Draw Duel
Mark Jankowski faceoff stats, 2025-26
CAR · L · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
50.8%
90%: 48.6%–52.9% vs an average regular, on 1,668 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
51.4%
361 won of 703 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
52.0% / 50.0%
327 strong-side, 218 weak-side draws this season
Next game
5.9 FOW
2026-10-06 vs MTL: 12 draws at 49.6%, range 2–10
Where Jankowski wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 158 | 84 | 53.2% |
| OZ right | 90 | 48 | 53.3% |
| NZ left (att.) | 19 | 8 | 42.1% |
| NZ right (att.) | 24 | 12 | 50.0% |
| Centre | 158 | 82 | 51.9% |
| NZ left (def.) | 29 | 15 | 51.7% |
| NZ right (def.) | 15 | 3 | 20.0% |
| DZ left | 121 | 63 | 52.1% |
| DZ right | 89 | 46 | 51.7% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R42.0%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L42.6%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R43.1%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R43.6%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L43.6%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L43.8%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L63.4%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L63.1%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L62.1%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L60.4%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L60.1%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R60.0%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 51.3% 39 | 50.0% 32 | — 0 | 57.1% 7 | 50.0% 16 | 40.0% 15 | 75.0% 8 | 52.9% 17 | 46.7% 15 |
| 2025-26 | 51.4% 703 | 52.0% 621 | 50.0% 18 | 45.3% 64 | 53.2% 248 | 49.0% 245 | 51.9% 210 | 52.0% 327 | 50.0% 218 |
| 2024-25 | 50.6% 433 | 51.3% 347 | 72.7% 11 | 44.0% 75 | 49.1% 116 | 53.3% 135 | 49.5% 182 | 47.8% 232 | 49.2% 120 |
| 2023-24 | 50.3% 163 | 49.3% 134 | 37.5% 8 | 61.9% 21 | 47.5% 80 | 46.9% 32 | 56.9% 51 | 51.6% 95 | 46.4% 56 |
| Playoffs (all) | 53.0% 330 | 54.2% 299 | 50.0% 10 | 38.1% 21 | 54.3% 116 | 52.7% 129 | 51.8% 85 | 57.9% 145 | 47.9% 117 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Eller | 21–23 | 47.7% | 48.5% | 48.5% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Nic Dowd | 23–15 | 60.5% | 50.6% | 51.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| Phillip Danault | 14–16 | 46.7% | 46.4% | 46.4% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Anton Lundell | 12–13 | 48.0% | 48.4% | 48.4% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Nick Suzuki | 13–10 | 56.5% | 50.2% | 50.5% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Sean Couturier | 9–13 | 40.9% | 45.1% | 44.9% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Sam Carrick | 10–11 | 47.6% | 47.2% | 47.3% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Jake Evans | 8–12 | 40.0% | 44.9% | 44.7% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Luke Glendening | 9–11 | 45.0% | 45.3% | 45.2% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Tomas Nosek | 13–6 | 68.4% | 52.5% | 53.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Shane Pinto | 13–6 | 68.4% | 49.2% | 49.9% | a bit unusual (z 1.7) |
| Colton Sissons | 10–8 | 55.6% | 45.2% | 45.5% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ PHI | 7 | 14 | 50.0% |
| 2026-10-02 | vs WSH | 6 | 13 | 46.2% |
| 2026-09-29 | vs FLA | 7 | 12 | 58.3% |
| 2026-06-14 | @ VGK | 5 | 7 | 71.4% |
| 2026-06-11 | vs VGK | 8 | 15 | 53.3% |
| 2026-06-09 | @ VGK | 5 | 7 | 71.4% |
| 2026-06-06 | @ VGK | 15 | 23 | 65.2% |
| 2026-06-04 | vs VGK | 4 | 12 | 33.3% |
| 2026-06-02 | vs VGK | 5 | 12 | 41.7% |
| 2026-05-29 | vs MTL | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs MTL likely opponents: Nick Suzuki (49%), Phillip Danault (50%)5.9 FOW 2–10
- 2026-10-08 vs VAN likely opponents: Elias Pettersson (56%), Aatu Räty (44%)6.3 FOW 3–10
- 2026-10-10 vs CHI likely opponents: Frank Nazar (54%), Anton Frondell (68%)7.0 FOW 3–11
- 2026-10-11 vs PHI likely opponents: Christian Dvorak (47%), Noel Acciari (48%)6.2 FOW 3–10
FAQ
What is Mark Jankowski's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Mark Jankowski's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Mark Jankowski win tonight?
When Mark Jankowski has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Mark Jankowski better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.