Draw Duel
Lars Eller faceoff stats, 2025-26
FLA · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
51.5%
90%: 49.4%–53.5% vs an average regular, on 2,439 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
54.0%
332 won of 615 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
55.8% / 50.0%
371 strong-side, 126 weak-side draws this season
Next game
5.5 FOW
2026-10-04 vs ANA: 10 draws at 52.8%, range 2–9
Where Eller wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 103 | 58 | 56.3% |
| OZ right | 34 | 23 | 67.6% |
| NZ left (att.) | 21 | 17 | 81.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 21 | 11 | 52.4% |
| Centre | 118 | 62 | 52.5% |
| NZ left (def.) | 28 | 16 | 57.1% |
| NZ right (def.) | 15 | 4 | 26.7% |
| DZ left | 219 | 116 | 53.0% |
| DZ right | 56 | 25 | 44.6% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R42.7%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L43.3%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R43.8%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R44.3%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L44.3%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L44.5%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L64.0%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L63.7%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L62.7%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L61.1%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L60.7%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R60.7%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 41.7% 24 | 50.0% 14 | 50.0% 2 | 25.0% 8 | 20.0% 5 | 70.0% 10 | 22.2% 9 | 28.6% 7 | 41.7% 12 |
| 2025-26 | 54.0% 615 | 53.8% 543 | 80.0% 10 | 51.6% 62 | 59.1% 137 | 54.2% 203 | 51.3% 275 | 55.8% 371 | 50.0% 126 |
| 2024-25 | 52.2% 751 | 52.8% 650 | 69.2% 13 | 45.5% 88 | 45.5% 200 | 58.1% 260 | 51.5% 291 | 52.4% 319 | 48.6% 259 |
| 2023-24 | 52.3% 932 | 52.8% 742 | 67.6% 34 | 46.2% 156 | 56.7% 164 | 50.4% 260 | 51.8% 508 | 55.4% 495 | 50.0% 276 |
| Playoffs (all) | 53.0% 117 | 53.6% 110 | — 0 | 42.9% 7 | 52.6% 19 | 51.3% 39 | 54.2% 59 | 59.1% 66 | 48.3% 29 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Jankowski | 23–21 | 52.3% | 51.5% | 51.5% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Nick Suzuki | 19–8 | 70.4% | 51.5% | 52.5% | a bit unusual (z 2.0) |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 11–13 | 45.8% | 50.6% | 50.4% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Jake Evans | 8–15 | 34.8% | 45.9% | 45.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Jordan Staal | 7–15 | 31.8% | 48.2% | 47.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.5) |
| Luke Kunin | 9–10 | 47.4% | 53.8% | 53.6% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| J.T. Compher | 17–2 | 89.5% | 53.4% | 54.7% | unusual (z 3.2) |
| Logan Stankoven | 11–8 | 57.9% | 56.4% | 56.5% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Christian Dvorak | 7–12 | 36.8% | 46.6% | 46.3% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Nazem Kadri | 9–9 | 50.0% | 53.6% | 53.5% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Shane Wright | 12–6 | 66.7% | 59.4% | 59.7% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Casey Cizikas | 6–12 | 33.3% | 47.9% | 47.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | @ SJS | 8 | 15 | 53.3% |
| 2026-09-29 | @ CAR | 2 | 9 | 22.2% |
| 2026-04-25 | vs CAR | 7 | 12 | 58.3% |
| 2026-04-23 | vs CAR | 0 | 7 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-20 | @ CAR | 12 | 18 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-18 | @ CAR | 7 | 9 | 77.8% |
| 2026-04-15 | vs TOR | 3 | 9 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-12 | @ NJD | 6 | 12 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ NYI | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs FLA | 4 | 10 | 40.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs ANA likely opponents: Tim Washe (46%), Mikael Granlund (54%)5.5 FOW 2–9
- 2026-10-05 vs BOS likely opponents: Pavel Zacha (52%), Elias Lindholm (45%)4.7 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-06 vs DET likely opponents: Andrew Copp (51%), J.T. Compher (53%)5.0 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-06 vs LAK likely opponents: Quinton Byfield (57%), Erik Haula (52%)5.6 FOW 2–9
- 2026-10-08 vs PHI likely opponents: Christian Dvorak (50%), Noel Acciari (49%)5.1 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-10 vs MIN likely opponents: Joel Eriksson Ek (55%), Ryan Hartman (55%)5.7 FOW 2–9
- 2026-10-10 vs NSH likely opponents: Ryan O'Reilly (52%), Jack Drury (48%)5.0 FOW 2–8
FAQ
What is Lars Eller's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Lars Eller's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Lars Eller win tonight?
When Lars Eller has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Lars Eller better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.