 | @ PHI | 3 | 8 | 37.5% |
| 2026-04-20 | vs PHI | 7 | 14 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-18 | vs PHI | 7 | 9 | 77.8% |
| 2026-04-14 | @ STL | 5 | 9 | 55.6% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-05 vs TBL likely opponents: Anthony Cirelli (52%), Brayden Point (57%)7.0 FOW 3–11
- 2026-10-08 vs OTT likely opponents: Claude Giroux (47%), Lars Eller (51%)6.8 FOW 3–11
- 2026-10-10 vs BOS likely opponents: Pavel Zacha (51%), Elias Lindholm (52%)6.7 FOW 3–11
- 2026-10-11 vs CAR likely opponents: Jordan Staal (46%), Sebastian Aho (51%)6.8 FOW 3–11
FAQ
What is Noel Acciari's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Noel Acciari's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Noel Acciari win tonight?
When Noel Acciari has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Noel Acciari better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.